Who is in power? On the horns of a dilemma

Editorial
November 12, 2007

Ethiopian opposition figure Brook Kebede (left) of the CUDP-Kinijit speaks with U.S. Congressman Chris Smith as Engineer Gizachew Shiferaw looks on (Photo: Tamagne Beyene; Sept 26, 2007)

The visiting CUDP officials and accompanying hosts are pictured above with The Honorable Donald Payne, member of the US Congress and author of HR 2003 (File Photo: Kinijit-DC).

“THEY”, of course, are the Kinijit leaders who have been touring North America, Europe and other places over the past couple of months. As they begin to head home following their wildly successful tour, a constant drumbeat of government propaganda awaits them. The objective seems clear. Dampen the public euphoria over their incredibly successful international tour, soil their reputations, and hopefully, scare them into not returning. The short message to them is, “Return at your own risk!”

The government believes the so-called pardon was a contract for the Kinijit leaders to play deaf, mute and blind. By accepting the “pardon”, according to the government, the Kinijit leaders have taken a vow of silence. Strangely enough, not only are they prohibited from having discussions with representatives of the Ethiopian government, they are also forbidden from seeking out the sympathetic ears of public officials in the host countries they are visiting. Ironically, the government conveniently overlooks its own multimillion dollar lobbying efforts to influence and shape public policy in the same host countries. What is good for the goose is certainly not good for the gander, by the government’s calculation.

If the Kinijit leaders are liable for complaining about human rights violations in the legislatures of their host counties, that would be old hat. The whole world has long known the deplorable state of human rights in Ethiopia . There is nothing they can say about human rights abuses in Ethiopia that has not already been said umpteen times by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch or the U.S. State Department. As to their alleged alliance and collaboration with certain organizations disapproved by the government, there is not a shred of evidence to support that claim. If they are to be charged with treason, the United States government, who benefited from the treasonous acts, should also be charged as a co-conspirator.

Why make a thinly-veiled threat of arrest and imprisonment at this time? The government is apparently very concerned about an explosive resurgence of popularity for the Kinijit leaders upon their return. Perhaps they could be scared into seeking political asylum in the West. As they have repeatedly stated, they will all return because they love their country. They are also prepared to face the wrath of a ruthless dictatorship. Their choices are limited. As Mrs. Benazir Buhtto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, wrote in the New York Times last week on General Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of martial law, “It is dangerous to stand up to a military dictatorship, but more dangerous not to.” W/t Birtukan Midekssa and the Kinijit leaders know all too well that it is dangerous to stand up to Meles Zenawi’s dictatorship, but more dangerous not to.

The threat of jail is an ever present reality to the Kinijit leaders. But 21 months of imprisonment has not broken their spirit or the Kinijit Spirit. It has not dampened their enthusiasm for democracy or their commitment to the rule of law. They and the government know that the Spirit of Kinijit remains hidden in the hearts of the Ethiopian people intact.

Putting them back in jail on trumped up charges has its obvious disadvantages and consequences both domestically and internationally. It is likely that another arbitrary detention could transform these leaders from heroes to superheroes. But with 21 months under their belt, jail time would not come to them as a surprise. But the more likely scenario is a chapter out of the Pakistani/Burmese Book of Dictatorship. Like Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma and Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan , Birtukan Midekssa and the others may have think about house arrest and constant harassment as an ordinary fact of daily life upon their return.

The triumphant return of the Kinijit leaders from their tour underscores the tenuous nature of the regime’s hold on power, and its total unpopularity with the people. But the usual arsenal of jail, intimidation, propaganda and dirty tricks campaigns against the Kinijit leaders will prove futile. Resort to repressive and intimidatory techniques further demonstrates the government’s complete lack of interest and contempt for a peaceful and negotiated settlement of disputes, and in national reconciliation.

Meles and his regime should understand, as has Musharaf in Pakistan , and rather reluctantly, the junta leaders in Burma , that the answer to political problems lies in dialogue, not brute force. But Meles is unwilling to take advantage of the opportunity for a genuine dialogue with the Kinijit leaders either out of personal antipathy, or genuine fear of losing the political argument on democracy and the moral argument on his regime’s legitimacy, or both. That would not be out of character. Meles will never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

The lack of dialogue between the government and the Kinijit leaders and other groups is fueling a gathering storm of opposition at a time when the dark clouds of war and insurrection hang ominously over the land. The winds of war are blowing hard in the Horn of Africa, and the ensuing firestorm will consume all who remain on the warpath. There will be no winners, only losers. This is a prospect Meles Zenawi and his regime should seriously consider while sitting precariously on the “horns of a dilemma” they have handcrafted.