Regardless of the diversity of opinion in the Diaspora, a consensus of
unambiguous support for the democratization of Ethiopia as it is
understood in the West has been a superseding facet for the past two
decades. And that is no small feat. Between the mid ’60s and the fall
of the Derg at the beginning of the ’90s, what was then a small
Diaspora, but with a disproportionately powerful voice in politics,
had mitigated the rhetoric of public discourse to the far left of
Marxist thought. I still remember reading, in total amazement, old
Ethiopian publications from the ’60s and ’70s, pioneered by intelligent
young people like Hagos GebreYesus, Desalegn Rahemato and Endrias
Eshete, as they ranted against perceived exploitation of innocent
Ethiopians by Western capitalists; how vital Ethiopia was as a dumping
ground for the excess goods produced by imperialists; and how great
the dictatorship of the proletariat really is. (Endrias Eshete’s passion
for dictatorship – though not that of the working class anymore – still
endures, by the way.) It took about two decades before the Diaspora
was able to move beyond this false start; and it took the infusion of
a new generation in the ’80s, more decisively in the ’90s, for the long
delayed overhaul in both methodology and substance to take hold. The
intellectual rebirth is now best embodied by the weekly articles of
the brilliant Professor from LA, Alemayehu GebreMariam. In short, the
Diaspora is now positively ingrained in mainstream political thought,
far away from – to borrow a phrase from Lenin – infantile extremism.
The 2005 elections was the culmination of the Diaspora’s renaissance
in the ’90s and 2000’s, when it was able to entrench itself as a
strong and united voice in the CUD, both before and after the
elections. It is implausible to envisage the success of the CUD’s last
minute offensive in the countryside without the financial backing of
the Diaspora, which impacted heavily on the outcome of the election.
Ethiopian political dynamics is now very different than it was in 2005
of course, but there is an important last minute role for the Diaspora
to play, yes, even at this late stage of the elections.
Here are some possibilities:
1: ENDORSEMENTS:
Endorsements are an integral part of modern elections throughout the
world. Whatever pundits may say about their power to sway votes, they
are passionately sought by politicians; which is a mark of their
symbolic power. And in politics image is half the bankable asset.
Swaying votes by mere endorsement is too ambitious an undertaking, but
doubt not that endorsements will not only help to strengthen the
beleaguered opposition in this difficult election year(just how
difficult is amply shown by the new HRW report) but will also help to
single out the viable ones( or the viable one) in a crowded field
where up to twelve candidates are competing for a single seat in
Addis.
Not too many people may have been swayed by Oprah’s endorsement of
Obama, but the amount of news and excitement it generated was a huge
boost for his campaign. And the pundits who seriously wonder if his
presidency would at all have been possible without the stirring effect
of her endorsement are not few in numbers. But celebrity endorsements
are not possible for those who live in Ethiopia for obvious reasons,
yet is something that should be considered seriously by those who have
opted for exile.Exiled artists have a large following in Ethiopia,
and their predominantly young followers—who constitute the majority in
Ethiopia—are predisposed to at least listen to their views. This is
power that must not be abused, taken for granted; nor, at a time when
the national issue is as important as it is now, must it be wasted.
The kind of endorsement common to Iranian politics, in which exiled
groups of academics, scientists and public figures publicly endorse
the party or candidate of their choice, could potentially be important
in the Ethiopian context, too. The Diaspora has an ample reservoir
from Ethiopia’s Who’s Who in every conceivable field, and many voters
in Ethiopia—including the undecided ones—would be fascinated to
learn of their endorsements.
The idea of civic responsibility will hardly be new to this group, nor
the fact that in this wired world their access to voters in Ethiopia
seriously curtailed by place of residence. What is probably lacking so
far is someone who will take the initiative.
2: CYBER ACTIVISM— The court of world opinion.
Few people know what Twitter is in Ethiopia .But those tasked by the
government to make sure that what information goes out to the world is
highly regulated, particularly in the event of street protests
(which are unlikely and not desirable), have nightmares about the
possibilities of Twitter. What was casually launched as one more
addition to social media by three innovative Americans in 2006, less
than a year after the 2005 elections in Ethiopia, has been
inadvertently catapulted by the last Iranian election in to a powerful
weapon of peaceful political activism.
Tweets go over two networks, the cyber world and text messages of
mobiles (cell phones). They are charmingly easy to use, are
specifically designed to to spread fast because they are apt to be
picked and retransmitted by other Twitters; unlike other social
medias, like email, which are neither public nor broadcast like
Twitter does.In other words, Twitter is within reach of the vast
majority of the Diaspora, and for the first time ever will directly
link it with tens of millions of people throughout the world—the court
of world opinion. The monopoly of media organizations, who habitually
ignore most stories about Ethiopia, could now be overturned for the
first time.
Potential Twitters from Ethiopia during the elections, who will be few
in numbers but could easily overcome their disadvantage in numbers by
sheer force of will, face an overpowering predicament. The government
will most probably tamper with the internet and SMS during the
elections, as did the Iranian government, which will severely limit
their ability to transmit. But the evidence is that the mass of Tweets
came from Diaspora Iranians who relayed information they collected
from family, friends, embassies, NGOs and political organizations. A
similar mass of information, in case the need arises, by the Ethiopian
Diaspora that overwhelms the cyber world will reinforce the confidence
of Ethiopians that they are not alone and involve tens of millions
around the world in an intimate, urgent way with events in Ethiopia. A
sufficiently outraged Westerners—if there is due cause—wiil
instinctively reach out to their elcected representatives in large
numbers; which could change—at long last—Western policy towards
Ethiopia by bringing forth the issue of human rights; something the
Diaspora had fought for almost two decades now.
But none of these will be possible without a determined minority
taking the lead; some working in groups, others alone in the cyber
world—the new weapon of the oppressed.
Tidbits:
BRIEF NEWS FROM ETHIOPIA
Azeb Mesfin to face Welay Aschalew
PM Meles Zenawi’s wife will face an electoral opponent fielded by
Mederek in this year’s elections. Medrek’s candidate is Welay
Aschalew, who is broadly thought to be sufficiently credible to make
this at least an interesting contest; assuming of course a level
playing field. Azeb is running as an incumbent in her Welqaiyt
constituency, where many residents are apprehensive of a settlement
scheme by the regional government which they fear will eventually
alter the demographics of the area. Azeb is chair of an important
parliamentary committee, which was supposed to have pushed her out of
her husband’s shadow; but which has not happened so far.
Gebru Asrat is challenging Addisalem Balema(PhD), a long time
Ethiopian Ambassador to China who returned from Beijing to Mekele to
work in EFFORT, the mysterious business empire of the TPLF. Addisalem
is not the grassroots campaigner type, and foreign observers are
expected to be visibly present in Mekele, an opening that Gebru is apt
to maximize.
Security cameras to be installed on main roads
The installation of federal police commissioned security cameras is
underway on Addis Ababa’s main thoroughfares. The cameras are being
installed as part of the government’s extensive preparation against
possible post election riots after the May elections.
An undisclosed amount of cameras have been imported from China; much
to the irritant of some countries that had hoped(not for commercial
reasons) to provide the hardware as well as the expertise to run and
maintain them; according to sources.
The cameras have so far been installed on Bole road; but because they
will be too provocative few expect them to be installed in Merkato,
hub of post election protests in 2005.It will be interesting to see if
the government thinks otherwise.
