One of the documents is a 52 page guidelines for Ethiopian embassies and consulates around the globe. The document, apparently issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Addis Abeba, contains a comprehensive plan for countering and eventually defeating the regime’s opponents in exile. What is most striking about the document is that none of the strategies enumerated in it call for engaging the opposition in honest debates to start the process of national reconciliation. Instead, the Ministry instructs its embassies and consulates to implement a dubious scheme, which may be more appropriately dubbed as a “Triple B Plan” (befriend, bribe and/or blackmail).
The 3-B plan mandates the embassies and consulates to engage in a multi-faceted and elaborate effort to dissuade Ethiopians that have “succumbed to the opposition’s propaganda of blind hate” and win them over as allies of the regime. Accordingly, the document outlines a comprehensive strategy with specific short-term and long-term goals as well as activities for producing each intended outcomes. The plan also includes a timeframe for producing each output. It is an impressive plan!
One of the major strategies advocated by the 3-B is the use of family networks, friends, school and business contacts as well as other social relationships to befriend influential exiled opponents of the regime and bring them into the woyanne fold. It also offers, among other things, a package of financial and other incentives to rein in the regime’s opponents. Those enticed would be able to travel to Ethiopia unhindered, would have access to urban land for constructing houses for themselves or family members and would be granted “green cards” that would enable them to make investments in the country even if they may have taken the citizenship of other countries.
So the plan is set for those in exile willing to sell their souls to the devil! And time will show how many will succumb to the woyanne offer. My sense is that the woyanne will be disappointed. The measure will not significantly alter the status quo. In fact, the wide publicity the measure is getting among Ethiopians in the Diaspora may discourage many more on the fringes from entangling themselves in this scheme. The social ostracization and stigma that is sure to follow one’s involvement in the program would be too much to bear even for the most unscrupulous hodams among us!
For those political opponents not favorably responding to the regime’s overtures and persist in their ways, the 3-B plan calls for draconian coercive measures. Blackmailing them into submission is an important method of choice outlined in the document. The spreading of fabricated rumors and allegations about the regime’s opponents is a key component of the new plan. The intention is to markedly degrade the influence of the vocal opponents of the regime among the Diaspora communities. In some cases lawsuits would be filed in host county courts on trumped-up charges of genocide and embezzlement. The plan also instructs the embassies to exploit potential weaknesses in the immigration status of opponents of the regime in various countries. They are required to use diplomatic channels for pressuring host governments in restricting opposition activities.
Woyanne would not be able to achieve its goals in this respect as well. Yes, frivolous lawsuits may be filed against individuals but winning in a court of law in the west, where most the Ethiopian émigrés are, would be very difficult for the regime. There is also the real possibility of countersuing the regime and its leaders for genocide and fleecing of the country.
The other document making rounds among the exile Ethiopian communities appears to be an internal OLF memo. The document provides rare and vivid insights into the strategic thinking within the secessionist organization. The group has already denied the authenticity of the document calling it a “fabricated and blasphemous lies” spread by the TPLF in order to “create mistrust among the organizations that formed the Alliance [AFD].” It is not, however, entirely clear what aspect of the document the OLF is objecting to. For anyone familiar with the group’s publications, one can easily see striking similarities between the ideas expressed in the memo and the group’s signature positions that it has been advancing for over 30 years.
In my view, a credible approach for the OLF would have been to accept the memo as authentic but challenge the timing and motive for its release to the general public. The group would have been able to explain the purpose of the memo in much the same way as Ato Wondem WoldeEmanuel did in his recent article, “Cast the evil, their forlorn beliefs, out!” According to Ato Wondem the memo was meant for members and supporters of the OLF and as such the general public’s surprise with its content was unwarranted. Ato Wondem’s conclusion is debatable. That aside, OLF’s vehement disowning of the memo has not improved its credibility with Ethiopians.
In a perverse way, reading the memo had caused me to reflect on my own perception of the OLF. First, the organization seems to enjoy a measure of internal democracy. The leadership seems to actively seek the inputs and feedbacks of its constituency in important matters such as policy and strategic considerations. The OLF also appears to be methodical in its approach and long-term oriented in its planning. In this respect, the memo contains indicators that show that the OLF does engage in critical and scholarly analyses of threats and opportunities. It also seems to evolve strategies and action plans through a slow and deliberative consultative process. For instance, the memo in question clearly showed that the OLF has been considering forming the AFD for a long time. The group had explored collaboration possibilities with Southern parties and groups. The latter’s apprehension about the OLF i tself had somewhat complicated the matter for the group. Nevertheless, it had managed to forge an alliance with smaller southern ethnic liberation fronts. There are also references in the memo that showed that the OLF has been sending out feelers to larger opposition groups and entities. When the CUDP bite into OLF’s bait unexpectedly and agreed to form the AFD without challenging even the inclusion of “self-determination up to secession”, the OLF was surprised, but quickly moved to seal the deal with CUDP!
By contrast, very little is known about how deliberative the CUDP has been before it made the decision to join the AFD. The utter surprise and confusion seen among many CUDP members when the announcement on the formation of the AFD was made is any indication, there may have not been any effort made to canvas the opinions of the regular members of the Party about this major decision. It is clear that the decision was made at the leadership level but we are not sure at what level.
The intent of this article was not the discussion of the two memos in any detail. However, the organizational sophistication of the OLF I saw in that memo heightened my anxiety about the AFD. I do not share in the enthusiasm of many of my compatriots for the AFD in its present form. I am concerned that the CUDP, as an equal partner in a group dominated by secessionist forces, would be out-voted and out-maneuvered to the detriment of pan-Ethiopianism.
Part of my fear is also rooted in the recent history of the struggle of our people for democracy and the rule of law. There were so many false starts, false hopes, and undeserved hurts of our people in the last 30 years or so. The political elite particularly the segment that espouses a united and democratic Ethiopia has not been very responsible in its actions and its leadership had been very dismal. It had advanced various approaches for solving Ethiopia’s problems and the results have been very disappointing and had further deepened the misery of our people. In short, the record of accomplishment of the “unity” seeking political elite has been very poor and I would argue that Ethiopians should start raising questions when new projects such as the AFD are advanced by t he same group again. Ethiopians should be able to discern the difference between personal opinions and reasoned positions even when the opinions are that of highly credentialized individuals.
Readers may recall how the pan-Ethiopianist political elite portrayed the Eritrean secessionist movements as movements for democratizing Ethiopia as a whole. The same elite that told us that the Eritreans would not proceed to declare an independent Eritrea once they realize that “progressive” Ethiopians had recognized the rights of Eritrea, are back at it again telling us how the OLF has abandoned its secessionist agenda. Instead of insisting that the OLF declare its commitment to a unified and democratic Ethiopia, the same political elite of the “unity camp” is now very busy telling us that it is alright for the CUDP to accept the woyanne constitution in order to “attract” the OLF to form the AFD. Otherwise, the argument goes, the OLF would have joined the woyanne! In the views of the same political class, it is also alright for the AFD not to include the name “Ethiopia” or that we should not be concerned about the involvement of the EPLF in the AFD.
It may appear to be an unreasonable thing to say. I will say it anyway! In my view the “unity camp” may be likened to an ostrich that buries its head in the sand hoping that the danger will pass without inflicting harm on it. With the AFD, the “unity camp” has entered into another self-deluding cycle that may eventuate in the further dismemberment of Ethiopia. To me, it is very delusional to believe that the likes of the OLF with an armed wing will share power with a CUDP, which is committed to peaceful struggle, once the woyanne is removed from power. This is not an argument for keeping the woyanne in power. It is an argument for the need to revise the AFD agreement to minimize such eventualities.
As things currently stand, there would not be any possibility for the CUDP to enforce the AFD agreement should the OLF renege its commitment after the woyanne. It will have the guns to impose its will on Ethiopians. In my view, if the OLF is serious about the AFD and expects full support for the alliance, it has to compromise on the AFD agreement to partially ally the fears of many about its long-term intentions. There cannot be full support for the AFD when the OLF continues to hold positions that are utterly unacceptable to a large segment of Ethiopians.
If one goes by the current euphoria about the AFD emanating from the “unity camp”, the pan-Ethiopianist elit appears to be yet again on the verge of committing another monumental blunder. I am afraid the “unity camp” is destined not to ever get it right! But, Ethiopians should say no more! Those in the AFD should be clearly told that the resources of pan-Ethiopinists will not again fund secessionist forces and will not enhance the legitimacy of secessionists bent on dismembering our Ethiopia! Not again!
