Well, if they go to war, it will be their first one as the 1998-2000 War was between Meles and Isayas on one side and the purged TPLF leaders (Siye, Gebru Asrat, Tsadkan etc) on the other.
When Isaias invaded Ethiopia in May 1998, the TPLF leaders – (banished earlier to Tigrai from Addis) – wanted the Meles government in Addis to declare war on Eritrea. War was raging for six days but Meles threw a gag order over the state-owned media. Meles was quietly trying to persuade Isaias to call off the invasion. After all, Ethiopia was firmly in the hand of an Eritrean; so, why fire even a single shot?
Well, much to the anger of Meles, Mr. Isaias was determined to show off his military muscle, and punish those anti-Shabia guys who were in Tigrai.
Isaias made a huge blunder.
Eritrean bombs dropped on school children in Mekelle sparked off nationwide anger not only against Isaias but also Meles. Ethiopians were already calling first for the arrest of Meles, who was – and is seen to this very day – as a self-acclaimed Eritrean mercenary who championed Eritrean independence while making sure Ethiopia was a landlocked nation that would depend on Eritrea for eternity.
While Ethiopians were making war preparations, the unofficial song became Ke Badme Mels, Wede Meles (which roughly means we will arrest Meles after reclaiming Badme from the Eritreans).
The song was a blessing in disguise for Meles; it helped him to buy precious time to prepare himself for what his rivals had planned in public once they re-take Badme back from the Eritreans who had occupied it. In other words, the song made
Meles no sitting duck. He maintained a very low profile even Western journalists wrongly reported that he was under house-arrest.
Meles was very clever he acted like he threw all his weight behind the nationwide war of resistance against Eritrea. Eritreans were being deported, and when asked by the media why he was allowing the mass deportation, he said, We will deport anyone even if we don’t like the color of their eyes.” Actually, he was lying. He was trying to look more Catholic than the pope, and comfort his TPLF accusers who were eyeing him as the enemy in their midst. It was a shrewd move that worked out very well. We said he was lying because recently he told an Eritrean opposition website the truth. When the Eritreans asked him why he allowed Eritrean deportation, he bluntly told them the circumstances in Ethiopia were beyond his control; and there were angry men in power.” The reference of “angry men” was to the group led by Siye Abraha and all others who Meles later disenfranchise in a mass purge in 2001.
Meles kept building up confidence among TPLF officials, who dropped their suspicions after the huge victory over Badme in 1999.
Actually, winning Badme for Meles was winning a battle, and not the War, which was one year away – and should be won, you know it, for Eritrea!
By 2000, when Ethiopian forces poised to take over Asmara, Meles had quietly consolidated his power in Addis, placed his men in key military and security positions, and paved the way for an Eritrean victory by tying both warring parties to a binding international arbitration.
He ended the war like no other war: within 24 hours, and without any preconditions. Worse still, he set the Algiers Peace Agreement on defunct colonial treaties of the 1900 that Italy authored to punish Menelik’s Ethiopia. The delegation that was supposed to represent Ethiopia was headed by an Eritrean – Yemane Jamaica, and sent to The Hague. The “Ethiopian delegation” surprised the Boundary Commission jurists by arguing in favor of Eritrea. For instance, when the Court declared that the Tsorena district belonged to Ethiopia, the “Ethiopian” delegation said, “Oh, no. We don’t want what is not ours. Tserona belongs to Eritrea.”
And Badme? Meles was already pushing to the court documents that favor Eritrea, including a map which showed Badme inside Eritrea.
Back in Addis, the TPLF officials half-heartedly tried to accuse their Eritrean boss of “treason.” He knew they would one day challenge him as an Eritrean mercenary. Therefore, he was ready for them; he way lying in wait, and when they came half-prepared, he destroyed them with full force.
What’s sad is five years later in 2005, the opposition parties, mainly the scholarly CUD, failed to learn a big lesson from the demise of TPLF leaders in 2001. They completely forgot the group in power is a blend of true criminal thugs and profoundly anti-Ethiopian mercenaries. Any less description is an understatement, and God knows who would be the next prey to make a suicidal move by dealing with them as if they have the protection of law in the country.
To cut a long story short, how do you feel now that UNMEE is gone? Do you think the two Eritrean groups would go to war?
Both Meles and Isaias Afewerki’s main concern is “Ethiopia shouldn’t slip into the hands of Ethiopians.” Meles in the meantime has assured his Eritrean counterpart: “Ethiopia wouldn’t go to war unless Eritrea declares an all-out war.” Well, this transpires as, “Mr. Afwerki, you have every right to do whatever you like anywhere in Ethiopia provided that you leave me alone in my office at Arat Kilo.”
On the other hand, some Ethiopian commentators have begun to indicate in their essays that Meles Zenawi will step down after two years. They are getting spoilt; they forget they are under occupation.
Our guess is much more scary.
At least 10 years from now, Meles is still chocking Ethiopia. His main backer? Yes, it’s Beijing. After all, Meles Zenawi’s most trusted, most notorious and powerful security people operating behind the TPLF facade – have alreaday finalized a year-long training in China.
One more notice: don’t forget that TPLF was critically wounded way back in 1996, when General Hayelom Araya was assassinated at the pinnacle of the Meles-Isaias friendship. When TPLF officials failed to act over the murder of the one and only Hayelom, they were taken care of in 2001. TPLF died then.
By the way, if we refer to Meles as a TPLF leader, pardon us: it is like the saying: “Old habits die hard.”
So, unmee is gone. What does it mean? Are we going back to war? Don’t make us laugh. Send in your comments, please.
Zenawi’s sinister agenda would radically change the geopolitics of the region
Dear Editor:
I agree to most of your historical analysis about the treasonous act of Meles Zenawi. But i also respectfully disagree on what comes after UNMEE’s departure.
My view is that there is a bad blood between the leadership in Eritrea and the Meles Groups. The funny thing is that both leaderships are fighting for the interest of Eritrea to the point of saying i am better than you for the people of Eritrea. This has been shown on the Interviews made to Meles Zenawi and Sebehat Nega. They have clearly stated that they will be the gaurdians of Eritrea in case of any attacks from Ethiopia or other neighbouring countries.
What we have a fact at present is that this regimes can not co-exist side by side. And the strategy choosen by Meles and his TPLF leadership is becoming a known fact which could change the demographics of the entire horn. This hidden agenda of Meles is to unite the Tigrigna speaking people of Eritrea and Ethiopia (Tigrai) as one country leaving the rest of Ethiopia in turmoil. Meles believes in the supremacy of his ethnic group on others and pretty much knows that this hidden agenda can be easily entertained by the majority of his ethnic group. Only few knowledgable people can resist this dangerous move.
There are countless evidence to the formation of the Abay Tigray empire. One of it is the ceding of lands to sudan and the assembly of Eritrean opposition forces in Northern Ethiopia. The infamous book written by Meles Zenawi two decades ago titled “Ye Ertra Hizb Tigle KeYet Wedyet” is a good example to the motives behind this mans’ hidden moves.
So surely, there will be a war and poor Ethiopians will pay the price as they did last time not for Ethiopia, but just for the ego of this dangerous Man by the name of Meles.-(D.D.)
Editor’s comment – The idea that Meles Zenawi’s intention is to build “Abay Tigrai” (Greater Tigrai) is mainly a scare tactic Meles often uses to convey to the rest of Ethiopia a message that nothing would be left of Ethiopia if he is forced out of office.
A “Greater Tigrai” – meaning Tigrai plus Eritrea – would have been possible if Meles had:
A strong domestic support both in Tigrai and Eritrea for the formation of “Greater Tigrai.” The naked truth is there is no secessionist sentiment in Tigrai whatsoever. Rather, the opposite is true: there is widespread resentment in the region that an anti-Ethiopian man is still in power. On the other hand, it is quite something else in Eritrea, where the folks see Meles as “their man in Damascus.” Anyone who promotes the idea of “Greater Tigrai” either has a vested dubious interest, or knows nothing about the psychology of the people in Tigrai and Eritrea. Tigrai is profoundly Ethiopian from head to toe, and to try to lump it with Eritrea is like esatina chid (fire and straw).
Unless forced, there is no reason Meles would abandon Ethiopia because he runs a) a huge business empire – all TPLF companies that Sebhat Nega controls consist of the tip of an iceberg b) a huge security network controlled by a clandestine group carefully formed from the ranks of former TPLF fedayeen c) an army controlled by sixth-grade army generals groomed for a long time by Meles himself from the ranks of former TPLF rebels. For them, it is either Meles or death, not “Ethiopia or death.” d) In the eyes of Meles and Isaias, to abandon power in Ethiopia means to expose Eritrean sovereignty to the enemy (i.e. Ethiopia).
There is no formidable opposition group in the country. This gives Meles the confidence to remain in power indefinitely. (To reverse this, it is no brainer that all opposition Ethiopian groups should work out a common strategy to make the Meles ‘government’ ungovernable, and dislodge him by any means possible).
Given the above factors, therefore, the idea that Meles would go for “Greater Tigrai” is simply an illusion.
