Many of those who are familiar with my write-ups must have been wondering why I have been so silent of late, given the momentous events unfolding in Ethiopia, as Meles and his puppets go through the electoral motions of 2010. Rest assured it is not because of lack of interest or concern on my part! At times we all run out of sensible things to say or do, and at such times, I figured it is better just to reflect. But, what has changed?
Well, I have said all that I had to say over the last five years, since the debacle of 2005 elections! My ideas and those of many who share similar views, have done nothing to stop Meles’ 2010 electoral juggernaut, but I have no doubt that many of us who passionately believe in the sovereignty of Ethiopia and its peoples, are learning all the time and, hopefully, are correcting our approaches as we struggle to tackle this perennial problem.
Meles will have his elections and will win! What else could be the purpose of muzzling the opposition, incarcerating them, forcing them into exile, intimidating them and the media, and threatening the entire population with serious calamities, if not to win 90+% of the elections? It is absurd for the European Union to send observers to monitor the elections – what elections?
My reason for writing today is neither to address the issues of Meles’s election, nor to dwell on failures of the opposition parties to mount, hitherto, any credible political force against Meles, because I have written so much on these and also given very many ideas about how, I felt, one should go about tackling Meles. It is more about pondering about what the aftermath of the so called election will be!
Most of us, who have ventured into analyzing Meles’ strategies with regards to the Nation of Ethiopia, Ethiopian peoples and the entire region of the Horn of Africa, have long arrived at the conclusion that he really does not give a hoot about any of these entities! When I engage in self criticism, which is not infrequent, I often feel that there is more than a tinge of emotional overtone in the conclusions I arrive at, vis-à-vis Ethiopian politics. So, I have decided to try and be a bit more objective than usual: I have decided to start with the assumption that Meles, like most of us, loves Ethiopia, and like most of us, he wants good things to happen to Ethiopia! But, if that is true, how come that his every move seems designed to destroy the country and its peoples?
Whatever many of us believe, Meles considers himself (at least from outward appearance) an Ethiopian; he is a father of children who consider themselves good Ethiopians; and at least half of him (as of now) belongs to an Ethiopian ethnic entity! All these attributes, plus the fact that he has been at the helm of Ethiopian administration for almost two decades must, surely, give him the incentive to leave behind a proud and indelible mark – a legacy he and those who care about him can be proud of! Think about his off-spring(s) who is(are) studying at Stanford – whatever their upbringing, however proud they might have been of their father growing up in the Meles house-hold, today they are part of Stanford culture of civilization, humility, humanity, sense of justice, clarity of conscience, etc! They now have the true taste of what democratic governance looks and feels like, and what free people look like and act like! Having assimilated all these, how comfortable might they be that the posh life they live, and the world-class education they are getting are financed by moneys stolen from the millions of Ethiopian children who are perishing because lack of food to eat or lack of medicines to treat simple ailments? What kind of a world does Meles think he will leave for his children? Surely, as any father would, he must be sensitive about how his own children will view him! What kind of pain will the grown-up Zenawi off-springs have to endure, knowing who their father really is/was? One would assume the cruelty that he has meted out to countless innocent lives will not leave his own children unscathed! My heart goes out to them! So, how can one explain this relentless scheme to destroy Ethiopia and everything in it? Is it just a case of narrow-minded, myopic, self-interest?
He entered Addis Ababa with blazing guns and took power, and immediately set in motion the process that led to decapitation of Ethiopia when he let Eritrea go; he divided Ethiopians against each other along tribal, regional and religious lines; he created “institutions of higher learning” which he turned into crucibles for concocting tribal hatred of the worst order – poisoning the young minds of the future generation; he invaded Somalia and stirred up hostility against Ethiopia by radicalizing the youth of that country – who are now hell bent on destroying what is left of Ethiopia; he has been parceling out Ethiopian real estate to all and sundry, with Ethiopians now providing slave labor to foreigners pouring in from all corners of the globe – even Egypt (Ethiopia’s nemesis) has gotten its share of the loot! He is now sitting on a thorny fence between throwing his lot with the Upper Nile Basin countries and his new-found brethrens (of Northern Sudan and Egypt) – He can’t wait for his election to be over so that he may declare solidarity with his “golden” brethren! He has massacred the Ogadenis, the Anuaks and aided and abated the massacre of others! The Oromo people consider themselves second class citizens in the country where they are the majority ethnic entity! How could the author of all these atrocities possibly have the good of Ethiopia and Ethiopian people at heart?
How can one rationally explain this man’s behavior?
At the core of Meles’ intriguing behavior are:
1. The shrewd mind of a man who has less knowledge about most things than he actually thinks he has;
2. His belief that the wider world is not smarter than the suckers with whom he has surrounded himself;
3. Like all dictators, he thinks locking up vulnerable subjects, or killing them will solve his problems for good, totally oblivious of the fact that such an act multiplies rather than diminishes problems;
4. His firm belief in the divide-and-rule colonial strategy, which has kept him in power for nearly two decades, and totally ignoring the historical fact that most dictators who came before him perished by the methods of their rules;
5. His using of followers to terrorize and subjugate the entire population of Ethiopia, ignoring the fact that these loyal servants may themselves be victims of whoever comes after him;
6. In his desire to impress the world and Ethiopia with his genius in bringing economic revival in Ethiopia, he has gone to great lengths to hand the natural resources of the country to the Chinese, the Indians, Arabs, among many others. Ethiopian people are supposed to provide slave labor for these international moneyed giants, in their own country!
Opposition leadership:
After undermining and discrediting each other across the political spectrum since the 2005 electoral debacle, the opposition parties have once again coalesced into large impressive groups, if rather belatedly, to mount opposition to Meles in the run-up to the 2010 elections! They now see strength in numbers, as Meles puts his repressive machine into high gear to frustrate them in the electoral process! The question is: do they really expect the result of this election to be any different from the last one? At the core of the opposition troubles are:
1. Many are more concerned about their own power/wealth than Ethiopia’s future;
2. Failure to understand their nemesis – Meles;
3. Their alliances tend to be based on narrow objective of winning one election rather than long-term strategy for Ethiopia’s revival – the alliance will, most likely, pitter away as soon as Meles wins – amid the clamor of accusations and counter-accusations (I beg you, please prove me wrong!);
4. They seem not to understand what the international community is looking for in an Ethiopian political movement, before throwing in their support;
5. They seem not to appreciate that Ethiopia stands perilously between anarchy and peaceful development in the Horn of Africa, and that the international community is more concerned about this than who rules Ethiopia par se!
6. Whatever the outward appearance, there is nearly as much mutual suspicions among the opposition comrades-in-arms, as there is for Meles and his henchmen!
Why it may be dark after the 2010 Deception! After 19 years of misrule in Ethiopia, Meles has effectively turned the peoples of Ethiopia against each other. In his current campaign for the license to rule for another 5 years, he has set in motion his divisive machine like never before! The strategy seems to be working – Ethiopians are turning on each other everywhere! Even UDJ factions have declared they won’t forego their share of the mayhem! Who would have thought Professor Mesfin would do anything harmful to the unity of any opposition against Meles’s despicable misrule! In the anarchic situation that prevails today, many hitherto innocent and harmless individuals who find themselves in the act of hurting others, in the spur of emotional moment, also realize that it is easy to get away with murder. That, in fact, they have just as much power as the regime’s foot-soldiers to kill! Once that fear to commit a criminal act has been overcome, a new frightening day will have dawned in Ethiopia! If Meles, as expected, wins this so called election, the frightening consequence is that of people turning against each other and the slaughter of the innocent may escalate. I know some will this is alarmist, but if one is not already alarmed by what is going on in Ethiopia, we may not belong to the same species!
You can rest assured; Meles has his villa(s) somewhere far away from Ethiopia, his bags packed, and his wealth neatly stashed in a foreign bank. As soon as he senses trouble he will leave Ethiopia. The question is: Who will be there to clean up the mess. For sure, I don’t expect the Ethiopian opposition to be in a position to handle that kind of scenario! If the past is anything to go by, they’ll go aground, until another dictator steps forward!
My Advice to the Ethiopian Opposition parties:
1. Accept Meles will win this election (Deception);
2. Plan peacefully long-term, for another day;
3. Counsel your supporters to avoid confrontations or criminal acts;
4. Look at each other as brothers and sisters across the boundaries erected by Meles – smash the boundaries good-humoredly and peacefully – simply be Ethiopians;
5. Avoid mutual suspicions because of old political differences; instead, forge strong partnership for future survival of Ethiopia and our peoples;
6. Believe in the survival of Ethiopia, and HELP IT HAPPEN;
7. Be ready (as I advised many times before) to reconcile with the regime of today and be prepared even to share power (when the right moment comes) with the regime as a means of reassurance and confidence building, for the sake of Ethiopia.
