ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – Following are analyst comments on the implications of
a landslide win for the Horn of Africa nation:
RENE LEFORT, AUTHOR OF SEVERAL BOOKS ABOUT ETHIOPIA:
“It means that the EPRDF had decided — and successfully
taken the appropriate authoritarian measures — not only to be
the unquestionable winner of the 2010 elections, but also to get
its revenge on the opposition by humiliating it in 2010 as much
as it felt humiliated by the opposition’s push in 2005.
This landslide victory blackens the future of Ethiopia. It
first proves once again that the EPRDF went as far as to obtain
that the opposition could not even get a decent representation,
and to reduce it to a purely formal role, without any real
leverage. Second, by weakening the legal opposition, this
landslide victory will prove once more to the opponents that all
legal ways of contesting the ruling power are in fact closed and
that thus the only way for an alternate government is to wage an
armed struggle.
“This centuries old dichotomy: submit or rebel, which has
been disastrous for Ethiopia will only lead to an other
disaster, except if the new generation of leaders who could take
the commands in the coming years would decide they must lastly
escape from it.”
(Reporting by Barry Malone: Editing by David Clarke)
DAVID SHINN, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO ETHIOPIA, 1996-99:
“Assuming a large EPRDF victory I would say the central
issue for the future of Ethiopia is how the government over the
next five years will allow for more political competition.
“Prime Minister Meles (has) stated without qualification
that he will retire at the end of this term. He added that the
old generation of the EPRDF will also retire. This will open the
doors for competition both within the EPRDF and among its
political opponents.
“It is essential that both supporters and opponents of the
EPRDF take advantage of this situation in a constructive way to
ensure that democracy makes serious progress in Ethiopia. If
that happens, it could be the EPRDF’s most important legacy. If
it fails, it may relegate the EPRDF to the dust bin of history.”
MARK SCHROEDER, DIRECTOR OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANALYSIS,
STRATFOR:
“Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has a fresh mandate, and he’ll
take full advantage of the expected landslide victory to
domestic and international advantage. In terms of domestic
politics this will further consolidate the grip on power held by
the EPRDF and permit them to carry out their policies to little
interference from internal opponents.
“The results dramatically reduces Meles’ vulnerabilities on
the home front. Domestic rivals had it tough to begin with, and
the results of these elections will make their voice even less
regarded in Addis Ababa.
“As for international politics, Meles can use the results to
extract concessions in two particular areas. The elections
victory will mean that Ethiopian counter-insurgency support in
Somalia will not be disrupted. The Meles government is carrying
out counter-insurgency support in Somalia primarily for its own
national security concerns and only secondarily for the national
security concerns of Western countries, notably the U.S. But
Meles will use his fresh electoral mandate, which reduces his
domestic vulnerabilities, to try to raise the price that is paid
to Addis Ababa for its continued military support in Somalia.
“Meles will also use the elections victory for leverage in
the negotiations regarding water rights in the Nile river basin.
Ethiopia and Egypt are locked in difficult negotiations over
access to waters contributing to the Nile.
“Though Ethiopia and other upstream riparian countries
recently agreed to re-draw an agreement that determines
international access to the Nile waters, Egypt and to a lesser
extent Sudan, are demanding more negotiations. Addis Ababa knows
they cannot significantly disrupt the flow of waters downstream
without triggering a national security crisis in Egypt, but
re-purposing some of the waters for domestic electricity and
irrigation purposes has long been an effort Ethiopia now appears
to be on the cusp of achieving.
“Whatever threats and criticisms Addis Ababa receives from
Cairo will be countered by Meles with reminders to the U.S. of
its counterinsurgency gains in Somalia, and Meles will then
expect the US to use its diplomatic leverage with Cairo to
negotiate a settlement of Nile waters usage.”
KJETIL TRONVILL, UNIVERSITY OF OSLO PROFESSOR AND SENIOR
PARTNER AT THE INTERNATIONAL LAW AND POLICY INSTITUTE:
“In the near future, I do not see any changes of policy
either from the EPRDF’s side, or from the international side
versus Ethiopia: it will be business as usual.
“The donor group will embrace the result and the process, as
it gives continued legitimacy for their cooperation with EPRDF,
and the many difficult questions regarding democratic substance
and respect for human rights can be brushed aside, as long as
they can use the superficial technicalities of the process as
window-dressing for ‘continued democratisation of Ethiopia’ –
and thus justifying the billions of dollars spent on the regime.
“For the Ethiopian public, the result will not signal any
immediate changes either. The EPRDF will probably continue
developing its totalitarian structure, with compulsory party
membership for anybody who will be interested to pursue public
employment and advancement within the country.
“The result will probably have most effect on opposition
politics. Some of the old-timers in opposition have earlier
expressed that this time will be their last shot in elections.
If EPRDF do not accept a level playing field, they will give in.
This attitude might have changed, but I still think a cut-back
to 10 percent of seats or so to the opposition will be a hard
blow to carry for many of them. This will surely shake the
foundations of Medrek, which might split up into two or more
opposition platforms; as part of a blame-game of the election
failure.
“The result might also be used as a argument for the
opposition groups which argue for a tougher more confrontational
— or even military — opposition tactics towards the regime; as
they can claim that the democratic space is too restricted for
them to come to power via the ballot box.”
J. PETER PHAM, SENIOR FELLOW AND AFRICA PROJECT DIRECTOR AT
THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY:
“While there are a number of things that one might have
wished had been done differently with respect to the
organisation and conduct of the election, the vote — by an
extraordinary high turnout of citizens who, it must be
remembered, cast their ballots in a peaceful and orderly manner
and did not spoil the papers or engage in any other action that
would justify an alternative explanation of their conduct
— must be viewed in its context.
“Both with respect to Ethiopia’s millennial history and what
happens in the country’s neighbours — including the fact that
Eritrea has never held elections, Somalia is in chaos, and the
last Kenyan elections degenerated into an orgy of violence — it
is another indicator of noteworthy progress, along with the
steady economic growth, friendly business environment, and
stability.”
