The unwritten law is that no words are to be exchanged in support or
disapproval of his speech. This is strictly a duel by body language
and facial expressions. If something particularly meaningful to either
side is uttered, an intermittent grunt is tolerated. In the end, both
sides settle their bills, get up and walk out manifestly pretending
that nothing had happened.
Welcome to freedom of expression in the land of the oppressed:
stressed Ethiopia, where this article could not be read.
The setting: Ethiopia’s rubber-stamp parliament, where the opposition
has only one seat in a 547-seat chamber.
The chief actor: besieged Meles Zenawi, who has been in power for
twenty years, and still has four more official years to go. (Beware: “I
love this job!” he has told the nation at his last press conference.)
He was universally ignored when he read his prepared speech. At least
in this regard his supporters and detractors blended in perfect
harmony. The hush came with the start of the question and answer
session.
Would the PM kindly comment on the imprisonment of opposition members
and the Grand Millennium Dam? Has the government altered its policy on
Eritrea? And more questions on the economy.
Mumbled conversations drown the responses on the economy. No
excitement to be expected there. When he spoke of the recent arrest
of opposition members, however, an uneasy tension hangs in the air.
There was none of the usual glee of his supporters.
Sixty-eight members of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) and 40
members of the Oromo People’s Congress (OPC), both members of the
largest legal opposition coalition, Medrek, have been arrested since
the beginning of March 2011. Amongst the detained, according to HRW,
“are former members of Parliament and former candidates for election.”
The opposition claims 200 arrests but the government admits to only
121, which it insists are all being held under court orders. The
detention of the remaining 79 under the notorious Anti-Terrorism Law
may explain the government’s disquieting silence, which allows custody
for up to four months without charge.
“They are members of the OLF,” said Meles. “They were using the legal
opposition as a cover, perhaps with the complicity of the parties,”
charged Meles ominously. “We will prove this in a court of law, which
ought to provide the public with proof of how (the legal opposition)is
at least being used as a cover,” he winded down somewhat
pathetically.(Practically no one believes in the independence of the
courts, including most government supporters.)
He also had harsh words for UDJ, another member of Medrek, whose two
most visible leaders, Seye Abraha and Negasso Gidada, were once senior
government officials who were purged (the former illegally) from the
ruling party.
Meles, who savors nothing more than occasionally propping up his
security services in public, had made it part of a calculated, primed
statement this time. “I would like to warn members of Mederk,” he said
with an intentional pause for effect here, “particularly
Andinet (UDJ),” another pause, “to be very careful about inciting a
hybrid of violence and terror. This is a government with many eyes and
ears,” the words are now being delivered with marked pride, “it is
able to see and hear thoroughly. Be very careful, you will pay the
price,” a forceful finish.
There is creepy silence in the café now. There is no movement from
either side. The tension is too much for the silent contest today. All
eyes are rather transfixed on the TV.
His responses on Eritrea and the Grand Millennium Dam, two issues he
is frantically promoting to deflect attention from sporadic but
persistent calls for democracy, were followed with no less rapt
attention.
On Eritrea there was an embarrassing retreat from the emotional bluff
of a full fledged war. The new policy is “proportional response,”
delivered with far less gusto than the “regime change with military
action” he had vowed only three weeks ago. Common sense prevails,
after all, perhaps with a little bit of propping from the international
community.
(I will address his response on the Grand Millennium Dam in a separate
article.)
There is considerable credence to UDJ’s claim that it is the most
plausible successor to the CUD, the star performer of the 2005
elections. The core of its influential leadership were at one point
leading members of the CUD. Most of them were imprisoned in 2005,
subsequently convicted of attempts to overthrow the government,
sentenced to life imprisonment, and then released under a conditional
Presidential pardon in late 2007. The qualification stipulates that the
pardon will be revoked if they are “ever to act in contravention to
the Constitutional order.”
In a premeditated move to discourage dissent, the government revoked
the pardon of Birtukan Mideksa in 2009 under the flimsiest of pretexts.
The repercussion of Birtukan’s imprisonment on UDJ was simply
devastating. The inability of the party to respond to EPRDF’s blatant
provocation with mass protests, as many had predicated, went on to
symbolize the weakness of the opposition. The beleaguered leaders of
UDJ were soon disoriented. Moral plummeted amidst the grassroots. And
thus the EPRDF eloquently underscored its intended message: its
dominant position is unassailable!
But with the protests in the Middle East serving as a backdrop,
EPRDF’s aura of invincibility is now unavoidably being questioned
seriously. And Meles seems to be flirting with the possibility of
refurbishing that image with more provocations against UDJ, perhaps
calculating that the party is still not strong enough to trigger
immediate protests.
I seriously doubt whether Meles’ Machiavellian design would have the
same effect it once had. Ethiopians have changed forever since the
North African uprisings, not only in how they perceive the EPRDF but
also in how they will relate with their future governments. They have
discovered new prospects to a peaceful transition to democracy. The
thinking of the international community has also changed radically.
The support of EPRDF’s international partners could not be taken for
granted anymore. What has not changed is Meles’ thinking. He still
romanticizes a world which broadly tolerates repression, a world in
which he is always the winner. He is destined to fail.
The future lies with the blackmailed opposition, however vulnerable to
bullying they may seem now. And in the grand perspective of things,
that is what really matters most.
