Ethiopia is heading toward its Fourth “National Election”. Many of us are trying to answer the following big question: what do we expect from the forthcoming Ethiopian “National Election”? For many political pundits it is forgone conclusion; TPLF/EPRDF will win easily. Few opposition leaders are hoping for some miracle to win the election. TPLF/EPRDF has done everything possible to guarantee its victory in order to stay in power for a quarter of century.
The donor countries are hoping that Meles to win, but with no violence like the election of 2005. I am also of the opinion that the ruling party will declare victory after the orchestra of the election is over, because the forthcoming election will not and cannot be competitive.
Elections are the defining institution of modern democracy (Katz, 1997). The main function of elections in liberal democracy is to provide competition. Competitive elections also endow the new office-holders with authority, contributing thereby to the effectiveness with which leaders can perform their duties (Ginsberg, 1982). In short, competitive elections facilitate choice, accountability, dialogue and legitimacy. On the other hand, elections in Authoritarian regimes are not competitive; instead competition is constrained and the election process tightly controlled. Some opposition victories may be permitted but too few to affect the overall result. Most non-democratic rulers recognize that elections can be useful fiction (Liddle, 1996). They need it, because elections satisfy international donors who are often happy enough if just the façade is democratic. The main purpose of elections in Ethiopia is to persuade donors, and thus, it is simply a useful fiction. TPLF/EPRDF will never allow the opposition to win. Election 2005 has taught us unforgettable lesson.
TPLF/EPRDF has also learnt its lesson from the 2005 election; no more relaxing to let the opposition penetrate freely into the society. This time the candidates find themselves operating in threatening environment. Already few candidates have been killed, many harassed, or accused of invented crimes and put in jail. Opposition leaders already have been threatened to be tried after the election for the inciting the public during the campaign. The control over media is a 100%. Under such circumstance how could the opposition reach their supporters? Besides, the control over government is exploited to the highest extent by the ruling party, that is, it can draw on the state’s coffers, for their campaign. In the country where the major employer is the government, and where the TPLF and its affiliates control more than 90% of the economy, the competitive election is unthinkable. Everything at this time favors TPLF/EPRDF victory save a miracle, and I don’t believe in one.
Moreover, the government controls the electoral system, and the system itself favors TPLF/EPRDF victory. Electoral systems are the rules for translating votes into the seats in parliamentary elections. Electoral system can either be proportional or non-proportional. Ethiopian electoral system is non-proportional and it takes plurality system. In single-member plurality (also called ‘first past the post’) format, the winning candidate is simply the one receiving the most votes in a particular electoral district. This system works best when two dominant parties compete throughout the country. The British contest between labor and the conservative parties can be a good example. But in recent British election the third minority party, the liberal democrats, emerged as a power contestant and demanding for an overhaul of the electoral system toward proportional representation, which would greatly increase the party’s future seat tallies.
In Ethiopia TPLF/EPRDF currently is the only dominant party. There are about seventy minority parties, which are contesting for seats in parliament. But with the existing electoral system, ‘first past the post’, the ruling party will win most seats and only few candidates from opposition parties will make to the parliament. Many minority parties representing minority ethnic groups might not even get any representation in the parliament. In this case the election is far from being democratic. For Ethiopian situation the Proportional Representation electoral system would fit perfectly, but as the current system favors the ruling party, the TPLF/EPRDF government will never consider of reforming it.
The opposition parties participating in this sham election know that their chance of winning is at a minimum, and yet they decided to participate. Some of the opposition leaders are participating for the fourth time. They have been in the parliament for more than fifteen years having no impact at all. Why do they still insist that they will make difference in the parliament? Some of the opposition leaders genuinely believe in incremental change. They think that Ethiopia will gradually reach at the point where free and fair elections will be possible. We may differ on this but we have to respect their ideas, and decisions. However, their belief does not change the fact; TPLF/EPRDF is an authoritarian regime and it is doing what is expected from authoritarian regimes in regards to elections. It will never yield power through elections, and it will win sham elections again and again.
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