CAIRO – Ultimately, only the military can tell President Hosni Mubarak — one of its own — that it’s time to step down.
Egypt’s most powerful and most secretive institution has so far given no hint of whether it will abandon the 82-year-old former air force commander and accede to protesters’ demand for his ouster after nearly three decades of autocratic rule.
But it will likely do whatever it takes to preserve its status as the final source of power in the country and the economic perks it gets from the regime and from the considerable sector of civilian business ventures it has carved out for itself.
The army is clearly torn.
If it asks Mubarak to spare the country more violence and step down, it would throw the door wide open to the possibility of the first civilian president, ending the hold it has had on power since a 1952 coup overthrew Egypt’s monarchy. Every president since has come from the military.
But dislodging protesters by force from Cairo’s central Tahrir Square, epicenter of the demonstrations, would portray the military in the same light as the widely hated police, risking a popular backlash that could taint its carefully guarded reputation as protector of the people.
“The challenge is to convince the generals in and out of uniform that their interests are best served by a more inclusive and transparent political system once Mubarak leaves the stage,” Haim Malka of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a commentary Friday.
“Regardless of how events unfold, the military will aim to preserve its unique position. … The question then is not so much when Mubarak steps down, but what kind of post-Mubarak political system the military brass seeks to shape.”
If Mubarak does go, the military will surely have a strong role in running the country during a potentially stormy democratic transition. It will be in a position to weigh in heavily as Egypt’s factions negotiate over reforming the constitution to bring greater democracy.
In American recognition of the army’s importance, U.S. officials say talks are under way between the Obama administration and senior Egyptian officials on the possible immediate resignation of Mubarak and the formation of a military-backed caretaker government to prepare the country for elections this year.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing sensitive diplomatic talks, said the creation of an interim government is just one of several possibilities under discussion.
The protesters too recognize the military must have a seat in the post-Mubarak leadership. Their concern is more on breaking the ruling party’s monopoly on political power than on ending military influence.
Mohamed ElBaradei, one of the leaders of the protesters’ negotiating team, said Friday that Mubarak should step down and let a presidential council made up of several figures — including the military — rule for a year to rewrite the constitution ahead of elections.
Mubarak, too, is looking to the military to secure his position.
He appointed Omar Suleiman, a former army general and intelligence chief, as his vice president and picked another military man, former air force officer Ahmed Shafiq as his new prime minister, in a Cabinet shake-up.
Notably, the shake-up purged the government of the wealthy businessmen politicians who came to dominate the administration the past decade — led, in fact, by Mubarak’s son Gamal — and who were long viewed with deep suspicion by the military. Since their ouster, several of those businessmen ex-ministers are now under criminal investigation, hit with travel bans and asset freezes.
The protesters massed in Tahrir Square are clearly trying to draw the military into their camp.
“The people and the army are one hand!” they chanted as Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi paid a brief visit Friday to the square and chatted with some protesters.
But the military’s attitude toward the protests has been difficult to pin down.
For example, the military spokesman, Gen. Ismail Etman, called their demands “legitimate” but later appealed to them to go home so that normal life can be restored.
The army has vowed not to use force against the demonstrations, and for days Tahrir has been ringed by tanks and soldiers in an attempt to maintain some order. The military has made no attempt to stop the public from joining the movement and has even helped it to keep out police in civilian clothes or ruling party backers who could stir up trouble.
But when regime supporters attacked the square on Wednesday and battled with the protesters for two days in scenes of mayhem, the troops guarding the square stood by and watched largely without intervening.
That may have been because of a desire not to be seen as taking sides or breaking its vow not to use force against Egyptians. But it may have also represented the military’s discomfort with its role: Suleiman on Thursday said the deployment to keep order has placed a “large burden” on the army, carrying out police duties it had never shouldered in the past.
The army was called out after the police clashed with protesters in heavy fighting soon after the demonstrations began on Jan. 25. Then a week ago, the security forces vanished, allowing a wave of looting and arson around Cairo. That disappearance has still not been explained, and police forces have only partially returned to the streets since.
The deployment of tanks and thousands of troops in Cairo and other flashpoint cities has brought the military into large-scale contact with civilians for the first time in more than two decades.
It’s not a position the army is comfortable with. The military reduced its political visibility over the years but kept its position as the real source of power in the country.
Over the years, it has built up its business activities, including building roads and airports, food processing and manufacturing. That caused frictions with the businessmen whose political power grew in the ruling party, since the military cut them off from some lucrative contracts.
It also holds wide esteem among Egyptians. Many credit it with what they view as their victory over Israel in the 1973 Middle East war. Its adherence to a military strategy that places Israel as Egypt’s most likely enemy in any future war resonates with the population.
That has made many look with comfort on its major role in dealing with the crisis.
“The critical stage that the country finds itself in now requires military people with a high level of discipline and loyalty,” said Hossam Sweileim, a retired army general who runs a research center.
CAIRO – A new rally Friday by nearly 100,000 protesters in Cairo and behind-the-scenes diplomacy from the Obama administration piled more pressure on President Hosni Mubarak to make a swift exit and allow a temporary government to embark on an immediate path toward democracy.
Two days of wild clashes between protesters and regime supporters that killed 11 people this week seemed to have pushed the United States to the conclusion that an Egypt with Mubarak at the helm is potentially more unstable than one without him.
For the first time in the 11-day wave of protests, varying scenarios were being put forward by two opposing camps in Egypt and by the United States on how to usher the country into a post-Mubarak era after nearly 30 years of his authoritarian rule.
In Washington, President Barack Obama said Friday that discussions have begun in Egypt on a turnover of the government and he pushed for “a transition period that begins now.” He did not explicitly call for Mubarak to step down immediately, saying details “will be worked by Egyptians.”
But U.S. officials said the administration has made a judgment that Mubarak has to go soon if the crisis is to end peacefully.
Under one U.S. proposal under discussion with the Egyptians, the 82-year-old Mubarak would step down and hand power to a military-backed temporary government headed by his newly appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. The government would prepare for free and fair elections later this year.
That would mesh in some ways with the demands of the protesters. But one significant difference was the timetable.
Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, one of the leaders of the protesters, criticized the government’s plan to reform the constitution within five months so presidential elections can be held in September. He said that was too rushed and indicated the regime was not serious about real change.
It would take a full year under a transitional government, he said, to sufficiently loosen the ruling party’s entrenched monopoly on politics before a truly democratic election can be held. The ruling party has squeezed out almost all rivals with a grip solidified in vote fraud, election rules tilted in its favor, widespread patronage, emergency laws and domination of the media.
“People are not stupid … This is not really a genuine desire to go for reform,” ElBaradei said of the government’s timeframe. He said Mubarak must “hear the clear voice coming from the people and leave in dignity.”
Mubarak has staunchly refused to step down, and his prime minister said Friday that stance is “unlikely” to change.
Mubarak insists he must serve out the rest of his term until September to ensure stability. He warned in an interview with ABC News that chaos would ensue if he leaves.
“You don’t understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now,” Mubarak said he told Obama.
The protesters have vowed to continue their rallies until he goes. They seemed flush with a sense of victory and recharged determination after repelling pro-regime rioters who attacked Tahrir Square on Wednesday, sparking 48 hours of mayhem and pitched battles.
Nearly 100,000 people packed the downtown plaza, whose name means “Liberation,” in a protest dubbed the “Friday of departure” in hopes it would be the day Mubarak goes — the biggest showing since Tuesday, when a quarter-million people rallied.
Crowds that included families with children flowed over bridges across the Nile into Tahrir, a sign the movement was not intimidated by the violence of the previous two days. In that fighting, pro-Mubarak combatants hurled concrete, rebar and firebombs, unleashed barrages of automatic gunfire and even galloped through the square on camels and horses, swinging whips, but were eventually driven away.
The ruling National Democratic Party, accused by protesters of organizing the attack, called on its supporters Friday to “adhere to a truce and not enter confrontations with others,” but denied any role in the assault. Protesters says the regime organized the assault by police in civilian clothes and paid thugs.
Suleiman and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq promised no action would be taken against the protest camp. A curfew in place for a week was eased Friday, to run from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m. The Tahrir clashes brought the death toll since protests began Jan. 25 to 109 people. Among them was a reporter from a state-run newspaper who was shot by a sniper last week while photographing clashes from his home’s balcony and died Friday — the first journalist death in the crisis.
Protesters in the square Friday held up signs reading “Now!” At one point, the crowd seemed to be a field of waving Egyptian red-black-and-white flags. Thousands prostrated themselves in the noon Muslim prayers then — immediately after uttering the prayer’s concluding “God’s peace and blessings be upon you” — they launched into chants of “Leave! Leave! Leave!” A man was lifted in his wheelchair over the heads of the crowd and he pumped his arms in the air.
Soldiers at entrances checked IDs to keep out police in civilian clothes and ruling party members, a sign that Egypt’s most powerful institution was sanctioning the demonstration. The protesters themselves set up another ring of checks inside the army cordon.
In the morning, Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi visited the square, the highest government figure to do so. He reviewed the troops stationed there and mingled with protesters, trying to convince them that most of their demands have been met and they should go home.
Arab League chief Amr Moussa also appeared in the square Friday to visit the protesters in what appeared to be a trial balloon for running for Egypt’s presidency.
His convoy was greeted by supporters with chants of “We want you as president, we want you as president!” Moussa, previously a foreign minister under Mubarak, has an elder statesman appeal for some Egyptians, boosted by his tough rhetoric against Israel.
Asked earlier by France’s Europe 1 radio if he would consider a role in the transitional government or an eventual presidential run, Moussa replied, “Why say no?”
In a sign of cracks in some key regime pillars, Mohammed Rafat al-Tahtawi, the spokesman of Al-Azhar Mosque, the country’s pre-eminent Islamic institution, announced on Al-Jazeera that he had resigned from his position to join the protesters. The state-run Al-Azhar is a major source of support for Mubarak, giving his rule religious backing, and its top sheik has been calling for protesters to go home.
The pro-government rioters of the past two days largely disappeared. In the afternoon, small groups of Mubarak supporters tried to move on the square from two directions, banging with sticks on metal fences to raise an intimidating clamor. But protesters throwing rocks pushed them back. More than two dozen people were injured, most of them lightly.
Still, on the other side of Cairo, dozens of regime supporters carrying machetes and sticks set up an impromptu checkpoint on the ring-road highway encircling the city of 18 million. They stopped cars, asking for IDs, apparently trying to root out people heading to Tahrir to join the protest. One of the armed men wore a sign reading, “We are sorry, Mr. President.”
The atmosphere in the square was relaxed. Many brought fresh bread, water, fruit and other supplies. Long lines formed at tables of people handing out tea and bread. Several celebrities of Egyptian cinema and TV joined the march, including Sherihan, a beloved screen beauty from the 1980s and early 1990s who largely disappeared from the public eye because of health issues.
Many of the protesters involved in the fighting still wore tattered bandages. Around the square were makeshift clinics, set up in the entrances of stores, including a KFC restaurant. Above one was the sign of an interlocking crescent and cross, the signs of Islam and Christianity.
Despite the call for Mubarak’s immediate departure, Prime Minister Shafiq told Al-Arabiya that was “unlikely.”
“Mubarak’s remaining as president is a source of security for the nation,” he said.
Trying to launch the transition with Mubarak in place, Vice President Suleiman has offered talks with all political forces over constitutional changes to ensure a free vote. Mubarak has said he will not run for re-election.
Suleiman said the invitation goes out to protest leaders and the regime’s top foe, the Muslim Brotherhood. That was significant, suggesting the banned fundamentalist group could be allowed an open political role in the post-Mubarak era.
But so far the protest factions have stuck to their condition that Mubarak step down before any negotiations on the constitution.
ElBaradei’s comments reflected a widely held view among protesters that unless Mubarak goes and a broader transitional government is put in place, the regime will try to limit reforms to preserve its hold on power. They dismiss as illegitimate Shafiq’s government, appointed by Mubarak soon after the protests erupted on Jan. 25.
Suleiman has talked of changing the constitution to ensure fair supervision of elections, loosen restrictions on who can run for president and impose a term limit for the presidency.
ElBaradei and other protest leaders demand more. They want an end to an emergency law that gives security forces near unlimited powers and demand greater freedom to form political parties. Currently, any new party effectively needs approval by Mubarak’s ruling party. As a result, the existing opposition parties are largely shells with little popular support or organization.
Suleiman has not mentioned either issue. Suleiman, who was intelligence chief and Mubarak’s top aide until being elevated to vice president, is mistrusted by some of the protesters as a regime figure, but others have spoken him as an acceptable interim president.
ElBaradei said he respects Suleiman as someone to negotiate with over the transition.
ElBaradei said he was consulting with lawyers and experts to draw up a temporary constitution. He called for a transitional government headed by a presidential council of two or three figures, including a military representative. It would hold power for a year while a permanent constitution is drawn up, then elections could take place.
Still, he underlined that the protest movement is not seeking “retribution” or a purge of the ruling party, only a more level playing field. “Not everyone who worked with the regime should be eliminated,” he said.
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AP correspondents Hamza Hendawi, Sarah El Deeb and Maggie Michael contributed to this report.
