Moammar Gadhafi indeed shares some of these traits, but also markedly
stands out as part of a glitzy species much disdained by the cool
mainstream: the buffoon dictators.
Hitler and Mussolini popularized the buffoon species. They also
represent its two sub-specious: the harmful and harmless genres.
History will remember Mussolini more for his absurd theatrics and
blunders than the harm he caused. Hitler’s outlandish public tantrums
and speeches, on the other hand, are a footnote to the epic tale of
moral and physical damage he wrought on humanity.
Until Tuesday, Gadhafi belonged more with Mussolini than Hitler. Aside
from the Berlin and Lockerbie bombings in a 40 years reign, the world
tolerated Gadhafi with bemused indifference. The international media,
for their part, seemed permanently enthralled by his blonde Ukrainian
female nurse and gun-totting female bodyguards.
Come February 22, 2011, a day after Libya was overwhelmed by people
power, however, the world was suddenly confronted with a new,
murderous Gadhafi that was much more than a buffoon. Speaking from the
doorsteps of his Tripoli residence once bombed by US air-strikes in
the 1980s, he was at times shouting, pounding his fists on a podium,
and intermittently losing his stream of thought as he scolded his
nation’s democratic aspiration.
But his instruction to supporters, militiamen and thousands of
mercenaries in his pay came out clearly. There was no haziness here.
“You men and women who love Gadhafi….get out of your homes and fill
the streets. Leave your homes and attack them (the protesters) in
their lairs,” he thundered.
In a nation where tribal loyalties figure prominently in politics, it
was also a subtle call to his kins to defend him. But those who
responded, according to eyewitnesses on Al-Jezzera, were
disproportionately his mercenaries.(Sorry EPRDF!)
Divide and rule has lost its magic. A new era has dawned in Libya
The Libyan protests began on the evening of February 15 by about 2000
people. The number of protesters roughly doubled as passersby and
activists joined them. The regime reacted with a firm determination to
discourage further defiance of its demonstration ban. Up to ten
percent of the demonstrators were seriously brutalized. Many more
suffered lesser injuries.
As has recently happened elsewhere in the Middle East, state violence
unexpectedly and unusually bred fierce public defiance. There were
more outraged protesters in Benghazi, Libya’s second city, the next
day. And the protests spread to other cities.
As is the case in all authoritarian countries, including Ethiopia,
Gadhafi’s security networks, though one of the most far-reaching in
Africa, were simply not large enough—nor could they ever be—to
contain simultaneous uprisings in dozens of cities across the country.
They lost half the country in 48 hours.
Poor Gadhafi was stunned beyond belief
This is the scenario that will most probably confront the EPRDF if
protests are to break out in Ethiopia. A parallel event, albeit on a
smaller scale, had already happened in November 2005 when half a dozen
cities exploded at almost the same time. The EPRDF was almost, but not
quite, stretched to the limit.
Add a few more cities this time around, and crucially, unlike 2005,
with a public that will no doubt be adamantly determined to prevail,
EPRDF will be hard pressed to control Addis Ababa, Dire-Dawa and Baher
Dar, the nation’s three largest urban areas, at the same time.
With east Libya serving as the inspiring model, the specter of whole
regions liberating themselves within 48 to 72 hours of protests
breaking out is now entirely plausible. Ethiopians in Addis and across
the regions are mesmerized by events in the Arab world as never
before, and each dramatic twist of events seems to mischievously
broaden the possibilities at home. More trouble than it could possibly
handle is brewing for the EPRDF.
The reaction of Libya’s professional military to the rise of people
power has by now become conventional in North Africa. Faced with a
choice between mass murder and continued loyalty to the regime, it
opted, as had its Tunisian and Egyptian counterparts, to switch sides.
Unfortunately, the balance of power does not lie exclusively with the
professional military in Libya. Much to the delight of Gadhafi, his
disdain of a powerful professional military has finally been
vindicated. Wary of a potential coup, he had for long pampered and
better armed his paramilitaries and mercenaries. He will only be
convincingly beaten when they finally abandon him.( They most probably
will.)
The military is all the EPRDF has in Ethiopia. There are no powerful
paramilitaries or mercenaries to counterweigh the might of the army.
Only its forceful intervention on either side in the event of
protests, or its neutrality, as was the case in Egypt until the very
last moments, will sway the balance of power. In the unlikely event
that it will remain fiercely loyal to the EPRDF in the face of
nation-wide mass protests, civilian fatalities that run in the low
hundreds, as is offically the case for the 2005 post-election riots,
will be too much for the international community. This is not 2005.
But whatever the casualty figures, perhaps no country will suggest the
kind of military intervention which the British have proposed in Libya
in recent days. Nonetheless, a belligerent EPRDF is doomed to a
pyrrhic victory, if that is indeed the final outcome, which will
irremediably rupture its indispensable relationship with the West.
And this will inevitably mark the beginning of the end for the
historical enigma that is the EPRDF. There is no way for it to come
out the winner from a violent clampdown.
Gadhafi used every means at his disposal to suppress the protests.
Appallingly, artillery, helicopter gunship, and incredibly, even anti
aircraft missiles were fired directly at protesters. But to no avail.
In Bengahzi, hundreds of thousands of defiant protesters turned on the
regime. In smaller towns, the frenzy of the people was harsher.
As casualty figure reportedly climbed to around a thousand, the surge
of defections by once Gadhafi loyalists, which started in the
military, encroached with no less ferocity to the civilian sector.
Fuming Ministers, Ambassadors and religious leaders were soon urging
rebellion against the regime.
EPRDF could count on even less officials to stay faithful to it. This
will be particularly true of its diplomats. “Ethiopian embassies
representing the people” will most probably pop up around the globe.
Perhaps the only faithful embassy left will be the one in Beijing. But
nothing is certain even there. After all, it is Gadhafi’s most
dependable comrade-in-arms of four decades who defected first in
Benghazi.
All in all, the message to the EPRDF from Libya is crystal clear:
don’t fight change. You will not win.
The end.
WE NEED YOUR HELP!
God willing, come Tuesday, my first article in Amahric will appear on
this website. The Amharic articles are primarily intended for readers
in Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian public is more than ever desperate to hear from the
people it knows and trusts. I need your help to connect with thousands
who know and trust me.
Facebook is the ideal way to reach readers in Ethiopia at the moment.
All Ethiopian websites, including, of course, this one, are blocked in
Ethiopia.
I urge you to post my Amharic articles on your Facebook pages. Post it
on newsfeeds, send it by message to friends in Ethiopia, do everything
to get the message into Ethiopia. Do the same for other articles you
like.
