Ethiopia on the threshold of a new era of democracy

July 8, 2013

Ethiopia
is on the threshold of ushering in a new era of lasting democratic dispensation
and building a compassionate and tolerant multi-cultural society under the
supremacy of law. Political activists, civil society organizations and the
people yearning for real change are looking for the day of the demise of the
TPLF/EPRDF brutal regime and the establishment of a transitional arrangement leading
to a democratically elected government for the first time creating and enduring
culture of transferring power through the ballot box. Unless and until the
change of regime occurs it would be impossible to tackle divisive issues
related to violation of human rights, atrocious moral decay within the country,
and building of the GERD – which requires national consensus. 

The greatest demonstration in Egypt unprecedented in the
history of the world succeeded in deposing the ex-President Mr. Mohamed Morsi
thus dealing a heavy blow to his religious Moslem Brotherhood Party, which
connived with him to highjack the Egyptian revolution in their favor. Morsi was
therefore dethroned by unprecedented massive demand of the people – not by a
military coup. The Egyptian Army merely stood with and fulfilled the will of
the people thereby making history from which the Ethiopian defenses forces and
African tyrants should learn.  It is very
strange indeed that the African Union suspended membership of Egypt this time forgetting
it did not do so when Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in 2011.

The emerging democracy in Egypt coupled with the birth of
similar democracy in Ethiopia will culminate in a strong regional power
relationship conducive to peace, good governance, stability and prosperity.

The
exploitation of racial issues by opportunist Oromo elites is all but dead. The
overwhelming inter-married Ethiopians of today bound by blood as children of
ETHIOP will bury divisive ethnicity and forge ahead with the noble task of building
a democratic Ethiopia equal for all under the rule of law made and approved by
the people.

Lo and
behold! Democracy is knocking at the door steps of Ethiopians at home and in
the Diaspora waiting to enter. It is now time to usher it in with the
revolutionary songs: Abet, Taitu, Tenesa Teramed, Lanchi newe Ethiopia et al.

Transitional arrangement; Multilateral power politics

Are the opposition
entities, civic organizations, and the Ethiopian people ready for the
transitional arrangement leading to full-fledged democracy? How are they lined
up? What would be the likely outcome of the line up? To answer these questions
readers are invited to first of all examine the following array of entities braced
to intensify  action to oppose the
repressive ruling party bent on to stay in power at any cost:-

A.         UDJP, Blue Party, AEUP, all other
national political parties, MEDREK, SMNE, EPRP-D, Medhin, ENTC, SHENGO (The Ethiopian People’s Congress for United
Struggle), GASHA, ENYM (Ethiopian National Youth Movement)

B.         G7, G7 popular force; ALEJE (Alliance
for Liberty Equality, and Justice in TPDM, Ethiopia), EPPF, EUFF, EPRP, OLF-new
(led by General K. Gelchu)  

C.        ONLF, OLF, ODF, ANLF, ALF

D.        TPLF/EPRDF party and its fabricated
breeds

Each of
the four groups is likely to engage its other three rivals in three modes:  confrontational, cooperative or collaborative.
Moreover there will be internal struggle within each group not to mention
infiltration by cadres of the ruling regime. Therefore the quality of members
and strict discipline will determine the success of a group.  

In the figure to the right, the letters A, B, C, D denote: pro-Ethiopian unity national
democratic entities embracing peaceful method of struggle short of pulling the
trigger; pro-Ethiopian unity democratic movements with all-inclusive method of
struggle; liberation movements with secessionist agenda; and the destructive TPLF/EPRDF
party and its fabricated affiliates in that order. The stance of each group on
the unity of Ethiopia is an overriding factor in ranking its favorability to
the people of Ethiopia in the political process. Here below is my view of what
will transpire in the process.

Groups A
and B have identical and unequivocal stand on the unity of Ethiopia with a reconcilable
difference in their method of struggle, the latter reserving its right to
all-inclusive, which the former also will be forced to embrace in self-defense
in response to armed attack by the repressive ruling party. They have both
significant contributions in weakening the TPLF/EPRDF regime  

In group C:
(i) the ODF will probably merge with either group A or B in time for one of its
senior members Mr. Lencho Bati had publicly stated work is in progress to
change the acronym ODF to EDF, Ethiopian Democratic Front; (ii) I believe that
the interests of the Afar National Liberation Front (ANLF) and Afar Liberation
Front (AFL) will be better served by not ceding from a democratic Ethiopia; the
ONLF leaders should realize that Ethiopians have shed their blood fighting
Fascist Italy in the Ogaden and have therefore the right to demand that the
Front should drop its secession scheme if any; (iii) the OLF-old under Daoud
Ibssa is all but dead since it carries the stigma of OLF stripped naked of its
weapons and its leaders disgracefully sent  into exile by the TPLF warlords and giving
empty promise of emancipating the Oromo people for the last 22 years.

The
TPLF/EPRDF party together with its fabricated breeds in group D is the main
targets of groups A, B, C and as such will be crushed by the impending massive
popular wrath and corruption and heinous crimes, imploding the powerhouse of
the TPLF built on sand. However it is reasonable to expect migration of junior
members in group D to either A or B. It will make sense to accept them on merit
after a careful background check.

Finally
groups A, B, and C will contest for power, but group C can hardly wield
sufficient popular support to engage the might of either group A or B. It
stands to reason that three political parties may emerge from A and B; this
would be a good omen for ushering in a democratic Ethiopia.

Formidable challenges for the opposition
& the Ethiopian people

The following are but some of the most critical inputs to
the foreign and domestic policy formulation that will have to be undertaken
during and after transitional government

Ethiopian
waters and fertile land are the most precious natural resources our nation has
got; our rivers and fertile land suitable for agriculture are priceless jewels
more than diamond; mighty weapons to deter aggression against traditional
enemies; irreplaceable sources for growing food in abundance and sell the
surplus to the Middle East thus becoming the food basket of that region. It
goes without saying that the management of these natural resources requires
national consensus based on scientific studies taking into consideration the
right of regions (Kilils) to tame their rivers tributary to the Blue Nile and
build dams for irrigation and electric power generation.

Immediate
and unconditional release of all political prisoners in Ethiopia; respect for Universal
declaration on human rights; amendment to the present constitution of the
TPLF/EPRDF, Article 39 in particular.

Rampant youth
unemployment: This an explosive issue not only for Ethiopia but several
countries in the world.  

Private
property including land: This is a reliable and effective engine for economic
growth and national security because people will have vested interest to defend
what they own.

Secular
state: Separation of politics from religion is a fundamental principle; the former
is an earthly matter which concerns all Ethiopians and the latter is in the
heavenly domain exclusive to spiritual choice of the individual.

Expenditure
on security and defense has up to the present proved an intolerable hemorrhage
on natural resources; several internal battles had been fought in the last 72
years after victory over Fascist Italy with the help of the British army. The
war of aggression by Somalia was won with the help of Cuba and the defunct
USSR. But the civil war with Shaebia and its surrogate TPLF assisted by the
Arab reactionaries has been lost, leaving Ethiopia a landlocked country.
Moreover a large chunk of fertile land has been ceded to the Sudan and
Ethiopia’s right over the Nile water was betrayed by the secret agreement of the
1993 Nile Accord signed between tyrant Meles Zenawi and dictator
Hosni Mubarak. The failure to put in place an independent national security and
defense establishment begs for extensive  surgical analysis.

The GERD
if built at its present site without reducing its size would be prone to attack
which the TPLF warlords would use as justification to purchase from Russia
advanced military equipment. It would be a waste of money to enrich the Russians and
get kickback for the corrupt TPLF warlords. Imagine how much money was spent
building the Ethiopian army in the last several decades; the humiliating result
is that Ethiopia is now a landlocked country.

Egypt gets more than its share of the Blue Nile water. I
am informed by a reliable water resources Ethiopian senior engineer, who was holding
a high position in the Ethiopian Water Resource Authority during the Derg regime
that building the GERD is to the advantage of the Sudan and Egypt. He cited as
an example that for cleaning alluvial soil Sudan used to pay 210 million US
dollars per annum to Ethiopia and this would be lost because only clean water
would flow to through the RD. In other wards Sudan and Egypt would no longer
need alluvial soil from Ethiopia. The same reputed engineer told me that there
was a plan to divert some Blue Nile tributaries in Shoa to the Awash River to
increase its volume. It was a very sensible plan. So even the
brutal Derg regime had to its credit asserted Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the
Blue Nile. The future democratic government of Ethiopia would do no less
in asserting the veto power of Ethiopia in any multilateral forum regarding the
development of the Nile Basin to which our country contributes 85% of the
water.

I close this piece with my daily mantra, which is: Demand the immediate and unconditional
release of all prisoners of conscience including Andualem Aragie, Eskinder Nega, Bekele Gerba, Reeyot Alemu, Leaders of
the Ethiopian Muslims et al!