A Proxy Campaign against Ethiopia?

For so many years now the IRN, International River Network, this self-
appointed “guardian” of all rivers of the world, has been leaving no stone unturned
in its effort to subvert Ethiopia’s efforts to develop its water resources and lift its
vast and growing population out of poverty. This is manifested most glaringly in its
incessant negative campaign against the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
(GERD), initiated from the very first days when the idea of water resources
development on the Abbay was floated, including even through the Nile Basin
Initiative.

Apart from being amused, the NPOE so far had chosen to ignore IRN’s anti-
Ethiopia lobbying which is driven by an ideological, if not fanatical-messianic
mission to “protect [the world’s] rivers and … to stop destructive dams”. IRN is
accuser, police, judge and jury all rolled into one. IRN determines for countries,
particularly for developing and poor countries like Ethiopia, how to do water
resources development projects the “right” way. For these “backward” countries,
IRN is the high priest that communes with God the Almighty and determines what
is the most environmentally appropriate, most efficient and economical, and most
beneficial for local, national and regional not only flora and fauna but also human
communities too. What paternalism!!

Until now we did not find it worthwhile to get into polemics with what we
thought were basically misinformed and misguided IRN activists. That is, until
now. But now we are compelled to revise our stance toward these people. The
straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak, happened on March 31, 2014 when
IRN posted on its website a piece entitled “ GERD panel of Experts Report: Big
Questions Remain” in which IRN explicitly called on Ethiopia to halt the
construction of GERD!!

It would be unconscionable for us as professional Ethiopians well versed
with and advising on GERD related issues to keep on looking at these people with
bemusement and indifference when they peddle, clearly siding with Egypt,
distorted, unsubstantiated and hostile mercenary propaganda against GERD and
the Ethiopian people. It would take pages and pages to show the intense partisan
nature of IRN in its entirety. However, the next few paragraphs suffice to illustrate
our concern and to show a clear pattern of IRN’s growing hostility toward Ethiopia.
IRN’s campaign against GERD and Ethiopia happened in four overlapping but
discernable distinct stages:

Stage 1: Dissuade them!

True to its anti-dam creed, IRN did its best to discourage the idea of dam building
in Ethiopia in the first place. IRN put forth whatever argument to dissuade
decision makers. Arguments included those dams of a GERD scale would drain the
national budget, would distort priorities, would be difficult to fund, etc. Here is one
quote from their website:

“The US$5 billion scheme [GERD] is out of scale for such a poor country; the
current cost estimate equals the country’s entire annual budget. The costly
project is monopolizing government funding for the energy sector, leaving
many worthy projects that would directly address the nation’s high energy
poverty underfunded.”

IRN, in a piece titled “A Tale of Two Dams: Comparing Ethiopia’s Grand
Renaissance to Hoover” and “drawing lessons” from ‘follies’ of the Hoover Dam,
offered advice to Ethiopia: do not repeat USA’s mistakes! We will not go into the
contentious and invalid arguments, to say the least, put forward and better ignore
IRN’s unsolicited advice. What is interesting is the poison that is wrapped in the
package of IRN’s advice. Read on:

“Ethiopian engineers recently compared the Grand Renaissance Dam to
Hoover as a project that can lift a struggling nation out of poverty, and a
project whose accomplishments will go down in history. Yet the darker
lessons from Hoover’s long history might be equally relevant for Ethiopia to
review. Consider: The mega dam model is a dinosaur. Ethiopia would be
better off leapfrogging over it to a more modern and efficient system, and find
less provocative ways to assert its interests over the Nile waters”

IRN’s message is not only that Ethiopia should not build big dams. The message is
also that Ethiopia should stop being “provocative”. IRN advises Ethiopia to assert
its right other than through being provocative i.e. other than through deciding to
build GERD. To IRN, Ethiopia’s decision to build GERD is provocation!! So much,
for IRN’s “advice”!

When the above tactics fail, IRN, referring to an expert (which it conveniently
pluralizes), sheds crocodile tears by stating that Ethiopia is wasting its scarce
resources on oversized projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Here is
another quote from their website:

“Ethiopia’s Biggest Dam Oversized, Experts Say Date: Thursday, September
5, 2013.

In May, Ethiopia diverted the Blue Nile to begin building its largest dam project
to date, the 6,000 MW Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) – a move that
angered Egypt, which fears its water supply will shrink over the many years it
will take to fill the huge reservoir. Besides the tensions this huge project is
causing politically, there is growing concern that the dam will not produce
nearly as much power as it has been designed to.”

Again, IRN never loses opportunity to lobby for its Egyptian paymasters. Not only
does IRN talk about the “oversize” of GERD, but also about the Egyptians’ negative
emotions over GERD: anger and fear!

In yet another alarmist piece related to GERD, IRN bemoaning “Ethiopia’s Dam
Boom”, fabricates outrageous white lies:

“International Rivers is monitoring dam planning in Ethiopia, working to keep
international donors from investing in the worst projects on the drawing
boards, and sharing knowledge about better alternatives and the legacy of
Ethiopia’s past dams with international civil society.

Water for irrigation from large reservoirs is mostly earmarked for large-scale
agricultural producers – and increasingly, for foreign agricultural
developments taking advantage of a government-sponsored land leasing
program.

Alas, IRN has nothing factual to show, in any of the GERD plans, to substantiate
its claim that GERD is an irrigation project!! We should not dwell on this any
longer for the facts speak for themselves.

Stage 2: Smear campaign

When its dissuasion tactic failed and GERD implementation proceeded on with
earnest, IRN had to embark on what we may term its Stage 2 tactics: a smear
campaign. Here IRN does all it can to find any fault – big or small, real or
imagined- with GERD in a bid to discredit it in the eyes of the world, particularly
funders. Here is one quote from an IRN piece of 06/07/2013 with an eye catching
alarmist title “Why has the Nile become a Battleground?:

“This week, Ethiopia announced it was diverting the flow of the Blue Nile to
begin building the huge Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Within days,
water-stressed Egypt – a downstream Nile Basin nation – called for Ethiopia to
halt its work on the giant new dam. Why is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam causing such strife? In addition to Egypt’s fears that it will reduce its
lifeline of Nile waters, the tensions have been fanned by the project’s “SAD”
planning process:

• Secretive: Although it is Africa’s biggest dam project and will have lasting
impacts on its longest river, it has been developed under a veil of secrecy.

• Autocratic: The dam will impact Ethiopians and downstream neighbors, yet
its planning process has been top-down and unilateral. The public and dam-
affected people have not been given a meaningful opportunity to critique the
project or process.

• Dismissive: Ethiopian government officials have flatly stated they will not
make changes to the project, and have asserted that the project will not have
impacts on downstream countries

The dam poses a number of risks to these downstream neighbors; one reason
for the growing tension is that these risks have not been properly analyzed.
Egypt has virtually no other sources of water for its people, and is already
making do with less water per person than the international average. By at
least one estimate, the Grand Renaissance reservoir could evaporate 3bn
cubic meters of water a year – three times Egypt’s annual rainfall, and enough
to meet the basic needs of up to half a million people. The reservoir could take
3-5 years to fill, reducing Egypt’s water supply by up to 25%.

However, damming off a shared river in a secretive and unilateral fashion is a
provocative approach to resolving conflict in a water-stressed basin such as
the Nile. Says Mohamed Allam, former minister of irrigation and water
resources in Egypt: “This is not just about Egypt and Sudan. International
rivers are governed by laws and conventions, in accordance with which any
action that affects water quotas requires advanced notice and guarantees
against possible harm.”

The Nile situation is not an isolated incident. Ethiopia is being similarly
aggressive over the development of the shared Omo River, where it is building
the controversial Gibe III Dam and developing large-scale plantations. These
developments threaten Kenya’s Lake Turkana”.

IRN, the all-knowing God of water resources development, is angry that Ethiopia
did not observe its commandment of good water resources planning.

Oh, GERD planning is too “secretive” concludes IRN. As if Egypt shared hers with
us! IRN can dream all it wants. But we deal in and with the real world.

GERD planning is autocratic says IRN – it was not discussed with its neighbors!

GERD planning is dismissive judges IRN – since Ethiopia will not change the
parameters of the project!

Oh GERD is wasteful condemns IRN – It will evaporate 3 BMC of water annually,
equivalent to a non-existent Egyptian rainfall! IRN is making this fabricated
statement, while keeping mum on the 10-15 BMC annual evaporation loss the
Egyptian High Aswan Dam is causing in the middle of the Sahara Desert! How
“fair” of IRN!!

Oh yes, GERD is provocative, says IRN, referring to Mohamed Allam, of all people, a
former Egyptian Minister hostile to Ethiopia and eternal defender of the self
claimed Egyptian quota.

Oh yes, GERD is harmful bemoans IRN, because it is going to affect Egypt, which
has no other source of water, which is making do with less water per person.

Oh, dear IRN folks, need we tell you that of all African Countries, surely of all Nile
Basin countries, it is only Egypt that has over 98% of its population with access to
potable water, while an Ethiopian girl of sixteen has to go on average 6 kilometers
each day back and forth to fetch a gallon of water from a river or a dug hole!! How
“fair” of IRN! IRN, as usual, never missed this opportunity to work on and provoke
friendly and neighboring Kenya! As far back as Mach 2004, IRN, in a cynical piece
on the Nile Basin Initiative titled “Can the Nile States Dam Their Way to
Cooperation?” in the part which discussed the Tekeze Dam had “warned”:

“Ethiopia has reportedly neglected to formally consult with downstream Sudan
and Egypt on the scheme, a decision which could further strain relations
between the countries”

Oh IRN folks. What do you say to the appreciation Sudan is heaping on Ethiopia for
the positive impact of that dam!!

Stage 3: Create Alarm!

IRN, noticing that its dissuasion and smear campaigns did not achieve its goals of
stopping GERD at its inception or planning stages, embarked desperately to create
alarm among the international community and downstream countries the fervor of
which the Egyptians might envy.

IRN first attempted spinning or otherwise amplifying a conspiracy theory about
GERD thus:

“The project’s launch came in the midst of the Egyptian revolution, which some
observers believe was intended to take advantage of the more powerful
nation’s confused political state at a time when the issue of who controls the
Nile is heating up.”

IRN also “psychologized” Ethiopia’s decision to build the GERD thus:

“Egypt has long held the majority rights to the Nile – a situation that especially
angers Ethiopia, which is the source of 85% of the river’s waters.”

Be that as it may, the worst is that IRN seems to wish any conflict, violent or
otherwise, between Egypt and Ethiopia is better than seeing the GERD completed.
Here is another one:

“While there are no known studies about the dam’s impacts on the river’s
flow, filling such a huge reservoir (it will hold up to 67 billion cubic meters of
water, and could take up to seven years to reach capacity) will certainly
impact Egypt, which relies almost totally on the Nile for its water supply.
Development Today magazine reports that the Nile flow into Egypt could be cut
by 25% during the filling period. Many fear the project could set off a water
war in the region, and indeed, in mid-2013, tensions flared dramatically.
Climate change could increase the project’s many risks. The potential for
conflict is probably the main reason international funders have shown no
interest in supporting the project.”

Again IRN’s concern is Egypt’s water security, not Ethiopia’s poverty, water, energy
and food insecurity! And then the allusion to conflict, referring to Many” (whoever
they are!) who fear the almost inevitable conflict and war that would follow if
Ethiopia proceeds with GERD. Oh, international financiers beware! Do not put your
money there. What shameless partisanship of IRN. Should we be accused if we
suspect payment under the table?

Stage 4: Conduct a Stop Them Campaign!

IRN, realizing its preceding three maneuvers did not yield any meaningful result,
had to come to the open, reveal itself and launch its outright and blatant campaign
against the GERD.

In a June 2013 piece titled “Why has the Nile River Become a Battleground?”
the IRN speculated:

“But what if Ethiopia refuses to engage? Some believe the International Court
of Justice should be called in. – a move that Ethiopia rejects. Others hope
Ethiopia’s major donors will use their diplomatic leverage to intervene. . . .”
The article further urged that “Western donors have thus far mostly stayed out
of the debate on Ethiopia’s dam building. Yet Ethiopia is one of the world’s
largest recipients of foreign aid. The US has been the largest donor to the
country, through a range of programs. Ethiopia has been receiving $3.5 billion
on average from international donors in recent years – a critical portion of its
national budget. This assistance explains how such a poor nation can afford
to build costly dams and irrigation infrastructure without dedicated funding.
Western donors such as the United States have a responsibility to step up
diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia …”

IRN’s maneuverings and multifaceted campaigns notwithstanding, the GERD
progress has continued unabated, almost a third complete, thanks to the whole
hearted and unequivocal support for and rally of the Ethiopian people behind their
project! IRN seems to have gotten desperate. There is nothing more telling of this
than its latest piece, dated March 31, 2014, apparently based on a “leaked” IPOE
report, full of lies and distortions, entitled “GERD Panel of Experts Report: Big
Questions Remain.” Here is an extensive quote from that piece:

“The mega dam is being built on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, near the Sudan
border, and has created conflict with Egypt over its downstream impacts; the
experts’ study confirms Egypt’s concerns that the project’s impacts could be
significant and are not well understood. Egypt has called for mediation if
further studies are not allowed; at this writing, Ethiopia had refused, and was
continuing with dam construction.

…. It is also clear that there is precious little oversight on Africa’s largest dam
project to date. While the international panel has brought a type of oversight, it
may be too little, too late – and with too little teeth; it seems the panel does not
have a continuing role in ensuring best practices as construction proceeds. The
panel’s report is almost a year old at this writing, yet its members have been
mostly silent since their report was completed (as far as we know, none of the
panelists have made public statements about the project). The Egyptian and
Ethiopian governments continue the war of words, while at the same time
construction on the mega dam proceeds, and questions raised by the panel
remain unanswered. Going forward, International Rivers recommends
construction on the project be halted until all necessary studies
recommended by the panel are completed, and a process is in place for
ensuring public accountability on the project. Given the panel’s findings,
Egypt’s call for mediation in the process is reasonable, and donor
governments and international bodies should support such a process”

In the first place the IPoE did not have an “oversight” role as erroneously stated by IRN.
The IPoE’s role as defined by the three Ministers of water affairs of Egypt, Ethiopia and
Sudan is “ mainly facilitative, focused on promoting dialogue and understanding around
GERD related issues of interest to the three countries so as to build trust and confidence
among all parties.”

We appreciate the response to the biased IRN article posted on hornaffairs.com by Mr
Danieil Berhane entitled, “ Anti=dam group doctors report, joins Egypt to stop Ethiopia’s
dam” (April 6, 2014 hornaffairs.com). We invite readers to read this article for a line by line
rebuttal to the IRN unsubstantiated and distorted writing entitled, “GERD Panel of Experts
Report: Big Questions Remain, Monday, March 31, 2014”

We would however like to pose our own BIG QUESTIONS to IRN:

Where in the IPoE report do the IRN experts find recommendation of the IPoE that states
to stop or delay the GERD until the recommended additional studies are conducted??!

Where in the report do the IRN experts find a statement that states “the experts’ study
confirms Egypt’s concerns that the project’s impacts could be significant and are not well
understood.” ??!

What is peculiar with the panel’s recommendation to conduct “a full transboundary
environmental and social impact assessment … conducted jointly by the three countries.”,
since theTransboundary Environmental and Socioeconomic Impact study conducted
through the initiative of Ethiopia and based on desk study requires more data and
information from the downstream countries??!

The desk study has clearly shown that all expected downstream impacts can be mitigated
and thus the more detailed recommended studies will not change the major findings of
the desk study. Other studies done by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office of the
NBI have also confirmed that changes in hydrological conditions due to GERD are all
manageable. Thus these additional studies do not necessitate the delay or stopping of the
construction of the GERDP .

Instead of sowing seeds of mistrust with your unsubstantiated writings among the people
of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, we offer our humble advice to appreciate the most obvious
benefits of the GERDP for the downstream countries that may assist you to be rational
and refrain from propagating irresponsible and biased information.

1. The energy generation from the GERD will enhance regional and economic
integration such as through power interconnectedness, regional cooperation, trust
and confidence building.

2. Due to regulated and increased flows a longer period of navigation on the Nile River
downstream High Aswan Dam (HAD) will be possible. This will have important
benefits for the tourism sector by extending the present touristic period.

3. The HAD reservoir capacity loss due to sedimentation will be reduced since the
GERD Reservoir will store substantial quantity of sediments.

4. With GERD operating upstream, average annual HAD losses will be 9.5 BCM/year
instead of 10.8 BCM/year in case of HAD alone. Losses by evaporation, decrease by
12% comparing to HAD alone situations.

5. With GERD there will be increased flood control and due to its routing capacity
there will be better flood control downstream of HAD and Risk of HAD overtopping
will be eliminated.

6. With GERD, the total storage capacity along the Nile River will significantly
increase in the long term. This will reduce the risk due to hydrological variability
with sequences of dry and wet years.

7. The GERD will regulate the flows of the Blue Nile and this will support flows
arriving at HAD.

8. The GERD will reduce negative impacts on population and infrastructures in
Sudan caused by recurrent floods.

9. The GERD will capture sediment, protecting irrigation canals and equipment from
damages caused by sedimentation both in Sudan and Egypt.

10. The GERD will improve Sudanese dams efficiency and water use optimization and
energy generation will be increased by more than 2,657 GWh/year due to the
GERD regulation of flow.

Conclusion

It is obvious that in its desperation the IRN has been forced to come out and show its true
color: a proxy for Egypt masquerading as an international environmental group fighting
for the health of rivers!!

In all its ranting does IRN feel obliged, even if to feign decency, neutrality and disinterest,
to mention Ethiopia’s need and desperation. By the way, is not Sudan a downstream
country? Why does IRN shut up about Sudan’s identification with and support for
GERD?!!!!!!!!!

Why does IRN dwell and fight exclusively for Egyptian interests, harps on their real or
imagined and fabricated fears, while not uttering a single word about the waste incurred
via the High Aswan Dam (HAD), via the Toshka project, etc?

By contrast, IRN never feels obliged to mention a single merit of GERD. It is a taboo!

IRN has no boundaries of shame. It accuses the IPOE members of ‘keeping silent”! Should
every sensible human being on the face of the earth turn into a corrupt IRN partisan
activist?

The IRN! The IRN that resides in California, USA, whose activists never have endured or
experienced what it means to go thirsty or hungry for days; the IRN, if it had all the power
to do so would have halted all water resources development projects all over the
developing world.

Or, is it only in Ethiopia?

Consider this: Prior to1950 large scale dams worldwide did not number more than 5000.
By 2000 large scale dams were more than 40,000. As of 2006, they stood at over 50,000.
IRN’s campaigns notwithstanding, big dams are there to grow, especially in the developing
world. So, given these trends what is IRN talking about, except to single out a single
country, Ethiopia, and treat it as pariah and discourage its progress? Ethiopia never
forgets the pains it had to bear due to its geography. Ethiopia has endured centuries of
invasions and subversions by powers from far and close that aspired to control the
headwaters of the Nile. Ethiopia has been prevented physically from accessing its water
resources by keeping it busy with wars, direct or proxy wars. IRN’s anti Ethiopia
campaign is but a continuation of that history – by another means, that is.

Be that as it may, we condemn IRN’s unfair and biased support for Egypt in its
disagreements with Ethiopia contrary to its own mission statement. We categorically
reject IRN’s advice to Ethiopia to accept its proposal and halt construction of GERD. What
more do we need to prove our contention that IRN is doing ethically dubious job and
propagating proxy campaigns against Ethiopia on behalf of Egypt.

We would like IRN, all friends and foes to know that the Ethiopian people are determined
to develop their water resources and the construction of GERDP will not stop or delayed
for a second.