It is completely wrong to assume that TPLF/EPRDF or any other dictatorship for that
matter is undefeatable. Dictators are dependent on the people they rule for their existence.
It is this dependence that creates their Achilles-heel. Thus dictators are defeatable if they
are struck at their Achilles-heel. (I have discussed these weaknesses of dictators in one of
my articles under የሰላም ትግል ሠራዊት posted on Ethiomedia).
Yes, it may take years to build a nation-wide millions-man strong army of peaceful
struggle to wage a successful nation-wide peaceful uprising. Yes, it may require a lot of
work to bring all or major opposition parties together, exposing the regime as well as
building a nation-wide election-result-defending millions-man strong army to force
TPLF/EPRDF accept its defeats following elections. Of course, if there is defeat!
I do not see any reason why Ethiopian pro-democracy force can not defeat its dictatorship
given all the required homework is sufficiently met before waging the peaceful struggle.
Just like the pro-democracy forces of any other countries, Ethiopian pro-democracy
forces are also good enough to stand up and defeat their own dictators when the time is
ripe. That is, if there is a clearly defined goal, a well-thought grand strategy and
campaign strategies are calculated, error-free tactics are planned as well as appropriate
mass political defiance and mass non-cooperation weapons of peaceful struggle are
selected. Yes, Ethiopia may have its peculiarities including ethnic issues within the army
and between regions the regime would love to exploit! Thus the peaceful struggle or
uprising may not be as easy as was in Egypt. However, the solution is not to declare
defeat and surrender even before trying a single day political defiance sit-in at Ethiopian
“change square” or a single nation-wide non-cooperation strike. Therefore the solution is
simply to be prepared better not quit!
Regarding the idea of grand-coalition proposed by Messay, if he meant power sharing, I
do not think that dictators are in the business of sharing or rendering power at will. In
addition, that issue was raised by the opposition during 2005 post-election period and did
not get acceptance by Meles. I remember his answer was short to the demand: “Coalition
with the opposition is unthinkable.” I think he has also characterized coalition with
opposition as undesirable debating club (I stand to be corrected if I am mistaken). So I
think Meles is beyond a point of return on that issue. Of courses, if TPLF/EPRDF was
forced to accept its election defeat by a nation-wide organized millions-man strong
peaceful struggle army and if also it believed that accepting defeat was the only best
option left for TPLF/EPRDF to continue staying on power it would have accepted the
proposal. Alternately if Messay meant the formation of an authoritarian grand coalition
that simply focuses on developmental stuff abandoning democracy, I doubt its feasibility.
In closing, I always believe that the power of the Ethiopian people is much more stronger
than the power of TPLF/EPRDF.
—
Girma Moges has written extensively on the power of a non-violent form of struggle. He can be reached at [email protected]
