This hope dissipated last week when government forces shot dead about 30 protesters on the streets of Addis Ababa and rounded up leading opposition figures. The United Nations, the US, and the European Union appealed for calm and restraint, but there was silence on this massive crackdown from other African countries.

At the centre of Ethiopia’s political crisis is a disputed election result. While there is evidence in the case of Zimbabwe that the ruling regime stole the recent election, it is too early to come to this conclusion in the case of Ethiopia.

But there is a basis for suspicions. Three weeks after the election in Ethiopia, only provisional results are available and the government reckons it could be about a month before the final results will be available. One of the reasons the government has given for the delay in the official results is that irregularities are being investigated.

The popular suspicion about the reasons for the delay has arisen largely because Meles has ruled with an iron fist since he seized power in 1991.

Most observers expected Meles’ party to win because the opposition was untested. However, there is a high degree of popular dissatisfaction with Meles among certain sections of the population, particularly as the government has failed to effectively deliver.

Meles may give the image of an economic and political reformer, but his policies belie a strong dictatorial bent. The opposition parties based their campaign on an end to the state’s ownership of land as a means of poverty reduction and dealing with the problems faced by the country’s ethnic minorities.

It initially appeared that all was above board with the Ethiopian poll. International observers said it had, on the whole, been free and fair. There was criticism of polling in certain areas and also over the issue of the ruling party’s dominance of the state-owned media.

As results came in showing that the two oppositions groupings had done unexpectedly well in the poll, the political storm began. The two main opposition coalitions said they refused to accept the provisional result giving the ruling coalition a victory. The provisional results gave the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front 300 seats and the two main opposition groupings more than 180 seats, a little under a third of the total. In the old parliament, 88% of the seats were held by the ruling coalition.

Tensions are now running high and could lead to wider conflict in the country. Any conflict in Ethiopia, which has a population of about 70-million and is a considerable regional power, would have dire consequences for the region.

One of the risks is that war could reignite between Eritrea and Ethiopia. It is rare that democratically elected leaders who have clear support from their people go to war. It is usually autocrats wishing to distract a dissatisfied population who go to war. The danger of this cannot be dismissed out of hand because Ethiopia has refused to accept an international ruling on its border with Eritrea.

Last week’s repression shows that UK Prime Minister Tony Blair made a major blunder in appointing Meles to the Commission for Africa. At the core of the commission’s report is the belief that better governance and greater accountability of governments to their people is required for development.

The blood in the streets of Addis Ababa just weeks ahead of the Group of Eight summit can only undercut public support for a massive increase in development aid to African countries. (Business Day editorial, Johannesburg, June 13, 2005)