All over Africa, the dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt are followed, with opposition groups and dissidents hoping the same could happen in their country. Mostly, these are only dreams, but some could come true.
The first sub-Saharan copycat of the North African wave of revolution has already had his try. Gabon’s opposition leader André Mba Obame in January tried to stage a revolution inspired by Tunisia by declaring he had indeed won the August 2009 (!) presidential election in the country.
After a swearing-in ceremony, broadcasted by a private TV channel owned by himself, self-declared “President” Obame called for mass demonstrations to force President Ali Bongo out of office. Gabonese police forces had a relatively easy job dispersing the hundreds of protesters supporting Mr Obame.
It is noteworthy that the most widespread talk of Tunisia-like revolutions in African countries is registered in the Central African region and in the Horn of Africa. But the differences are great, with the Diaspora shouting loudest for revolution on the Horn and the local opposition being most active in Central Africa.
The sociology of fear
Among analysts, these differences are put in connection with the sociology of fear. In Tunisia and Egypt, the discontent populace was gripped with fear for decades, but as the fear let loose, there was nothing stopping them from pouring into the streets and demand regime change.
A parallel to this happened in Ethiopia in 2005, when hundreds of thousands suddenly dared to protest the probable fixed vote that kept Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in power. The opposition’s surprisingly good election results – widely interpreted as a popular majority for the opposition – removed popular fear of the regime and allowed for ample protests.
But PM Zenawi stroke back. The 2005 demonstrations were brutally subdued, repression became tougher all over the country and any real opposition was suppressed. The Ethiopian government managed to reinstall the agenda of public fear, however sweetening it with massive economic and social gains.
Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Diaspora is among the most radical of African diasporas calling for revolution in their homeland. They loudly urge for an Egyptian-style revolt in Ethiopia. But they are not likely to succeed, as the environment of fear is rather increasing than decreasing in their homeland.
In neighbouring Sudan, with strong cultural and historic ties to Egypt, hundreds of dissatisfied youths in Khartoum for two weeks tried to build momentum for their protest movement, with every manifestation so far being brutally subdued by riot police forces. But the crowds participating in the protests keep being far below a threshold that could spark wider public protest.
Also in (northern) Sudan, fear is ruling. But in addition to the fea
Kizza Besigye on an electoral rally in Bubutu, Uganda
