Building Stormed

Eritrea Mutiny Shows Growing Military Discontent With Isaias


By William Davison, Bloomberg; January 25, 2013

A day-long mutiny by Eritrean
soldiers this week signals growing discontent with President
Isaias Afwerki’s two-decade grip on power and economic hardship,
said analysts including Dan Connell at Simmons College.

The rare show of dissent against what Human Rights Watch
describes as one of the world’s most repressive regimes also
fuels speculation that Isaias, 66, may be ailing, according to
Stratfor, the Austin, Texas-based intelligence group. The former
rebel leader has ruled the Horn of Africa nation since 1991,
when a 30-year war for independence from neighboring Ethiopia
ended. Eritrea is a one-party state.

“Dissatisfaction inside the military is widespread,
especially at the middle and lower levels,” Connell, the author
of seven books on the country, said in an e-mailed response to
questions yesterday. “I expect more of this in the coming
months, particularly if the regime cracks down heavily.”

Eritrea is among the most difficult places in the world to
do business and is ninth from bottom in a ranking of the poorest
countries, according to the World Bank. Private industry is
constrained by “haphazard” regulations, foreign-currency
restrictions and the “high risk” of assets being expropriated,
the African Development Bank said on its website.

The country relies on gold and other metals produced by
Nevsun Resources Ltd.’s (NSU) Bisha mine and remittances from a tax it
imposes on Eritreans living abroad to generate most of its
foreign exchange. About a quarter of Eritrea’s 5.4 million
population lives overseas and are threatened with having their
entry rights withdrawn, their properties seized or families
harassed if they don’t pay, according to the United Nations.

Building Stormed

As many as 200 soldiers stormed the Ministry of Information
building that houses state television in the capital, Asmara, on
Jan. 21 and took its occupants hostage, according to Stratfor. A
newsreader then read a list of demands including calls for the
release of political prisoner and the implementation of a 1997
constitution, it said on its website.

The occupation ended after troops loyal to Isaias
surrounded the building, the mutineers released their hostages
and agreed to return to their base, Stratfor said.

The mutiny was “probably a show of force by more senior
elements of the military, in an effort to nudge along political
and economic reform,” Michael Woldemariam, professor of
International Relations and an expert on African politics at
Boston University, said in an e-mailed response to questions.

Illness

The rebellion may have been led by General Saleh Osman, a
veteran of Eritrea’s independence war who previously engaged in
talks for democratization with the president’s office, according
to Stratfor. General Filipos Woldeyohannes, a former confidant
of Isaias who “fell from grace,” may also have been involved,
it said.

“While these troops did not receive the support from other
military commanders that they were apparently hoping for, they
were able to cast doubt on the ability of the regime to protect
itself,” Stratfor said.

Isaias may be suffering from a liver ailment and has sought
medical treatment in Qatar, according to a Feb. 16, 2011, report
by Awate.com, a California-based opposition website. The
government in April denied what it said was an “intensive
campaign of rumor” that the president is terminally ill.

“There is no second-in-command and no single general who
could take Isaias’s place, so the only viable option to avoid a
major rupture for those in power for a transition is a committee
of some sort that brings together representatives of the main
power centers,” Connell said.

President Targeted

The dissidents may have been targeting a faction within the
ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice, or PFDJ, and
military officials who back the president, Michael said.

Isaias and loyalists have been arresting senior military
and political figures since Jan. 23 in response to the
rebellion, said Abel Abate Demissie, a researcher at the
Ethiopian government-linked Ethiopian International Institute
for Peace and Development, citing unidentified Eritrean sources.

“Isaias knows there are prominent people in a power
struggle who are conspiring and he’s started to react,” he said
in a telephone interview from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.
“I am sure fractures will broaden in the coming days and
months. The writing is on the wall.”

The government hasn’t officially acknowledged the Jan. 21
incident. Phone calls and text messages seeking comment to the
mobile-phone of Eritrea’s Ambassador to the African Union Girma
Asmerom haven’t been answered since Jan. 21.

Opacity

“The opacity surrounding Eritrea’s government is thickest
when it comes to internal power struggles and the fates of
political prisoners,” Mohamed Keita, Africa advocacy
coordinator at the New York-based Committee to Protect
Journalists, said in a phone interview on Jan. 23.

Eritrea outlawed private media in 2001 and the government
has arbitrarily detained thousands of people including
journalists and opposition supporters over the past decade,
according to Amnesty International, the London-based advocacy
group.

The implementation of Eritrea’s constitution has been
suspended since war broke out with Ethiopia in 1998 because of a
dispute about ownership of the border town of Badme. The two-
year conflict cost 70,000 lives. Eritrea is still on a war
footing over the unresolved dispute, Girma said on Jan. 16.
Conscripts to the army, public services and industry have been
“permanently mobilized” since the conflict, he said.

UN Sanctions

The country has been under UN sanctions since 2009 for
supporting Ethiopian rebels and al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab
militants in their battle against a Western-backed government in
Somalia. Eritrea denies the charges and says Ethiopia is in
defiance of international law for stalling implementation of a
2002 decision by a UN border committee that awarded Badme to
Eritrea.

Nevsun, based in Vancouver, said the Jan. 21 incident had
no impact on operations at Bisha, which also produces copper and
zinc. The stock has fallen 9.1 percent in Toronto since the
mutiny, trading at C$4.20 as of 9:58 a.m. local time. Sunridge
Gold Corp. (SGC), which is drilling for gold in Eritrea, has fallen
8.1 percent and traded at 26.5 Canadian cents in Toronto.

South Boulder Mines Ltd. (STB), based in Perth, is building a
potash mine in Eritrea, while China SFECO, a unit of Shanghai
Construction Co. (600170), bought the Zara Project off Australia’s
Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (CHN) last year.

Ethiopia is concerned about a “crumbled” regime “taking
down” the region with it, said Getachew Reda, a spokesman for
Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. Addis Ababa will take
“proportional measures” against Eritrean subversion and wants
negotiations on the border, he said.

“I think the world would be better off without Isaias,”
he said. “But it’s not for us to decide whether Isaias should
go.”