Can we go Egypt on TPLF government?

| February 26, 2011

For eighteen full days Egypt shook the whole
world.  Those brave Egyptians inspired
us, we were glued to our televisions and watched their every move, we envied
them, rejoiced with them, felt their pain, and when finally the dictator fled
the city we joined in their jubilation.

The aftershock of this earth moving revolution had
an immediate effect in North Africa and Middle East. Movement of the people erupted
everywhere, sending shiver down the spine of every authoritarian ruler on this
planet. People’s power in action was paraded on TV, not to be ignored any
longer. Dictator after dictator scrambled to quell the rising tide, some by
outright massacre and some by giving series of concessions to preempt them. To
date, the outcome of these uprisings is not clear.  But the struggle is far from over. It will
continue and will reach every corner of the world.

The question in everyone’s mind is, “could Egypt be
replicated in Ethiopia?” Even before Tunisia and Egypt there were amazing Oromo
students’ movement of Fincila Diddaa Gabrumma of 2001-2005  that raged in most Oromian
cities.  However, except for some human
rights organizations, not many people outside the county had heard about
them.   Because TV cameras were absent,
and also because they occurred mostly outside the capital city where diplomatic
corps and international organizations were nonexistent, the vicious suppressions
of Oromo students were not adequately recorded and reported, the world did not
see or hear them, and thus they did not capture the imagination of the
world. 

Even though their impact on Oromo society was
immense, and even if they garnered huge sympathy from Oromos
of all walks of life, beyond becoming a student movement, this movement failed
to bring on board the larger Oromo population to rise up along with it.  Not surprisingly, student movements in other
parts of the country also went missing during this period. Not a single non-Oromo
student organization demonstrated or passed a resolution in support of the
Oromo student movement, and most Ethiopian websites also chose to ignore them.
The heroic Oromo Student Movement was finally crushed after several students
were killed. Lesson learnt was that Oromo student movement not supported by
other sector of the society is powerless against an entrenched repressive
government.

Just when the Oromo student movement was waning down,
the 2005 election and the massacre that followed suit occurred in Addis
Ababa.  The Addis population without any
clear leadership, but inspired by CUD, rose against the TPLF government en
masse.  Here again long before Tunisia
and Egypt, the younger generation of Addis used the new media of the time,
texting, for the first time to mobilize the population. They confronted the
TPLF regime in a heroic manner, but in its usual fascistic manner the
government mobilizing its Agazee force acted swiftly
and cruelly and killed more than 200 individuals in one day in broad day light
in the capital city.  Tens of thousands
were also imprisoned.  Addis Ababa was
very tense for about fifteen days. However, the movement did not persist for
long, and it did not progress to other cities, and it was finally crushed.  Again because these killings did not occur
under the glaring light of TV cameras they did not capture the imagination of
the international community.  However,
because they occurred in the capital city they did get the attention of the
western governments and international organizations, and they did create some
kind of a buzz and temporary rift between TPLF and western governments.

Even though there were some scattered unrests among
Oromo students during the 2005 massacre, by and large the Oromo population was
missing from the 2005 uprising.  Around
this time, Meles in his usual Machiavellian scheme
invited back the OPDO to Addis Ababa from Adama where
he had banished them previously. Around the same period, he also gave an
interview to the media hinting that he was negotiating with the OLF to bring
them back to the legal political process. 
His intention was clearly to dampen the morale of the Addis Ababa
population that rebelled against him and to create a wage between the Oromo and
the Amhara.

Several lessons are learnt from the 2005 failed
uprising.  First and foremost, a movement
confined only to Addis Ababa cannot remove an entrenched government like the
TPLF. Second, an international community cannot be relied upon to remove the
TPLF. They could pass some resolutions and give some warnings, but will
continue to do business as usual with TPLF when things cool down.  And third, to remain in power, the TPLF will
not refrain from taking the risk of instigating a civil war by pitting the Amhara against the Oromo and vice versa. Finally it exposed
the weakness of the TPLF that it is ruling not mainly because of its strength,
but due to the division between forces that are against it.

Political structure in Ethiopia is ethnic based. All
the major nations/ethnic groups, even if controlled by TPLF and its stooges,
have their own administrative areas. Amharas have Amhara State and Oromos have Oromia. Besides, even though Addis Ababa is located in Oromia, because it’s culturally and linguistically by and
large Amhara, it’s counted in the Amhara
column. Unlike Eskinder Nega’s
assertion, Addis Ababa is not a big melting pot where everyone comes and loses
its identity and acquires a distinct Addis Ababan
identity. It’s a city where non Amharas come to Addis
and within a generation lose their own identity and become Amharanized.
Addis Ababa’s identity could be different from other Amhara
identity as the Gojjam Amhara
is different from Shewa Amhara
identity, but it’s all the same Amhara.

Addis Ababa is the center of Ethiopia in many aspects.
It’s a center of the centralized nominally federal government with all its
repressive machines.  It’s the commercial
and financial nerve center of the country. It’s by far the biggest city in the
country with a population of more than three million. The highest concentration
of educated elite and the middle class is found here. Addis Ababa is also the
home of highest concentration of industrial workers, college students and
educated unemployed.  Unemployment is
rampant, life is expensive and the population is very young. It’s a seat of
African Union, embassies, and international organizations.  From the very beginning Addis Ababa hated
TPLF by whom it was also hated. Addis Ababa showed its revenge during the 2005
election when it elected the opposition party members to all the 138 seats, but
one.  TPLF punished it for this act by
killing more than 200 of its inhabitants. 
Still today Addis Ababa and TPLF do not see eye to eye. All in all, most
of the elements necessary for a popular uprising exist in Addis.

But still Addis Ababa is not revolting. Eskinder Nega in his recent
article appears to argue that ethnic consideration is not a factor that is
holding back the Addis Ababans from revolting.  I disagree. 
It’s an elephant in the room. However, even his raising this question
and writing an article about it is a proof that this is something in the back
of the mind of most Addis Ababans, vexing them.  Essential though Addis is, it’s not the whole
country. Starting from the legacy of 2005 experience, most are not convinced
that they can bring change all by themselves without the support from other
part of the country. And they are not at all sure especially if Oromia will follow suit if they start an uprising in
Addis.  It’s understandable where Eskinder is coming from. However, neglecting this fact is
not helpful at all for the popular movement. The better attitude will be to
recognize the problem and try to find the solution.  Unless we recognize it as a problem, we
cannot start thinking about the solution.

Recently two articles have appeared on Gadaa.com
advising Oromos not to get involved with an uprising
that Addis Ababans may launch. The first one
specially argues that because Oromos are not
currently adequately prepared they should not support an uprising in Addis
because this could lead to empowering the Amhara.  This reminds me of a story I heard long time
ago. God appeared to a man and told him that he will give him anything he asked
him, but will also give double of what he gave him to his neighbor.  Instead of trying to benefit from what was
offered to him and ask for something good, the person rather wanted to hurt his
neighbor, and so asked god to cut his foot so that his neighbor’s both feet
will be amputated.   Instead of thinking
“what do I gain from this”, we have unfortunately developed a thinking of “what
does my enemy lose?” 

It is amazing how some people fall in the trap that Meles had set for them. They are singing straight from his
book, and unwittingly accomplishing a role he had set for them. It does not
matter whether you shout colonialism, independent Oromia,
etc. thousands of times each day and dream about free Oromia
every night. What matters is not you wish, but the consequence of your act. As
long as your acts contribute to TPLF’s remaining in power you are serving the
regime.  To remain in power Meles has to divide the Oromo and Amhara.  Therefore, any one, who is serious about
dismantling him, should do everything in his power to mend the relationships
between Oromos and Amhara.
It’s that simple. We should try to undo what enables Meles
to remain on power. Before taking any action, we should seriously think whether
we are doing what Meles wants us to do. 

This is a critical time in world history. Wherever
there is oppression people are motivated and inspired of what happened in
Egypt/Tunisia.  Instead of seizing the
moment and inspire our people to rise up, some of us prognosticate from afar
and advise them the time is not ripe. We tell them, “wait until we get ready”. It so unfortunate that we are trying to pour cold water over the
long simmering tension in Addis Ababa. To say to the people of Addis
Ababa at this specific moment that Oromos will not
support you is the most damaging thing we can ever do. It’s a move that could
kill the uprising before it’s born. Meles could not
have done it better.  A single spark
could set a prairie fire goes an old Chinese saying.  Nobody can predict with any certainty what
could trigger a whole uprising.  A simple
act could be a catalyst and inspire another action which in turn could lead to
a cascade of chain of actions and reactions that no one could foresee the
result.  A motivation from Egypt could
lead to an uprising in Addis Ababa that could engulf the whole region leading
to the downfall of Meles or lead to empowering of the
Oromos. No one knows when the time is ripe. Every
pundit who tried the dangerous game of prediction had failed to tell what could
happen in the future.  Never dampen the
morale of the people. Even if you do not support the uprising of Addis Ababans as a matter of principle, which I find it rather
puzzling,  there
is nothing that Oromos would lose from it and you
should not be against it.

Instead of repeating by rot the now tired formula
for Oromos, these writers who try to give advice how Oromos should act or not act, should do some serious
reflections and come up with new methods of struggle that can lead us to
victory. The current state of our liberation fronts is not something we are
proud of. Therefore, a new thinking is in order. More than anyone else it is Meles and company who are rejoicing in reading these
articles I am alluding to, because it’s exactly what they pray for. This is
what he wants you to do, and by exactly doing what he wants you do, you have become
a puppet in his hands.  You do not have
to love Meles in order to serve him. It’s high time
that people sit down and realize who is currently in power. As long as we stop
being obsessed with this Amhara thing, it is going to
be very difficult to act from high moral ground and coordinate our struggle
with others.

And the second one argues that there is no condition
that may lead to an Egypt type of revolt in Ethiopia and advises the Oromos rather to follow the Southern Sudan model. He
further argues that the Egypt type of popular uprising could occur only in one
nation/state and could not occur in the case of Oromia
where the system is imposed from outside. He is saying you can revolt against
your own rulers, but not against a foreign occupier.  I do not know if this writer had heard about
India or many other countries that conducted anti-colonial urban uprising. He
also offers his advice that Oromos should follow the
Southern Sudan model without indicating that the South Sudanese had been very
flexible in their method of struggle including up to working within the system
and power sharing.  

A responsible individual serious about the misery
our people are facing today in the hands of Meles
should not be engrossed in this false dichotomy between the Egypt or the Southern Sudan way. 
At the time when we are trying to inspire a popular uprising à la Egypt,
to advocate only for Southern Sudan way, is nothing more than putting cold
water on a discontent about to catch fire. 
I am not saying Ethiopia is Egypt. I am simply saying we need Egypt for
its inspirational effect. Do not dampen the morale of the people about to rebel
by dabbling in unnecessary theoretical sophistry.   We should not transport our lack of
imagination on the people. As indicated above, we do not know where a spark set
in Addis could take us. The rich matrix of possibility and consequence of life
is beyond our pedantic thinking. We should rather send a firm and clear signal
to the Addis Ababans that if they revolt that we Oromos will be right there with them. 

I went to a great length above just to score one
essential point.  The greatest obstacle
for Egypt type of uprising to take place in Ethiopia is the animosity that TPLF
is fanning between the Oromo and Amhara. The fear is
not that these two groups will massacre each other in the street of Addis
Ababa. The fear is that when and if the Amharas
revolt the Oromos will not support them and vice
versa.  This is the Achilles hill of the
anti TPLF popular resistance.  This
vulnerability should be overcome for the popular  uprising to occur or have the intended
effect.  This is the time when the
political leaders, elites, in fact all concerned about the welfare of our people, of every camp from every sector try our best to
resolve this intricate problem in a very creative way. Egypt should inspire us
to come together and fight our common repressive regime.  This is an opportune moment, but while we are
indulging in unnecessary squabbles, we are running out of time. 

Of course nobody is suggesting Ethiopia is exactly
like Egypt. Each country is obviously unique in its own way.  On a general level or in some superficial way
there are stark similarities that everyone who commented on the possibility of
rebellion in Ethiopia had pointed out. 
Both countries are ruled by despots for many, many years, and there are
genuine grievances in both countries crying to be addressed. 

It’s true that the Ethiopian army is not a national
army in the true sense of the word.  All
the top echelon is totally manned by Tigreans who we
assume will be loyal to Meles to the end. It’s true
that without the role that the military played in Egypt and Tunisia the
uprising would not have been easily successful. 
However, in Bahrain and Yemen the popular uprising registered important
victories in spite  of
the army being staunchly behind the ruling government.  In Libya even though the result is not clear,
similar occurrence are happening.  The
moral of the story is that, yes having the army totally behind the government
makes popular uprising to be extremely difficult, but it’s not an
insurmountable obstacle.  It should also
be noted that over the time the composition of the TPLF army is changing.  Even if still today the top brass are Tigreans, the privates and noncommissioned officers come
from all sectors of the country.  If
popular uprising could persist for a prolonged period of time, there is no
reason why this section of the army will not side with the people.  Here comes into mind what some brave Oromo
generals and soldiers did few years ago. 
In addition the existence of Siye et al., in
the opposition camp, could also even divide the Tigrean
dominated army.  However, for all this to
happen the uprising should not be an event of few days. To have an effect and
to spread to all sectors of the society it has be conducted over an extended
period of time.

Some commentators make distinction between
pro-western governments and others in the way they dealt with rebellions in
their respective countries.  They
indicate that pro-western governments were constrained in dealing harshly with
the opposition due to pressure they faced from US and European countries, and
therefore rebellions in those countries because successful.  It’s very hard to place the TPLF government
in either camp.  Even though Ethiopia
more than any country is reliant on foreign nations’ largesse, it’s not
accountable to their judgment. Meles parrots the
western words but mimics the deeds of Stalin and Mao, his heroes. Due to the
false image and importance it has created for itself as a result of the Somali
crisis and the threat of terrorism around this region, TPLF has managed not to
be responsive to external demands.  It is
Egypt and Libya combined together. Therefore, it may be freer than Mubarak’s
regime to harshly deal with the uprising. However, it’s not as free as Libya
because it has a lot to lose if it crosses the boundary of freedom the west has
set for it. 

Given the interest popular uprising had generated in
today’s world, it will be extremely difficult for the TPLF to conduct the
massacre as before behind closed doors. This time the world will be watching.
The moment the news of uprising is indicated, Al-Jazeera and CNN will be there
the next morning.  This could to some
extent constrain the TPLF from being repressive as before.  Meles’s instinct is
to act like Sadam Hussein and Gadffi,
and even use fighter jets against the people he rules, but the question is,
could he take the chance of alienating the west who this time, if the killing
is done over the TV, will be forced to cut their aid?  This is anybody’s guess, but one thing for
sure is, the international situation is much better conducive now.

Before I wind down, let me ask this. Where are the
political parties? Where are the liberation fronts?  All of them are missing in action. Or the
better question is, who needs them when the people can
liberate themselves without them. Or even the better question is, isn’t their
absence a good thing? The legal opposition organizations in Ethiopia appear to
have exhausted their importance to the people. 
Because they are so conspicuously identified by the security forces,
they are the first to be the casualty of any uprising .
They know this. Therefore, some have already started to avow their opposition
to the Egypt type of rebellion in Ethiopia. Even if such an uprising starts, to
save their lives, they will be the first to try to compromise with the TPLF to
stop the uprising.  They have started to
talk the language of the constitution as if there is a valid and legitimate
constitution in Ethiopia.  Therefore, the
uprising should be conducted outside the control of the legal opposition.  The liberation fronts and other opposition
groups that are considered illegal by the TPLF should also refrain from playing
active roles if an uprising occurred. 
Their involvement will only give the TPLF a pretext to use more deadly
repression. We see how the TPLF always tries to tie every grievance raised in Oromia to OLF so that it could categorize it as terrorism
and justify its repression.

Even though the uprising in Egypt appeared to be
very spontaneous, at the core of it were very much dedicated young
professionals who meticulously prepared and planned many things behind the
scene. This is one of the major lessons that the Oromian/Ethiopian
youth must take from the Egypt uprising. 
Study what they did, learn from them, adopted it to the concrete
situation back home. It’s time to start getting ready. Do not expect the
diaspora will come and liberate you. Take your fate into your hands, and decide
when you are ready.  Let no one tell you
the time is not ripe!

—

The writer can be reached at [email protected]