Empires don’t just fall suddenly, it’s a gradual process. A
classic example is the “The fall of Roman Empire”, where the phrase
itself become part of the conventional parlance to denote the occurrence of
such event. The Romans did not wake up one day to find their Empire gone.  Notwithstanding the ongoing debate over
the exact causes of the decline and later the demise of the Roman Empire, there
is a definite consensus among historians on some of the causal factors. Among
them, the Government was running out of money; the people had to pay very high
taxes; Government incompetence and corruption became unsustainable; the rich
were given grants of money and land which made them richer while the poor got
poorer; there was not enough money to pay for the army.

Surprisingly enough, these factors are still relevant today to explain
the collapse of regimes that seems to be more frequent recently; in fact the
parallel with the current situation in Ethiopia is quite striking.

These are not the only reasons. An explosive mix of high population
growth, leading to a “youth bulge”, urbanization, jobless growth and
the rapid expansion of education have created what sociologists call “the
restless generation.”

Then, there’s the technology; a social media revolution has made it
possible to exchange ideas but also to evaluate one’s own position in the
world. Borders between countries are increasingly blurred in this Internet age;
people are no longer isolated from world events, simply put “they know
what they are missing”.

In the case of Ethiopia the tell-tale signs are even more compelling
when we consider the leaked information coming from the inner circle of EPRDF.  It’s fair to assume that
information leakage is, at the minimum, the first sign of discontent within an
organization, and the beginning of a crack from within.

First came the revelation of the mysterious
death of Major General Hayelom Araya. Although he
died nearly 15 years ago, the circumstances of his death remained unclear until
now.  He was a leading member of EPRDF
and at least for most members and sympathizers of the organization he was a war
hero. The plot to kill him reads right out of a Hollywood script. Complete with
scene of collision with foreign spies but with an added twist from The
Godfather, where the Mafia Boss (Meles) makes an
appearance to grieve the fallen enemy – Meles was
reportedly seen shedding some crocodile tears at the funeral.  Indeed, an Oscar-worthy performance,
Machiavelli would have been very proud with such cunning duplicity.

Then came the story of a fellow by the name of
Mekonen Zelelew.  He was a former EPRDF combatant and
cadre and, allegedly, the closest confidant of Azeb Mesfin, Meles’s maligned
and vilified wife. Mekonen’s story is rich with
drama of bitter family feud, crimes, brutality and torture committed by the
highest echelon of power. All this has to be confirmed of course. After all
even brutal dictators deserve their day in court. There is, however an ominous
warning to those who continue to support EPRDF: the ship is sinking and the
rats (no pun intended) are starting to jump.

With that being said, my main purpose here is not to draw a list of EPRDF’s
crimes, which we all know or have suspected all along, but rather to focus our
attention to the changes that are sure to come. So far all our focus and energy
have been expended in regime change and very little in preparing ourselves for
what is to come. To suggest that everything will be fine and dandy once the EPRDF
regime is gone is not only simplistic, but utterly irresponsible, if not
dangerous. 

The seeds of hatred and fear have been planted deep in our country.
Dictators are most dangerous at the end of their reign. Meles
and his cohorts will do and resort to anything to cling to power. That includes
harvesting hatred to unleash havoc all over the country. The now defunct
Gaddafi regime and the embattled regimes in Yemen and Syria are very good
examples. Despite the prevailing apprehension; however, there is nothing
inevitable. What we need is a two-prong strategic plan to organize a civil
resistance movement as well as a  
proactive action leading to an alliance across the political divide to
see us through the transition period and avoid a power vacuum.

Civil resistance: a determining factor for a successful civil resistance
movement is the ability of the organizers to anticipate the possible action the
regime will take and plan and execute successive tactics to break it and
strengthen the movement towards unity. Meles has used
the ethnic card in the past and will do so again. We saw in the 2005 elections
where in a disparate bid to avoid humiliating defeat the regime raised the
specter of genocide in Rwanda and tried to convince Tigreans
about the possible retribution they will face, if they don’t support him.
A well coordinated and unrelenting national campaign
is required not only to counter the act the regime divisive action, but also to
assuage the fear of any group about the post EPRDF era. In addition a
deliberate and an intensive campaign to delink the military from the regime
should be part of the main strategy of the civil resistance movement. We have
to do away with the erroneous assumptions that the military will remain loyal
to the end to protect the regime. As we saw in other country and most recently
in the Arab Spring uprising, the military will most likely switch sides based
on survival instinct and the potential outcome of the movement rather than
solely on ethnic or political loyalty. Having said this, however, there will be
some element within the military that will choose to remain loyal to the end.
Particularly those in the security apparatus who have been involved in gross
atrocities might not be able to see their survival beyond that of the regime.
However, in spite of this, the main objective of the civil resistance movement
should be to maximize as much as possible the defection rate of the military,
hence weaken the regime’s means of coercion.

Transition plan: I cannot emphasize enough the urgent need of result
oriented dialogue in order to plan for the all-important transitional period.
It’s an important part of the struggle not only to maximize an orderly
transition but also to build an atmosphere of mutual trust and cooperation to
facilitate what will be an inclusive, but long and tiresome bargaining to form
a truly representative government. Minimum consensus must be arrived soon on
issues such as: maintaining law and order, especially during a transition
period;  establishing an independent
civil service; selecting constitution drafting committee;  establishing a transitional justice
system to address human right violations; 
integrating and restructuring the military to make it loyal to the state
and less subject to regional, ethnic, or personal interests;  enacting preliminary power sharing
formula among various level of government. Potentially acrimonious issues can
be dealt with at later time as part of the political
continuum. The above list is neither comprehensive nor is in any meaningful
order, but could be a good starting point nonetheless.  In fact, the list and order should be
part of the negotiation and hopefully it will be flexible enough to adapt to
the changing situation. My aim here is rather modest, although there is a
conscious effort on my part to elicit debate and discussion along the way. Furthermore,
I am aware that reaching even a minimum consensus can be a delicate task
requiring time and a great deal of sensitivity, but the unappealing alternative
is a much more ominous turn of events.

The political divide among competing nationalities and interest groups
with contradictory assessment of the past as well as diverging views of the
future might seem so much more pronounced recently. This is due in part because
the current regime practices open discrimination and publicly promotes communal
hostility. On the other hand, looked in the context of contemporary Ethiopia’s
politics and the fast-paced global change, it is also the result of the
inevitable interplay between change and socio-political awareness. Overcoming these
conditional challenges is indeed the paramount issues facing the opposition
today. And the only way to overcome it is through an intensive campaign on none
violent tactics and a carefully planned civil resistant action complemented by
increased public and political awareness encompassing both the civilian and the
military population.

Fortunately, there are encouraging signs underway (at least within the
opposition camp) of renewed sense of respect and accommodation both inside and
outside the country. It should be nurtured and further solidified to create a
new culture of tolerance and a pragmatic political discourse.

The issues we face are more complex than ever. It would be too simple
to point a finger solely at the current regime in Ethiopia. In reality there
are many forces at work. Chief among them is our inability to move beyond
partisan and identity politics (see my commentary ‘The Fallacy of
Identity Politics’). Viewing democracy as a static attainment is an
inflexible paradigm that encourages dogmatic positions, hence a polarized
debate. In contrast democracy, as deliberative politics, will result in more
pragmatic and creative solutions

If we accept the concept of democracy as an iterative process of
working toward ever greater degree of fairness and justice, then our success in
attaining it should be measured not only by what we agree on and how we agree
on, but also by what we agree to disagree along the continuum.

—

The writer, a resident of Ottawa, Canada, can be reached at [email protected]