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He said:
“The rumors of war are all hype in the international media. We will absolutely not go to war with Eritrea. We have nothing to gain from war. We will not go to war with Eritrea, no matter what. The only time we will respond is if there is a full-scale invasion of our territory. Let me stress again. We are not saying ‘We are not going to shoot first.’ We are going beyond that. We are saying, ‘we are not going to shoot even if Eritrea shoots first so long as Eritrea does not engage in full scale invasion of our territory.’”
Has the Lord of War become the Prince of Peace? What a difference a year makes? Last December, Meles was trigger-happy and ready to ride shotgun in Somalia, and wipe out the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and their Al-Qaeda droids. He complained the ICU was an extremist Islamist power with ties to global Jihad and Al-Qaeda. He said the ICU was preparing to install a Taliban-style regime in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Meles warned, can not stand by idly as thousands of Al Shabaab (militant youth movement of the ICU) and Al Qaeda fighters sharpened their long knives to attack it. He sounded the bugle for a preemptive (preventive) war against an invisible enemy. He pushed his parliament to declare that “the Islamic Courts group have presented clear and present danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia.”
Today, there is a conspicuous “enemy” amassing troops on the border, and Meles renounces war. In his eyes, the Eritrean troops amassed on the border do not “present clear and present danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia.” And as opposed to his action in Somalia, there will be no “preemptive war” in Eritrea. Meles says he will not shoot back even if the Eritreans shoot first. He did not even bother to have a “debate” on the issue in his rubber-stamp parliament. He decided on his own that any attack short of a “full scale invasion” by Eritrea will not be defended.
Has “Meles the Hawk” become “Meles the Dove”? But it is not just his newfound “dovishness” that is flabbergasting. His uncompromising words of appeasement suggest that he is determined to avert another “war” with his Eritrean comrades-in-arms. He has become a man of peace who will turn the other cheek. The remark, “We will absolutely not go to war with Eritrea, no matter what!” sounds Gandhian, almost.
But the anticipated “full scale invasion” by Eritrea appears to have already taken place over the past year, if we are to believe Meles’ accusatory rhetoric. He has been claiming that Eritrea is arming, training and supporting the OLF, ONLF and any number of other dissident groups, as well as Somali insurgents, who have launched a “full scale invasion” of Ethiopia, or attacked Ethiopian troops. What other signs of a “full scale invasion” need to be seen to know it is time to defend? But we will leave that for another day.
Though there are many reasons why Meles will not go to war with Eritrea, a few of them are:
- He is bogged down in Somalia. He can not afford another war given the sheer cost of his existing military commitments in Somalia, and other parts of the country. The resurgence of the Islamist forces in Somalia means Meles would keep the army in Somalia for as long as it takes. Nor are African peacekeeping forces willing to jump into the Somali inferno and replace Meles. These conditions would bar him from opening another war front with Eritrea. That is why he “stresses” the precondition of a “full scale invasion” for a response to Eritrean aggression. He is hoping against hope that if such an invasion should occur, the natural patriotism and national pride will impel the Ethiopian people to fight.
- Eritrea is no Somalia. Meles’ ascent to power in Ethiopia dates back to the mid-70s when he saw an opportunity of freeing Eritrea from what he and his comrades assert as the “colonial rule of Ethiopia.” They found their niche in the so-called Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which they turned into a fighting machine until they controlled Addis and Asmara in 1991. As recently as a few months back, Meles and Sebhat Nega, the latter being a senior TPLF leader, vowed that they wouldn’t see with indifference if Eritrea comes under attack. They said they would defend Eritrean independence from any future attack that may originate in Ethiopia. What Meles sees as the greatest threat to Eritrean sovereignty is if Ethiopia slips into the hands of Ethiopians, and not if Eritrea agonizes in the hands of Isaias Afwerki.
- Both Meles and Isaias thrive in an environment of conflict. They badly need the no-war-no-peace situation. Both will keep up their combative rhetoric to a fever pitch hoping to dupe and scare the Ethiopian people and the international community. But it looks like no one is buying the diversionary propaganda campaign and saber-rattling which is calculated to take the Ethiopian peoples’ and the world’s eyes from the massive human rights violations and lawlessness in the country, and the disastrous Somali misadventure.
To sum up, some naively say that Meles will “go to war with Eritrea” and replace Isaias with a puppet regime while snagging an outlet to the sea for Ethiopia. Meles will then ride victorious into the sunset clad in glory. That is wishful thinking. The fact is that Meles and Isaias are like Siamese twins. The survival of one depends on the survival of the other. War will only loosen their precarious hold on power; more likely, war may also serve as a catalyst for their demise. Meles will go to war with Eritrea only if he thinks that his personal power in and around Arat Kilo is threatened. Until then, he will keep us entertained with the same old song and dance about war and the absence of peace with Eritrea.