I have previously written about the scenarios under which Meles leaves power and what happens when his administration falls. The objective of those write-ups was purely to help us think about what we shall have bought ourselves when Meles leaves the scene! Frankly, in spite of tackling this subject from many angles, I don’t think my message has gotten through to most of our compatriots, hence, my further attempt at this critical time, if for nothing else, just to keep a clear conscience!
I will expand on some of the points listed above, and I am sure anybody reading this will be able to add many more points to this list.
The manner of Meles departure: If Meles succumbs to pressures from within and without the country and opens up the political space within which the opposition can participate, and create an independent judiciary and an independent electoral board, in addition to an unfettered international observance of the next elections, then Ethiopia will be back on the track to democracy as it was prior to the 2005 election! Sounds good? But in order for the country to benefit from such an election there has to be a mechanism of ensuring that Meles or his administration will have no power over the peoples’ vote and that there must be a mechanism to ensure that he vacates the office of PM on a predetermined schedule. Meles will not take this path willingly, and if he has to take it, then he will need guarantees of his safety and the safety of his followers once he leaves office!
The other alternative is for Meles, under the above mentioned scenario, to agree to the dissolution of his administration, and set up an administration of national unity in which all the opposition parties and the civil society will participate under the supervision of the international community instrument. The purpose of such an organization would be to have a non-partisan administration which will govern democratically while the system of democratic governance is being crafted with the participation of the population. After a pre-determined period such an administration will give way to a democratically elected administration. Such a mechanism will ensure participation of the entire country in the formation of their democracy; will ensure safety from persecution of those in power today; and protection of the sovereignty of Ethiopia. This would be the best scenario, and one everybody should be demanding.
If Meles refuses to open up the political space or stop the harassment of the political opponents, the divided nation, the hostile neighbors, and the dissatisfied military may all turn against him and force him out of power. Such a scenario may end up creating the situation similar to the fall of Mengistu’s military regime and a power vacuum will be created which will be filled up hastily, and such a mechanism provides a recipe for yet another dictatorship!
The level of damage caused by the dictator: In his 18 years of governing Ethiopia, Meles has caused damages in all imaginable ways. The worst damages are in the sphere of inter-ethnic relationships, inter-denominational relationships, inter-regional relationships, hostility with the neighboring countries, and economic hardship. These are the damages which will not be repaired by the mere departure of Meles and his regime – in fact the risk of exacerbation is real! A trust-building process that ensures understanding by all sectors of the population about Meles’ objectives of causing so much division among our peoples is crucial NOW, and cannot wait until Meles’ departure, to minimize the damage. That is why I have insisted and continue to insist on a non-partisan movement which pulls all Ethiopians together to craft way forward now. Failure to do so will lead to a “surprise” encounter between the next “democratic” leader of Ethiopia and the disaffected section of the population, and sadly the continued erosion of trust between administration and the country.
Unity among the population: Today there is a surge of unity in the condemnation of Meles! There appears to be a surge in the support for some political organizations. But Meles’ departure will be just one event – remember the quiet departure of Mengistu from Ethiopia early in 1991? Remember the surge of support for COEDF when Meles came to power? Unity is not just something to be imagined, it involves action in trust-building, it involves reassurance to people who have been deprived, it involves their unreserved participation in the process of nation-building!
Solidarity of politicians in the effort to build a democratic culture in their country: There is a sense of optimism that Meles’ days may be over soon! This is thanks to Meles’ arrogance and lack of vision, not because of anything smart or strategic on the part of his opponents! There is a sector of the opposition movement which is currently riding the crest of euphoria, not because of any meaningful achievement on its part, but because of unintended publicity thanks to the Meles’ dictatorial blunder-bus! But if the opposition parties are really concerned about our Motherland, they should urgently form a coordinating committee, working hand-in-hand with civic organizations to craft an approach that will reassure all Ethiopians and the international community that Ethiopia’s future will be secure after Meles’ departure! I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE OF SUCH A COMMITMENT TO ETHIOPIA BY THOSE WHO ARE HOB-NOBBING THE GLOBE AS AMBASSADORS FOR THE EMANCIPATION OF ETHIOPIA! I look at these people and see unending pain for Ethiopia!
Knowledge of, and experience in good governance: Democracy is a way of life, a culture, one which is foreign to Ethiopia. To exercise a democratic way of life, the nation must adopt that culture! Just voting in an election is not enough to make a country democratic – Hamas won an election in Palestine; Hezbolah won elections in Lebanon; even Kim Jung Il won elections in North Korea! No, just having internationally supervised elections is not enough for democracy! Thus, to give Ethiopia true democracy and all that goes with it, we must step back from the drive to be the next leader of Ethiopia, and focus in founding democratic culture in Ethiopia! Once the power is in the hands of knowledgeable and responsible citizenry, then go ask for the vote! Winning in that situation will be meaningful and sweat! Bribing people with a kilogram of sugar, and promising things they don’t understand, is exploitation and unconscionable!
Foreign influence: When President of Obama won the election last November, most of us must have felt Ethiopia had elected a new President! That is how much confidence and expectation we have put in this President; it is a sign of our desperation and also dissatisfaction with the previous administrations! But President Obama’s #1 duty is to protect the interest of the United States! In order for President Obama to protect the US interest in Ethiopia, he has to ensure that nothing he does compromises the security and integrity of Ethiopia! He may have several means of pressuring Meles out of office, but if that leads to disorder and lawlessness in the country, then his actions will not have served the interests of either the US or Ethiopia! If, on the other hand, Ethiopians stand together in Solidarity and present him with a credible program that ensures security, prosperity and democracy in Ethiopia, and he ignored them, then he would have shirked his responsibility of ensuring peace and stability in Ethiopia, a situation which would have been in the interest of both Ethiopia and the United States of America.
