Just before the May 2005 elections, the Woyane rule seemed invincible. But in such a short time because of the popular struggle, the regime which appeared to be strong and confident is now rocked to its core. Though what has been achieved so far is not easy by any standard, we need to strengthen the struggle. The struggle should be sustained and organized. Sustained and organized struggle is important for an orderly and peaceful transition.
In addition to putting pressure on the Meles regime to release the political prisoners and open political dialogue, it is also high time to broaden the agenda of the opposition to the rather immediate task of peaceful and democratic transition. All Ethiopian opposition forces within the country and outside should create forums to deliberate about challenges of the transition to the post-Woyane era. To break a discussion on the post-Meles Ethiopia, I like to share my thoughts about the role of the army in the ongoing process of transition.
The Woyane regime which invested so much in controlling the Ethiopian people through webs of security and intelligence apparatus and government bureaucracy has now become completely dependent upon the brute force of the Agazi ethnic militia and the Federal Police. The commanders of the army have so far lost all the opportunities to stand with the people. They also stained the name and honor of the army. Nevertheless, as insiders to the army note a significant number of the officer corps within the army is opposed to the actions of the Agazi and the routine usage of the army to quell peaceful dissent. Even if the army looks monolithic and firmly under the control of the Woyane from the outside, there is growing dissent within the army. The repeated defections of the members of the Ethiopian Air Force testify the growing anxiety within the army. One may wonder why the army allowed itself to be used as an instrument to slaughter young men and women by the Woyane. This is mainly because of Woyane’s use of ethnicity and patronage to divide the army. The Woyane also carefully installs men loyal to itself on important positions starting from logistics to operations. In contravention to international norms of military science, military officers higher in rank are in many cases accountable to their junior Woyane loyalists. The other important reason which explains the failure of the army to stand with the people is the lack of effective organizational and mobilization work by the opposition forces within the army. There is no communication infrastructure between the officers of the army and the opposition parties. Moreover, officers who wish to stand with the army could not communicate among themselves. The opposition has not so far done much within the army. There is heightened suspicion within the army because of pervasive spying and merciless action on those who are suspected of dissent. The tight control of the Woyane on the army is, however, waning. This is particularly because of the repeated usage of the army in different parts of the country to crush peaceful protests. The natural question of why my own sisters and brothers are opposing this government is slowly but surely creeping into the ranks of the military.
There are three important scenarios for the army in the process of Ethiopian transition into the post-Woyane order.
Scenario One: Cessation of using the army to crush dissent and political dialogue
The first scenario is a rather optimistic but near very difficult to achieve. In this scenario, the commanders of the army will decide not to take part in crushing peaceful disobedience of the Ethiopian people and ask the political leadership, i.e. the Woyane to open political dialogue with all opposition parties. This means the army retrenches itself from being used as instrument of the regime to crush its political opponents. This scenario is very difficult to attain because of the nature of the army. The prevalence of such a scenario could be a major step forward for maintaining peace and stability in the country and also saves the country from unnecessary bloodshed. Such a scenario seems impossible. It has, however, happened in different countries which suffered from tyranny. People’s power which defeated the tyrannical rule of F. Marcos in February 1986 in the Philippines was made possible because of the refusal of the army to fire on peaceful protestors. Who thought that people who were not armed would eventually defeat the brutal regime of Marcos which lined up its tanks in the streets of Manila? The Philippine army at long last decided to side with the people. By siding with the people it saved the country and itself.. All opposition parties and peace loving peoples should seek to underline to the members of the army that the country’s and their interest will be best served by if the army helps the realization of the aspiration the Ethiopian peoples for equality and justice.
Scenario Two: coup d’etat by Woyane loyalists
The continued popular resistance is creating anxiety among groups which are closely associated with the Woyane. These groups feel that it is only the Woyane which could protect their business, political and economic interests. It is an open secret that within the ranks of the Woyane Meles is castigated for the strengthening of the opposition by providing them some opportunities to campaign in the May 2005 elections. In fact the hard-line which Mr. Meles followed on the detained opposition leaders is partly to satisfy his critics within his constituency of support. The likelihood of this scenario would be also very high if another round of war breaks out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. No one, even ardent advocates of the Woyane regime would be willing to go to another war against Eritrea under Mr. Meles’s leadership. This is because of Meles’s treasonous acts during the war and the fiasco surrounding Badme which still hangs high among Tigrean nationalists. What happens if there is a coup against Meles? The coup makers might bring back the former leaders of the TPLF to the helm of leadership and seek ways to legitimize their rule by forging a sham broad based government. Alternately, the coup makers might establish a military rule. Any regime which is installed by a coup with the intention of protecting the riches of the Woyane circle cannot withstand the popular resistance. If the leaders of the coup eventually realize that the only way out from the crisis is national reconciliation and democratization, there could be a possibility for a peaceful and orderly transition. In the contrary, if the coup makers seek to protect the interests of the Woyane group and try to liquidate opposition, there would be widespread violence and bloodshed. Any coup, however, speeds up the process of transition to a post-Meles Ethiopia
Scenario Three: disintegration of the army
The continued popular resistance and defiance will certainly put pressure on the army. The more the army is used to quell peaceful dissent, the more it would become unstable inside. The more blood the army spills, the more opposition within the army. What makes this scenario possible? The tight control that the Woyane has on the army might make collective action difficult. In addition to the problem of collective action, the worsening economic condition will make the salary and benefits that the Woyane provide to the army less attractive. Some of the early signs which were exhibited since June 2005 will be strengthened. More defections to neighboring countries and armed resistance movements like the OLF and EPF. In this scenario there will be more insubordination and army mutinies here and there. Economic demands which the Woyane regime cannot accommodate will be put forward by units of the armed forces. This is obviously a very dangerous scenario which should be avoided. It would threaten peace and security. It may even lead to a civil war. As the army which the Woyane built is effectively an ethnic militia, the army could disintegrate and the members of the army may shoot at each other.
Considering the different but difficult scenarios that might await the army in the transition towards a post-Woyane Ethiopia, all opposition forces should devise important strategies which could help the army to play a positive role in the process of the transition which is already started. It is not enough to make calls to the army not to kill innocent civilians. It is high time to make the army a positive force of change. To this end it is necessary to penetrate the army and find officers and soldiers who are friendly to the people. Strengthen the propaganda work on the army using whatever possible means of communication. This is an important challenge for all opposition forces and those who seek a better Ethiopia in the future.
