Ethiopia and the next revolution

July 31, 2013

Exactly a
year ago, ESAT declared the death of Meles Zenawi. That was the most important breaking news in the
last two decades. TPLF went into frenzy to bury the news under a barrage of counter-propaganda.
Bereket Simon went on ETV to curse ESAT and reassure
the nation that the “great leader” would return intact. The
propaganda chief and his foot soldiers had already kept the local media extremely
busy with so many bizarre stories.

The zeal
to bury the truth was too evident to miss. But the spin and misinformation
campaign got out of control beyond anyone could have imagined.  Addis
Fortune, Addis Admas, Reporter, ETV, Walta…had all different versions of the same
story. All of them said Meles was alive and kicking
and was on his way back to his throne.  

The lies
were too fast to catch. Addis Admas, which has a bad habit of publishing
fabrications, told us that Meles was working from the
palace. Addis Fortune famously
splashed its front page with a memorable headline: “Meles
back in town.” But it was ESAT that accurately told the story that truly
mattered. And then, Meles finally returned home in a
coffin….It was a watershed moment for Ethiopia after the great demise of
the late tyrant.  

Frenzy attacks

After suffering
for 21 years under the brutal grip and bouts of Meles
Zenawi, Ethiopians had to witness a political
melodrama.  The plot was twisted,
the lies were sinister, the propaganda was shameless and the mass hysteria,
carefully planned for weeks, was one of the worst in the world. Ethiopians were
told to come out and shed their tears to bury the “great leader”
who was feeding them lies, kicking, torturing and killing their children and nephews
with tyrannical ruthlessness. 

As the
lead investigator to verify the death of the despot, I was focused on a leak
from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG). Despite conflicting
rumors, it was the most compelling and verifiable information one could get
about the death of the despot at St. Luc University Hospital in Brussels,
Belgium.

A few
hours after ESAT’s breaking news on July 30, 2012, I published the story
online, which was deliberately titled, “Meles Zenawi is dead”. The TPLF camp launched more savage
campaigns, death threats, defamation and saber rattling. Tigrai
Online took the lead in the frenzy attacks.

‘Dilwonberu Nega’, a certain
TPLF scribbler and apologist, doodled and scribbled a lengthy piece full of
insults on Tigrai Online.  “So Abebe
“The foolish heart” and the
gang of cowboy journalists at ESAT came up with a ‘brilliant’ idea
of hoodwinking the international community by concocting a “Breaking
News” on the “death of Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi…. ESAT’s future, as a result of
its totally irresponsible act of concocting the death of Prime Minister Melees
Sinai, is now vulnerable to a quick and painful death as people who have been
contributing money to ESAT are bound to ask a justifiable question: Are they or
Ethiopia getting value for their money? The answer is a big NO.”

While the foolhardy
TPLF and its puppets are still confused and depressed, ESAT and the movements
for change are gaining ground and building momentum. TPLF is still unsure of its
future one year after the demise of the captain of the ship destined for a tragic
wreck.  

ICG’s
report, “Ethiopia after Meles”, was
written in July 2012 but the release had to be delayed until the official
announcement. After exhaustive planning, TPLF decided to reveal its top secret
that it could no longer keep. It admitted that the tyrant was dead on August 20,
2012, over five weeks after his demise. ICG released its analytic report the
next day. We were vindicated again.

Cracking pyramid

 ICG warned that the one-man regime,
without its creator, could be unraveling sooner rather than later. “For
more than two decades, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi managed Ethiopia’s political, ethnic and
religious divides and adroitly kept the TFPL and EPRDF factions under tight control
by concentrating power, gradually closing political space and stifling any
dissent. His death poses serious risks to the ruling party’s
tenure,” the report said.

ICG’s
prediction was on target that reflects the current reality. “Deprived of
its epicenter [Meles], the regime will find it very
difficult to create a new centre of gravity. In the
short-term, a TPLF-dominated transition will produce a weaker regime that
probably will have to rely increasingly on repression to manage growing
unrest.”

Meles Zenawi was
supposed to last longer. In a 2002 article, “Ethiopia Proves There Can Be
Life after Death,” British journalist Jonathan Dimbleby
had even quoted him as saying: “Africa’s downfall has always been the cult
of the personality. And their names always seem to begin with M. We’ve had
Mobutu and Mengistu and I’m not going to add Meles to the list.” Meles,
who built a personality cult still in place, envied lifetime dictators and wanted
to outlive Mugabe, Mengistu or Mubarak. 

The Meles regime was built like a pyramid to serve him. He had created
a monolithic power structure. On top of the highly corrupted ethno-power pyramid
sat the emperor himself followed by his most trusted lieutenants. At the very
bottom of the pyramid, the masses shouldered the whole brunt and weight of the
top-down tyranny. It was a system designed to crush and oppress the multitude
at the very bottom of the pyramid.  

The man on
top of the pyramid is no longer there. 
Now this system built to serve the strongman is cracking and unraveling
slowly. The reasons are not complex. In reality, no one has replaced Meles Zenawi. No one has his
power and privilege. No one has his skills to rule with brute decisiveness and
Machiavellian tricks. Everyone assembled in the power structure is the
tyrant’s loyalist. No one can hold the cracking pyramid as much as he did….
After all, Meles Zenawi was
the supreme ruler, a kind of superglue that held together the complex ethno-political
structure. Without the superglue, the pyramid cannot survive long enough.

Crown without sword

The
pro-TPLF Ethiopian Reporter has recently admitted that Hailemariam
Desalegn can only dream of succeeding Meles. It declared that the puppet has been given a crown without
the sword.  Just a few weeks into power,
we were told that Hailemariam was only part of a new
“collective leadership” scheme. He was awarded three deputies, two
figure heads and a real one. The Reporter grievingly repeated what every ordinary
citizen has been saying all along. Hailemariam the
puppet is just a pawn in the game.

So how can
the ship facing internal and external pressures navigate itself out of storm
without wrecking itself? The regime may implode or even explode without
applying Zenaw’s Machiavellian calculus that
sustained it for over two decades. The trouble is only Meles
could have done it cunningly. That is why they are vowing to keep his
“visions” alive. His photos hanging all over the walls, the dead
tyrant’s ghost is more powerful than Hailemariam
and the rest of the gang called the “cabinet”.     

The man
poised to play Meles, Debretsion
Gebremichael, TPLF’s spymaster and pseudo-intellectual,
has more leverages than the three TPLF puppets, i.e. Hailemariam,
Muktar Kedir and Demeke Mekonnen, added together. He
is among the privileged and entitled TPLF ruling elite. The three have no power
base and leverages. They are outsiders. Unlike Debretsion,
and the other TPLF bigwigs moving the system from behind the curtains, they only
serve as bellboys whose main duties are to create the illusion of diversity and
a semblance of power sharing within EPRDF’s cheap ethnic goulash. 

Debretsion is “Deputy” Prime
Minister in charge of economy and finance. He is the Deputy Chairman of the
TPLF. He is Minister of Information and Communication Technology. He is board
chairman of the EthioTelecom and the Ethiopia
Electric Power Corp., both plagued by unbridled corruption. Most importantly,
he controls the security apparatus.

 With a bogus PhD from a controversial online
university called Capella, Debretsion
has significant leverages of power. The security apparatus directly reports to
him instead of the “Prime Minister.” And yet, he lacks the charisma
and leadership skills needed to hold such a highly monolithic system that has
not yet been reconstructed after the demise of its undisputed architect. Even
if he is in charge of the telecommunication service, those who know well say
that Debretsion doesn’t have telephone skills
let alone speaking like a ruler. As a spymaster cunningly eavesdropping
the secrets of the other game players, he is widely feared but not trusted.  

Bereket Simon, who played a key role in
organizing the mass hysteria and creating the illusion of the “great
leader”, was widely believed to be one of the contenders for power. As
the propaganda chief, he was practically the most visible face of the regime.
In a surprising move, he was banished into oblivion with a ministerial position
without portfolio. Bereket is now Hailemariam’s
policy ‘adviser’, researcher and archivist.  His lack of experience and expertise
makes it apparent that he was just pushed to the backyard. Given the fact that Hailemariam the puppet has already special advisers
well-trusted and liked by the TPLF, Bereket Simon will
find it hard to fit into the army of advisers.   

TPLF’s affairs

One of the
worst case scenarios of a power struggle is that conspiracy becomes dangerously
rife. The more conspiratorial the game players are, the more likely they tend
to shoot at each other. So far the shootings are not out in the open but a
sudden move by a player to dominate the rest can seriously disturb and unsettle
the precarious regime still walking on eggshells. Whatever the case, the internal
power struggle is mainly a TPLF affair. That doesn’t mean that the non-TPLFites would not be needed. Far from it, they are needed
for the same purpose of diversity and loyalty to the major players.

 Azeb Mesfin, the Amhara oddball in the
TPLF, faces an uncertain future. Her power and privilege was totally based on
her husband. Her recent bid to resurrect her fading clout by becoming the mayor
of Addis Ababa failed miserably as she could not win the backing of
TPLF’s kingmakers. TPLF’s ethnic business empire, EFFORT, is likely
to slip out of her hand.

Although
she seems to be determined to stay relevant, she is highly vulnerable. Many
speculate that she could be surprised at some point with charges of corruption,
a TPLF tactic used in times of great crises and power struggle. Her hope is
pinned on the Meles Zenawi
“foundation”. In her recent appearance on TV to talk about the bogus
foundation and beg for money, it became apparent that she is becoming a lone
wolf. She appeared incoherent, stressed-out and ill. All the symptoms are bad
for the queen of Mega, mother of corruption—as some prefer to call her.

Sibehat Nega,
TPLF’s veteran master of political intrigue, cannot be
underestimated.  After all, he
mentored Meles Zenawi under
his bosom. He still holds enormous political clout and continues to pull
strings from behind…There is also a group that continues to complain from
Mekele. Meles Zenawi’s successor and heir apparent, as chairman of
the TPLF, was supposed to be Abay Woldu,
the President of Region One (now renamed Tigray
Regional State). His group feels s overshadowed by those positioned in and
around Arat Kilo, especially his ‘deputy’
Debretsion. Unless Abay Woldu gets a means of coming closer to the seat of power in
Addis, he will remain a regional warlord with no credible leverage to lead
TPLF’s domination on the rest of the nation.

The sleeping giant waking up

Slowly but
surely the sleeping giant is waking up. The opposition is regrouping again. Dissidents
are breaking the shackles of fear. For the first time after the tragedy of the
2005 crackdowns, Semayawi Party and UDJ are coming
out with stronger and bolder messages.

There
seems to be a healthy competition to make an impact and build a movement for
change. Muslims Ethiopians continue to march for equality condemning
TPLF’s tyranny at least every Friday. ESAT is providing a critical voice and
filling the void in the airwaves of Ethiopia. There is no more silence and fear
in Ethiopia. The voices of freedom are getting louder and bolder. And yet
collaboration, more than competition, is still needed among all stakeholders.  

Ethiopia remains
restless and unpredictable. The opportunities that opposition groups need to
seize on are too many. The missing link is visionary leadership with smart
strategies….Opposition groups need to reinvent themselves
and correct their mistakes and failures.

Whatever
the case, change is on the horizon. The cracking pyramid left by tyrant cannot
change withstand the internal and external pressures that can wreck it into
pieces….The opportunities after the great demise of the tyrant are too
many to count.

There are
still some that expect the system to rot and fall down by itself. There are
even those that wait for change to come from above. That is not the kind change
Ethiopia needs. The revolution must be created and smartly dictated by those
who are struggling to transform Ethiopia for the better.