Western diplomats have begun to work on devising a formula for government that in their view will enable Ethiopia to come out of the crisis following the general elections in May. Certain American experts favour a coalition government between the EPRDF (governing) and the opposition, sharing in a proportion to be discussed at a future conference of all the parties which could include the forces of the illegal opposition such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) or the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP). The leader of the delegation of election observers from the European Union (EU), Ana Gomes reported to Brussels that the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was a moderate in the government camp in this debate and that he did not exclude the formation of a coalition government to come out of the crisis. Such a solution would also be favoured by Ana Gomes.

But the EPRDF is divided on this issue. Some ministers, such as Tefera Walwa or Bereket Simeon reject any idea of a government coalition with the opposition, while Sebhat Nega considers that such a tie could not be formed with the Coalition for United and Democracy (CUD) which, according to him, is a bunch of “Amhara chavinists and former DERG partisans”.

The idea of a government coalition also divides the ranks of the opposition. Within the CUD, the hard line view that the popular vote should be respected, giving a victory to the opposition, is supported by the AEUP and Hailu Shawel. Whereas the more moderate faction, willing to negotiate with the government, is represented by the EDP-Medhin and Berhanu Nega’s Rainbow, which appear to be open to the idea of a government in coalition with the EPRDF. But this is far from clear, as the secretary general of the EDP-Medhin himself, Lidetu Ayalew, holds a position close to that of Hailu Shawel.

Within the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF), Beyene Petros has already stated that he is ready to work within the present system and take up his seat in Parliament, even if the results have been manipulated by the regime. Merera Gudina does not hold this viewpoint in public and for the moment is remaining on the stance of the UEDF, corresponding to that expressed by Hailu Shawel to the CUD. As for the UEDF formations that are banned in Ethiopia, they stick to the view that the vote of the electors should be respected and fight for an electoral outcome in keeping with the reality of the vote.

A dozen Ethiopian intellectuals have formed a group of mediators to establish a pathway between the opposition and the government. However, the presence in their midst of Adbul Mohamed Ababora, the founder of the Inter Africa Group, considered as aligned on positions that are too pro-American and too pro-Meles Zenawi, has sent a warning to the opposition as to the “neutrality” of this move.