ADDIS ABABA – THE trial of 129 opposition politicians, journalists and other dissenters starts later this month in Addis Ababa. The accused face a range of charges, including treason and planning “genocide”. Among them are the leaders of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), an umbrella organisation of several parties, mainly representing one of the largest ethnic groups, the Amhara. The prisoners include the coalition’s elected mayor of Addis Ababa, Berhanu Nega, and 13 of the country’s more independent journalists. But putting opponents and critics in the dock on trumped up charges will not endear the government of Meles Zenawi to the western governments that have given Ethiopia hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.
The accused, held without bail since November, were among thousands of people arrested in a general crackdown after the violent anti-government protests that followed Mr Meles’s disputed election victory last May. Aware of the attention the trials will receive, the prime minister has been trying to minimise the damage to his reputation. Foreign surgeons were recently allowed to help operate on an elderly CUD leader, Hailu Shawel, whose eyesight was threatened by an infection. Mr Meles also said that he does not favour the death penalty, should the accused be found guilty.
Capital punishment is still possible, though long prison sentences are more likely. Mr Meles may offer clemency to some of the accused, but will demand political deference in return. Human Rights Watch, a New York-based lobby group, argues that the government is engaged in the violent suppression of any form of protest, punishing suspected supporters of the opposition. Having won an unprecedented number of seats in the election, and carrying Addis Ababa, the capital, the opposition poses a real threat to the regime.
The government’s repressive tactics have proved embarrassing to outsiders. Mr Meles has won international plaudits for reducing poverty and for managing the economy. European governments regard his regime as one of Africa’s least corrupt, and Mr Meles has become an aid darling. Entrepreneurship is at last starting to flourish in Ethiopia. For example, the country has lately managed to win some of the lucrative flower-exporting business away from neighbouring Kenya.
However, the trial is a reminder—if one were needed—of the true nature of the regime and of its authoritarian roots. Human-rights groups estimate that tens of thousands of political prisoners, mostly young, are being held in camps around the country. According to some reports, several prisoners from the biggest ethnic group, the Oromo, have been executed on political grounds, though the government denies this.
All this raises the spectre of sectarian violence. Ethnic divisions have always played a role in Ethiopian politics, but not necessarily an explosive one. It is hard, for instance, to find any educated Ethiopian, even in the government, who really believes opposition leaders were plotting “genocide” against the ethnic Tigrayans, the group from which Mr Meles comes. Amnesty International, another human-rights monitor, considers those standing trial in Addis Ababa to be non-violent “prisoners of conscience”.
The response of the African Union, based in Addis Ababa, has been limp and that of the donor community not much better. At a recent conference, Britain’s prime minister, Tony Blair, found himself in the same room as Mr Meles: “There was, perhaps, if I can say this without being undiplomatic,” said Mr Blair of the Ethiopian situation, “an overreaction.” Mr Meles, beaming at being given such a gentle rebuke, said that if there had been mistakes they would be corrected. Mr Blair then assured everyone that Britain, and the EU, would continue to support Ethiopia.
In fact, the very stability of Ethiopia could be at stake. Mr Meles has embittered the class of professional Amharas that Ethiopia relies on to get things done. And, with high unemployment, millions of urban poor, particularly in the capital, have little to lose. They were mostly the ones gunned down by the trigger-happy police in last year’s street protests. Demonising and imprisoning the politicians they voted for in the election might mean more riots, and more deaths.
