The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) claims that the economy has been growing at a rate that is
unprecedented anywhere. The optimism of the GOE however is neither shared by critical social
theorists nor independent economists. As of late, the IMF and World Bank representatives in
Addis Abeba have started to question the reliability of the numbers that the GOE has been
producing. The World Bank’s Ethiopia and Sudan chief, Mr. Ken Ohashi, whose term of service
expired recently, duped the GOE’s five year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) as
“unrealistic and unsustainable”. Furthermore, a 12 pages long leaked confidential report (Report
Number 63592-ET, dated August 15, 2011, which later became a public document) prepared by
the bank’s staff in Washington DC for its Board of Directors, confirmed the concerns of many
independent economists. The document raises a number of serious policy errors on the part of the
GOE. The purpose of this special issue of the journal is therefore to examine Ethiopia’s
macroeconomic governance and management puzzles.
Hyperinflation, shortages, excess money supply, debt, deficit, excess credit extension, credit
channeling to favored projects and entities, spiraling sovereign debt, unemployment and the
erosion of donor funded poverty alleviation and safety net programs are among the list of
problems that are encountered by the GOE. Notwithstanding these, the GOE’s officials continue
to defend the double digit growth statistics, and argue that much of the inflation is caused by
global prices (imported inflation) rather than policy errors, and attribute the shock to the recent
financial crisis in the United States and the European Union. Analysts in turn argue that the
domestic inflation that can be explained by global price hikes and shocks is rather small. These
independent economists, both foreign and Ethiopian-born, and the IMF and WB, argue the main
causes of the Ethiopian high prices are shortages accompanied by lack (or decreased)
productivity, imprudent monetary policy, fiscal and current account imbalances and, the
monopolization of the economy, and by other misguided government policies such as currency
devaluation and price cap measures. The shortage in turn is exacerbated by the current drought
and structural problems that resulted from prolonged policy rigidity. In December 2011, the
independent Global Financial Integrity revealed that Ethiopia has lost nearly 11.2 billion dollars
through illicit methods. This revelation of gigantic corruption puts a big question mark on the
GOE’s growth statistics.
The Guest Editors of this special issue believe that suitably qualified independent economists
that also have some institutional memory of the Ethiopian economy would be able to resolve not
only the dispute over the growth empirics, but also help in the search for a better and realistic
policy. We, therefore, invite scholars of academic substance who can serve as contributors and
blind reviewers to the Special Issue of the ee-jrif on the Ethiopian economy. We are looking for
high quality scientific papers in the areas of economics, finance, and public policy.
All submissions must be in the English language. The findings of the papers must be supported
by rigorous analysis. The research question(s) and methodology must be explicit, and authors
must outline the research protocol. Researchers who are comfortable with archival, action and
qualitative research methods are encouraged to avoid relying on anecdotal evidence and flimsy
information. The focus can be either on a regional economy or a sector or on the national
economy. All submitted papers will be subjected to standard practice, and go through a double
blind review process. To save time and effort, the editors will screen those papers that are worth
sending for blind reviews.
Researchers need to take a growth perspective in addressing their chosen topic. Potential topics
include agriculture and land use (ownership) policy; climate and finance; land lease charges and
eviction of small scale farmers; population and demography; poverty alleviation; unemployment;
conflict and human displacement; monetary and fiscal policy; growth empirics and inflation;
interest rate and inflation; political governance and public sector accountability; macroeconomic
governance and management; fiscal federalism; inequality; structure of the labor market;
migration and brain drain; remittance and Diaspora bonds; political party owned and managed
companies; privatization of state owned enterprises (SOEs); monopolies and ownership
concentration; corporate governance and shareholders’ rights; private and public sector savings
and investments; credit channeling and credit rationing; performance of sector specific
industries; SMMEs; capital projects and duality; mega projects and public debt; price regulation
and control; commodity prices and commodity exchange; depth and liquidity of the financial
system; extent of integration (decoupling) of the Ethiopian economy to the global financial
market; impact of Ethiopia’s landlocked-ness on its development; foreign trade and terms of
trade, ODA and FDI; the new partnership with China and India; exchange rate and devaluation;
corruption, crime and illicit trade; data integrity and credibility of macroeconomic statistics;
public sector and corporate sector accountability, adoption of international financial reporting
and auditing standards; sovereign debt and corporate debt; financial crisis and the fragility of the
banking system; non performing loans and delinquent enterprises; real estate ownership structure
and bubbles; government capacity in policy formulation, managing and monitoring the economy.
Completed papers and case studies in the above and related areas are invited for submission. The
deadline for completed papers is 28 February, 2012. The review work is planned for April, 2012.
The expected time for the publication of the Special Issue is the end of May, 2012.
Seid Hassan, Professor of Economics, Murray State University and Minga Negash, Professor of
Accounting, Metro State College of Denver & University of the Witwatersrand
