When Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made peace with Eritrea in 2019 just one year after taking office—and won the Nobel Peace Prize for doing so—outsiders would have been forgiven for anticipating improved regional stability. Yet Abiy, challenged with maintaining control over Ethiopia’s culturally diverse regions and addressing economic woes, has attempted to elevate Ethiopia’s regional influence and to distract from internal discontent by adopting a nationalist and hawkish foreign policy. This has exacerbated friction in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia’s foreign policy has now taken center stage.
On Aug. 12, Turkey hosted the foreign ministers of Somalia and Ethiopia for a second round of talks aimed at breaking the impasse following Addis Ababa’s surprise January memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, the semi-autonomous breakaway region in Somalia. The agreement, in which Ethiopia would acquire a naval and commercial base near Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland, drew vocal international criticism, and the United States, European Union, China and the African Union all voiced support for Somalia’s sovereignty.
While there are clear economic incentives driving Ethiopia’s assertive posturing, much of it is wrapped in nationalistic sentiment. For instance, Abiy has proclaimed that “Ethiopia’s existence is tied to the Red Sea,” while making it clear that he wants Ethiopia to become a naval power. He expressed this ambition as early as 2018, indicating he isn’t just interested in sea access to diversify Ethiopia’s trade. He has stressed the significance of the sea access Ethiopia enjoyed in the three decades following Addis Ababa’s annexation of post-colonial Eritrea in 1962, before losing it again in 1993 when Eritrea seceded.