Although not all the votes have been tallied and certified yet, the lesson emerging from this election is loud and clear: civic society is rising in Ethiopia and Maoism is heading for the history dust-bin. I salute those political leaders who believed in peaceful struggle and stayed on course despite the threats of government forces and the intimidation from the “political hooligans” of the Diasporas. Maoism was not an exclusive forte of the ruling party; it has been shared by others such as EPRP and Meison.

At long last, we have real and democratic Cultural Revolution taking hold in the country. Despite some restrictions and obstacles, the rules that regulate opposition parties to operate legally and fairly are there to stay, and might even improve further. I tip my hat to those leaders such as Dr. Beyene, Dr. Merara, Engineer Shawel, Dr. Brehanu Nega, Ato Lidetu Ayalew , Professor Mesifin Woldemariam, Ato. Brehane Mewa and many others who for years remained committed to building civic society and the rule of law. For all practical purposes, these individuals led a Cultural Revolution, for which history will remember them as brave visionaries. Because of their efforts, the foundation for political power now lays in the will of the people through their ballets not their guns. I also tip my hat to Prime Minister Meles for opening a window of opportunity, which would ultimately hold him accountable, although he did it out of political expediency and miscalculations.

Sadly, some opposition groups mocked peaceful struggle and labeled it as “Plot” designed to benefit the ruling party. Unfortunately, they missed the revolution as they did in the 70s. Those forces bent on classical Maoist philosophy and “protracted” peasant war are in for a big surprise. They will be increasingly marginalized and irrelevant in Ethiopian polity. The old hullabaloo won’t cut it any more than Woyane’s ethnic clamor.

The ruling party, EPRDF, grudgingly opened up the election process relatively better than the ones held in the past. One may wonder why a Maoist Party, EPRDF, dared to embark on a course that would ultimately demise itself. Three reasons come to mind: The first may be to appease the donor community, including United States, which has been increasingly skeptical of Mr. Meles’s commitment to democracy. The second reason was, just like EPRP and Meison, Meles did not think the opposition would rise to the occasion and put up formidable challenge against his reign. The last reason, and perhaps as important, may have been that since the Prime Minister is out of touch and surrounded by “yes men”, he could have underestimated Ethiopians deep commitment for Ethiopia.

Whatever reasons he had, this time, I suppose, he may not outsmart anyone. For fourteen years and counting, he lampooned against the new and emerging civic society of urban Ethiopia. I guess it is pay back time, and the people have spoken. In areas where observers’ presence was strong, the opposition had a commanding lead. In places where communications and monitoring were poor, EPRDF claimed a lead. As of today, one thing is clear: all of the leading members of the ruling party lost the elections by wide margins.

To be fair, Meles may win the minimum majority required which would allow him to form a government. Regardless of the margin, a representative parliamentary body is in the making, which would not be a rubber stamp institution that would allow him to make a mockery of Ethiopia’s domestic and international policy. Mind you this is the same prime minister who crafted economic policy to develop Ethiopia’s water resources with the help of Egyptian technical experts. My guess is that those days are gone, and he will be fully accountable by the people’s representatives.

Elections have been held in the past under successive governments. This time, however, it was held under global scrutiny with an alternative agenda and leadership. The domestic oppositions held up together and formed a working platform despite destructive efforts from within. CUD, the leading opposition party, was borne to shoulder the often fatal consequences of politics. This time, EPRDF can not canny its way out of its predicament with its old tricks. The stakes are too high for them to disregard to voices of the people. Hence, we are witnessing a true cultural revolution

What was also interesting to note, just a week before the election, the PM was preoccupied warning almost every segment of society about a “possible Interhamwee,” a reference to Rwanda’s genocide. The good part is he is wrong; Ethiopia is not Rwanda. The sad fact, however, is that after 14 years as head of Ethiopian government, he still does not know the Ethiopian people. If not this time, five years from now, he may have to depart his office before he knows Ethiopia.

Viva Peaceful Struggle and Civic Society!
May 20, 2005