Hegemony: Potential for war between Ethiopia & Eritrea

Internecine war of 1998 -2000

The root
cause of the ugly internecine war of 1998 – 2000 between Ethiopia and Eritrea that
claimed 100, 000 lives, numerous injuries, dislocation of innocent citizens and
colossal damage to the economy should be revisited in order to predict whether
more of the same would repeat. The fact that Zenawi  publicly complained that he was “stabbed in
the back” by his mentor Isaias Afeworqui
may provide a clue but may not reveal the truth regarding their differences
causing havoc to national and regional peace and stability. Any incident may
ignite war between Ethiopia and Eritrea – not necessarily the ‘volcano attack. This
writer would like to draw lessons from world history of warfare to make his
best guess of the reason for the split of the duo that led to the war and then
predict whether a second one may breakout.

Wars fought since the dawn of written
history

Hundreds of
wars big and small have been fought on our planet since the dawn of written
history. For the purpose of this article, a snapshot of the two major wars of
the 20^th century is mentioned. World War I (1914 – 1918) involving
the Triple Entente against the Central powers resulted in the loss of nine million
lives and 21 million injuries. It ended in redrawing of boundaries and Germany was
made to pay reparations as an aggressor. 
World War II (1939 -1945) broke out two decades later with the rise of
Adolf Hitler; it ended with an estimated loss of lives ranging from 50 – 70
million; other statistical sources estimate 62 – 78 million lives lost.
Ethiopia was an innocent victim of this devastating war although Italian
Fascist invaders occupied the country in 1936. The expansionist Fascist Italian
Dictator, Mussolini, had one and only one reason to invade Ethiopia and commit
atrocious criminal acts on her citizens; it was rivalry with European colonial masters
to spread his hold over as many countries as possible in Africa using the human
and economic resources of Ethiopia as well as the fighting acumen of Ethiopian
patriots of which he knew very well by the humiliating defeat of Italian
aggressors in the famous Battle of Adwa.

Incidentally,
the mostly peasant multi-ethnic Ethiopian patriotic forces, under the Northern
Command of Ras Kassa Hailu, dealt  a
shaming defeat to  Marshal Badoglio’s  modern army supported by air power. He reconfirmed
the bravery of Ethiopian patriots in Tigray in 1936
almost in tears over his loss. Leaflets dropped over villages in Tigray singled out the Amharas
and Oromos¹ in particular for hindering the ‘civilizing’ mission of
Italy; the leaflets carried strict warning intimidating villagers not to
cooperate with the Ethiopian army in any way. But fighter-bomber airplanes and
containers filled with poison gas dropped from the air made the difference
culminating in the occupation of Ethiopia for 5 years. All along Ethiopians
treated Italian captives humanely and thought the savage a lesson in
compassion.

The quest for
sphere of influence continues to this date supported by sophisticated gunboat
diplomacy and/or military intervention by proxy or directly in the era of
neocolonialism.

Loss due to internal conflicts in
Ethiopia since 1974

The carnage
to human lives and hemorrhage to the economies on both the national and
regional scale since the breakout of the Ethiopian revolution in 1974 is
despicably staggering. The parties in the upheavals include: protagonists of
White Terror and Red Terror; separatists like ELF, Shabia,
TPLF et al staunchly supported by the Arab world; the Greater Somalia ambition
of Ziade Barre ignoring the
OAU Charter to which Somalia was a signatory party – a typical example of
hegemony still displayed by the five stars on national flag of Somalia.   Add to this the invasion of Ethiopia by the Barre’s army equipped to the brim by the defunct USSR while
Ethiopia was denied arms by the Carter Administration even though those arms
were paid for from the miniscule treasury of in 1977.

Pretexts for
starting wars could on the surface be ideological, sectarian, or racial hatred;
but in the end hegemony and economic domination are the real underlying goal of
political leaders.

Rivals in the pursuit of hegemony

The former
inherited similar characteristics from his foster father Isaias
Afeworqui. Child and father are both up to their
necks in committing heinous crimes including genocide, war crimes, crimes
against humanity, engaging in proxy war, gross economic mismanagement, and
destabilizing the region of the Horn of Africa, ad infinitum. 

It is obvious
that Meles Zenwi and Isaias Afeworqui are the main
rivals for regional supremacy in the Horn of Africa. Ironically both worked
hand in glove to obliterate Ethiopia and share the spoils. TPLF took Addis
Ababa in 1991 and Isaias’ Shabia
took Asmara and declared independence in a referendum, a whopping 99.83%
supporting secession from Ethiopia responding to a sole questionnaire asking to
choose between slavery and freedom. The much vaunted wild  ‘vision’ of making Eritrea the Singapore of
Africa was shattered for the assumption of making Ethiopia as Eritrea’s market
for its industrial products became untenable. 

The duo split
for economic reasons without which political power cannot be sustained. The two
dictators are now miserably desperate misruling impoverished countries and for
that reason it is highly improbable that they have the stamina to wage war. If
they do against so many odds one should expect refugees and army deserters
flowing in both directions.  The final
solution may then be reversion to the Federation ante, which was dismantled by
the Imperial regime.

Factors to consider

Following
factors should be considered in the prediction of war between Ethiopia and
Eritrea:

1. Degree to which the two arrogant and belligerent
   tyrants asses their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
   (SWOT) analysis, comprehensively and objectively, will be a determinant
   factor one way or another. If done properly, the outcome of the SWOT
   analysis should tell the duo that it is suicidal for both to engage in a
   major military clash. But experience shows that both are driven by petty
   pride;
2. Independence, strength, agility and dedication of
   civil societies: Independent civil societies do not exist in both
   countries to organize and hold public demonstrations to oppose hostilities.
   But Ethiopians and Eritreans in the Diaspora can collaboratively mount
   opposition to war between the peoples ruled under duress and suffering abject
   poverty;
3. Influence by foreign interests: The two dictators
   are surrogates of foreign powers that drive them on a collision course. Delinking
   Isaias from Al Shabab
   through concerted persuasion of the international community will make Zenawi irrelevant to the West, especially to the USA
   and U.K, and thus weakening his rationale and appetite for waging
   war. 
4.  Intervention by
   the AU and UN: These two international bodies can play diplomatic role to
   avert war; Ethiopians and Eritreans should collaborate to engage both of
   them to act positively;
5. Unemployed youth: The rampant unemployment of the
   youth in the region provide a convenient pool of available manpower
   suitable for conscripting the young into the military for short training
   and then deploy them  as fighters. Parents
   and civil societies on both sides should influence their children not to
   fall prey to the propaganda of their dictatorial rulers and engage in an
   unjust senseless war once again between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Readers may
consider the above and add more of their own to predict whether or not war may
breakout between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As for me the danger for war does exist
given the saber rattling stance between Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afeworqi and their rivalry for regional hegemony.

Lastly, I am
reminded of a distinguished Professor who told me about Murphy’s Law and the
next day, almost in tears, complained that he lost his document while giving it
the last touch on his laptop for presentation to his employers.” What can
happen, will happen” according to Murphy’s Law; let us all work hard and pray in
earnest so that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea won’t happen ever again.

1 Source:
 Habešská Odyssea (YeHabesha Jebdu) የሃበሻ ጀብዱ by Adolf Parlesak
Translated by Techane Jobre Mekonnen – page 214 ·  It is an excellent book by the Advisor  to Ras Kassa during the Italian Fascist invasion.