Initiative Africa fumbles

By Yosef Yisak (March 30, 2005)

The Woyane regime is making
desperate effort to counter the surge and popularity of the opposition groups
particularly the Coalition of Democratic Forces (CUD) that took it by surprise in
its ability to generate support from Ethiopians across the board for the
upcoming election.  The flame that
desires change is propagating with an astonishing speed in all parts of the
nation like never before.

Although the EPRDF regime
was very reluctant to admit its unpopularity and the strength of the opposition
forces, it has recently swallowed the sour fact following the massive
demonstration in Addis Ababa and other major cities opposing the so called
“give and take” peace initiative of the Prime Minister. 

Considering the election
date is coming closer and the fact that it is facing a strong opposition, the
regime has started conducting a major effort to make sure it remains in power.
Among the strategies the Meles group employed to counter the opposition
particularly the CUD is to make indirect propaganda effort in the name of
preliminary election assessment survey in major cities conducted by a
non-governmental agency named Initiative Africa (IA) whose president is Kibure
Gena.

Observers believe that the
aim for this propaganda is to falsely show the popularity of the PM and the
regime among Ethiopians for the consumption of international groups and
embassies ahead of the election and make the outcome of the election close to
this finding creating no surprise. It is also intended to create a reference
base thus making it easy to justify to international observers.  Most of all, it will help the regime in
discouraging the public who are new to this process as it is from casting their
votes knowing that they will not change the outcome. 

It is a known fact from
history that statistics can be manipulated to support the special interest and
it is proven again by the findings of the IA group. Intellectuals who are
shocked with the results of this study have already started dissecting the
findings and want the public and international groups to be aware. 

As expected, the study shows
a commanding lead for EPRDF wining with significant margins in cities of
Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia as well as Addis Ababa. Meles also attained the
highest popularity rating of 75% and Ato Hailu Shawel who is president of the
largest opposition group, which is the CUD, obtained the lowest among ten
contestants.  Do we see a pattern here?

Let us first evaluate the
popularity of Meles in question form.

Has Meles reached the
Ethiopian people in the past 12 years to be liked this much? Has he visited the
city dwellers in any major city of Ethiopia besides his own region and
discussed their concern or is he stranger to them?  Is it Meles or Ato Hailu who was cruising in a convertible car in
the streets of Khartoum cheering the public but never in his own country as a
leader? Does the IA group believe that people have forgotten his remark on
their national flag?  How about the
disastrous political upset in the border demarcation negotiation? 

On the other side, who
created the largest opposition group in the history of our nation?  Who is the president of the leading
opposition group that is giving hope for change to Ethiopians? Is it Ato Hailu
or Ato Meles who discussed face to face with Ethiopians both from the city and
country side providing them support and hope? 
Who is the person that was there to listen to their problems and
explained their rights taking diffcult roads trips in car and traveling in all
direction of the nation ranging from Afar to Gondar all the way up to the
Southern Ethiopia?  What person and
opposition party does Meles’s fear most and wants to belittle and setup?  Is it Ato Hailu Shawel or Meles that created
the flame that is running in four directions throughout Ethiopia desiring
change like never seen before?

Let us also go over the
different spectrum of the society whom we
are told by the survey voted in a commanding manner for the ruling regime
of EPDRF and Meles.

Are they the farmers who
can’t even pay their debt for fertilizers?

How about the merchants and
business men who cry every day of impartiality and TPLF business Monopoly?

Are they the city dwellers
who can’t go month to month with their meager salary considering the ever
increasing cost of living?  How about
their children who are wondering in the streets of the cities having no job?

Let us also not forget the
students who have paid dearly on several occasions with their lives for
academic freedom and their cause for the motherland not to mention the
disastrous education policy.

Let us also remember the
poor and the homeless who are captured at night to be thrown outside the cities
and where some are found being dinner for hyenas.

How about the people of
Awasa and Gambela where there brothers were massacred by EPRDF forces and with
no accountability?  Did we forget the
people from Badme and Irob who have lost their land and are displaced in large
numbers? 

How about the Afar who lost
Assab and have only the desert left that has no economic significance? 

How about the Ethiopian army
members who sacrificed over 70,000 of their colleages as well as the families
that lost their children for a land to be handed back by the regime?

Are they the crying father
and mother of the children with HIV or the children’s that lost their parents?

The data and process the
study employed to come up with the result is a puzzle that is diffcult to
comprehend and swallow as can be seen from the samples above.

The firm also did not
consider or even raised the issue whether people are afraid to speak freely
knowing the human rights record of the regime? It is a government that taps
phones (as indicated by the recent Human rights watch report) to spy and people
know this.  The firm is asking them to
complete a questionnaire that is given to them by a stranger and whom they have
no idea where they came from.  Does this
agency think that people are fools to give in writing and put themselves in
trouble? 

Among the other strategies
that should be noted the Meles group employed includes planting of its cadres
as non-partisan election officials, registering children as voters.  Recent news reports revealed that a one-year
old child and children less than five years have been documented as legitimate
voters.  In addition, significant
numbers of government cadres and supporters have registered in multiple
places.  

All these desperate acts,
however, will not stop the struggle of the Ethiopian people that is surging as
tidal waves with nowhere to stop until it empowers itself. However, it is
extremely disappointing to learn that an Ethiopian owned professional company
appearing as non-partisan manipulating the facts in the name of scientific
study to serve the interest of the regime at the same time profiting from the
international fund allocated for the study in the name of Democracy for
Africa. 

After seeing the results of
the IA group which came out indicating 180 degree away from the reality as
explained above, one should wonder about the motive. It is also diffcult
comprehend how the IA group dared to undermine the intelligence of the
Ethiopian people without a strong backing. 
Is there a secret alliance be it a marriage of convenience or ethnic
ties or a special interest?  The truth
shall always prevail.

END

Dissecting the Surface Findings of
Initiative Africa

By Dagmawie Abraham, USA

The pre-election survey of
Initiative Africa (IA) regarding the tally for the first party choice was conducted
in 138 enumeration areas and the samples are representative of the urban areas
of the four major regions of Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, and SNNP in addition to
Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and Harar cities. The result of this study is
illustrated on Table 1 that is shown below.

Considering the fact that the work was conducted
by a professional and non-partisan organization for the first time in Ethiopia,
intellectuals were curious in the outcome of the study as well as the
findings.  However, after evaluating the
results reported even without going to the core of the study serious flows and
concerning issues have been observed. 
The concern has even reached to the level of questioning the ability
and/or integrity of the IA group in which you will find out as you follow
through the article.

Among obvious errors observed are the sums of
percentages of the different categories as indicated in Table 1 for region of
“Tigray” and “The Overall Average?” 
Simply putting it, it defies the basic rule of high school algebra by
not adding up to 100% or close to it. 
Observers even thought at first that the newspaper (Nation) that
reported it first might have made an error until seeing other media outlets
reporting the same figures.  The problem
comes when adding the percentage of each of the categories for the region of
Tigray which came out to be 160% and similarly for the “Overall Average” which
is 124%.  After adjusting the errors and
calculating the correct percentages EPRDF support reduced in both instances.

Why did corrected EPRDF support fell to 31% in
stead of the reported 39% in the Overall Average?  Similarly why did the corrected figure drop to 60% in stead of
the reported 96% in Tigray?   Is the 96%
a camouflage to impress Tigray with an Ace?

Can the reported error that shows a better
approval rating helps EPRDF in facilitating pre and post election
scenarios?  Does it help EPRDF image
over the opposition?

Another obvious error is the percentage in the
“No Party to Support” category for the Total Average which is listed as 33%
while non of the regions/cities show any number higher than 17%.  Again this error has helped EPRDF support
percentages higher than what they should be for each of the regions/cities
results and if corrected will drop the current EPRDF support percentages by an
estimate of 20%.

Table 1,    Initiative Africa Findings as Reported
Region/City	EPRDF	CUD	Hebret	no party to support	Undecided	others	Total
Tigray	96%	0%	0%	17%	40%	7%	160%
Amhara	27%	7%	2%	17%	40%	7%	100%
Oromia	31%	8%	6%	10%	37%	9%	101%
SNNR	41%	9%	5%	8%	33%	3%	99%
Addis	40%	8%	5%	4%	34%	8%	99%
Harrai	32%	8%	4%	12%	27%	18%	101%
DireDawa	28%	14%	13%	14%	29%	1%	99%
Total Avg.	39%	8%	4%	33%	33%	7%	124%
Table 2,     Corrected Percentages of Initiative Africa Study
Region/City	EPRDF	CUD	Hebert	no party to support	Undecided	others	Total
Tigray	60%	0%	0%	11%	25%	4%	100%
Total Avg.	31%	Not Voted for EPRDF = 69%					100%

 

As we all know people in
Ethiopia are in general afraid to express their political views for fear of
persecution as witnessed by different Human Rights reports.  It also a known fact that the regime relies
heavily on espionage where government spies have infested the cities including
academic institutions not to mention the regimes telephone tapping as reported
by Human Rights Group just recently.

This fear factor is revealed
indirectly by the high percentage of “undecided voters” and “no party voters”
which is around 60%, twice that of EPRDF support.

If we ask the key question,
What political group are people afraid ? The unarmed opposition or the powerful
EPRDF regime?  The answer will lead us to
where these votes that are declared neutral currently will go during
election.  As a rule of thumb people are
afraid to express openly the despise they have for any dictatorial regime in
power.  Especially knowing the culture
in Ethiopia, people do not trust strangers who came up with a questionnaire
that they are not familiar with to find out their political choice.

Following the above
reasoning and taking numbers of this study (where there is a major potential
for error if evaluated from the core), the tally for EPRDF is only 31% while
the total for those desiring change is 69%. 
As revealed on Table 3 below (tabulated based on the IA results) there
is a good potential for the regime to lose over 300% of its parliamentary seats
which implies loosing its authority and control in forming the government.

 

Table 3,    Impact on EPRDF Control of Current Parliamentary Seats
Current EPRDF Parliament Seats in %					99%
Current potential support for EPRDF in % based on Table 2 and Study					31%
EPRDF expected potential % drop of Parliament Seats based on Table 2 & Study					319%

 

The IA group has also conducted
a tally for support and likeability of individual candidates:  The study had selected one (1) candidate
from EPDRF, seven (7) Candidates from CUD and two (2) candidates from Hebret as
shown on Table 4 that is listed below.

The selection of the candidates
has raised several key questions that need answers from the IA group.  Most
observers agree that it is this portion of the study that fully brought into
question the integrity of the IA group as well as it’s impartiality towards
EPRDF particularly towards Meles. 
Table 4 below summarizes the findings of this article in a simplified
way. 

 

Table 4,    Candidates Vote Distribution along Party and Coalition
Region/City	EPRDF						CUD						Hebret			Tot
Political Parties	TPLF	ANDM		OPDO		South	AEUP			EDP-Medh	Rainbow		Hebret		ONC
Candidates per Party	1	0		0		0	2			3	2		1		1	10
Avg. Vote Division along Party line	1	n/a		n/a		n/a	2			3	1		1		1
Avg. Vote Division along Coalition	1						7						2			10
Meles Vote Rating	Meles as the only candidate of TPLF and EPRDF as it was in the Study with 75 Pts.						Assuming the same Meles being one of the seven (7) candidates of CUD.
Equivalent Comparison	Equals 75/1 = 75						Equals 75/7 = 10.71

The most serious question
for the IA group will be in why it picked seven (7) candidates from CUD and
only one (1) from EPRDF?  Does this help
Meles since all the votes that went to EPRDF goes to him while it divides CUD
candidates vote on average by seven (7) from the total vote caste of CUD?  Why seven (7) fold advantage to Meles over
CUD and nine (9) fold over the total opposition?  Why only one from TPLF and two and three from each of the CUD
parties?

Who gave authority to the IA
group to cherry pick the candidates involved in the tally?  Why did the IA group pass the President of
EDP-Medhin and Vice President of CUD, Dr. Admasu Gebeyehu?  Why pick the fatherly figure of EPD-Medhin
over the President of the Party?  Did
the IA group obtain approval from the parties as far as whom to include and not
in having the audacity to bypass the party chairman over less critical
candidates?

What would be IA group response
in picking Professor Mesfin, an intellectual who officially declared that he is
not running for Parliamentary seat?  Why
did the IA group went out of its way to add another candidate of CUD while only
one (1) for EPRDF with so many available? Why not pick former President Negasso
Gidada who is running for the Parliament representing another political party
instead of dividing individual votes of CUD leaders by
a factor of seven (7)?

Does this action promote
TPLF particularly Meles over other EPRDF parties?  Does it also undermine the leadership of the other ethnic parties
within EPRDF who have four (4) to six (6) fold as many parliamentary
representatives currently in the House? How about Addisu Legesse, Tefera Walewa
and Genet Zewdie of ANDM if not Tamerat Layene?  How about Ali Abedo, Gen. Abadula and Girma Birru of OPDO if not
the ex-president Negasso Gidada?  How
about Kassu Ilala of the Southern party not to mention Abate Kisho? Does this
action reinforce the talk of the nation that the power grip within EPRDF is
with TPLF and Meles while the other ones like ANDM and their leaders are pussy
cats with no say except orders to take? 
Wouldn’t it be fair to circulate the most powerful position which is the
Prime Minister among the various ethnic parties of EPRDF since TPLF had it for
the last 12 years despite its one fifth (1/5) size compared to the Giant three
(OPDO,ANDM, Southern) ?

Does the selection also go
to the level of undermining TPLF’s member Arkebe Equbie in favor of Meles? How
about Gebru Asrat who lead the opposition rally in Addis not to mention Seye
Abraha?

Finally coming to the golden
question, Can one deduce form the above
knowingly or unknowingly that there is a consistent pattern in the study that
promotes a specific coalition and party within and ends in support of a
particular candidate?   It should
also be recognized that the observed pattern in the current surface analysis
has a great potential to reveal itself more when assessed at the core level of
the study.   It could possibly be “garbage
in”, “garbage out” data analysis unless a careful scientific approach with zero
bias was employed at the time not infecting the generated data.

END

 

 

NEWS MEDIA REPORTS

Initiative Africa launches pre-election
survey

By Kaleyesuse Bekele

Initiative
Africa (IA) on Thursday launched a pre-election survey of urban areas and towns
of major regions of Ethiopia.

At
a meeting held at the Ghion Hotel, IA, a local NGO, introduced the survey it
conducted in Addis Ababa and various regional towns. The survey includes the
opinions of urban dwellers on their perception of the election on different
issues. Ato Kibour Gena, director of IA, said the opinion-based survey was
conducted in Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, SNNP, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and Harar.

Kibour
said the survey includes the opinions of 2,600 respondents. It took IA four
weeks to conduct the surevey. More than 80 people, including statisticians,
were involved in the study. The organization spent 350,000 birr for the study.
Kibour said the amount could reach 400,000 participants asked organizers of the
meeting why the study was conducted only in towns ignoring the rural areas
where the majority Ethiopians live Kibour said the organization had budget
constraint to cover all the rural and urban areas. “We would be very glad
to do that if we had the potential,” he said. Some of the participants
said there were some questions which must have been included in the questioner.
Kibour said that this was only the begining and IA would improve the study upon
the suggestion of the public. IA is a not-for profit it is a non-partisan
organization. 

The Very First Pre-Election Survey Conducted Here

Addis
Tribune (Addis Ababa)

ANALYSIS
March 25, 2005
Posted to the web
March 25, 2005

The first ever pre-election survey conducted by Initiative
Africa with the participation of Addis Ababa Women Entrepreneurs’ Association
and Build Ethiopia is said to be completed with the final version expected to
be out next April 10.

The main objective of the survey, according to Initiative
Africa, is to explain why voters vote the way they do and why some parties are
more successful than others.

The survey was conducted in 138 enumeration areas and the
samples are representative of the urban areas of the four major regions of
Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, and SNNP in addition to Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and
Harar cities.

The survey examines a wide range of political attitudes
about candidates, issues and the traits Ethiopians want in their leaders. It
has also a particular emphasis on the effects of media exposure, campaign
commercials and news from radio, television and newspapers.

Initiative Africa, however, warns against generalization of
the result to the entire country. It is interesting to note that the tally for
first party choice is: CDU 8%, UDFE 4%, EPRDF 39%, No party to support is 33%,
Not Decided 33% and the remaining 7% support other parties. Tabulated by
regions: Tigray CDU 0%, UDFE 0%, and EPRDF 96%. No party to support 17%,
Undecided 40%, and other parties 7%, Amhara CDU 7% , UDEF 2%, EPRDF 27%, No
party to support 17%, Not Decided 40%, other parties 7%; Oromia CDU 8%, UDFE
6%, EPRDF 31%, No party to support 10% Not Decided 37%, Other Parties 9%;SNNPR
CDU 11%, UDFE5% EPRDF 41%, No party to support 8%, Not Decided 33%, Other
parties 3% ; Harari CDU 8%, UDFE 4%, EPRDF 32%, No party to support 12%, Not
Decided 27%, Other Parties 18%; Addis Ababa Administration CDU 8%, UDFE 5%,
EPRDF 40%, No party to support 4%, Not Decided 34%, Other Parties 8%; and Dire
Dawa CDU 14%, UDFE 13%, EPRDF 28%, No party to support 14%, Not Decided 29% and
other Parties 1%.

According to the Survey there seems to be a very high
degree of political apathy among the urban adult population. Only 29.37% of the
urban population turned out to be politically concerned.

Political concern shows wide variations by gender, region,
ethnicity, age group and education. Men are more politically concerned (42.14%)
and the least is Harari with a rate of 13.27%. In terms of ethnicity, the
Kembatas are leading with the highest rate of 62.25%, followed by the Sidamas
51.65%; Tigray comes third with 39.14%.

It is observed that significant variations in responses
regarding unemployment exist among the respondents in the different regions.
The first question regarding unemployment was “Do you think unemployment
has gone up after EPRDF took power”. Almost every respondent in Dire Dawa
(93 percent) believes that unemployment has “Gone Up”. The responses
by Harari respondents are almost identical, 81 percent, to that of Dire Dawa
respondents. Respondents who said “gone up” include 56 percent in
Oromia, 55 percent in Addis Ababa, 54 percent in Amhara and 45 percent in
Tigray. “Gone down” was cited in Tigray (38 percent), Addis Ababa (29
percent) and 21 percent in Oromia.

38% of the total population said EPRDF is the only strong
party and 32.6% were against the opinion that it is the only strong party in
the country.The proportion of respondents in support of this opinion is very
high (72.7%) in Tigray compared to only 27.7% in Amhara, 34.4% in Oromia and
34.7% in SNNPR.

Those who had formal schooling are against the opinion of
EPRDF’s being the only strong party in the country.

Analysts say that if the political parties come together
and manage to sway the very large number of undecided voters in their favor
then they might beat the incumbent ruling party. But if they stay as they are,
analysts maintain, the ruling party, EPRDF, will stand a chance to rule the
country for another five years.