Meles warns Eritrea not to attack


April 29, 2004

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ADDIS ABABA, April 29 (Reuters) – Ethiopia’s prime minister warned Eritrea’s leadership of dire consequences if they start a new war over a disputed border, saying on Thursday his response might go beyond simply securing Ethiopian territory.

Meles Zenawi told Reuters in an interview he hoped Eritrea would accept his offer of dialogue to ease tensions over the implementation of a peace deal ending their 1998-2000 war, but said Eritrean leaders were capable of “unthinkable” actions.

The border conflict ended with the accord signed in 2000 by Meles and Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki, but disputes over a new boundary drawn up by a commission as part of the agreement have raised fears that fighting could resume.

“The (Eritrean) government has issued statements to the effect that it might use force to resolve the problem, and has stated that publicly on a number of occasions,” Meles said.

“If the Eritrean leadership decides to start another war…the consequences will be more dire to the leadership itself than was the last war,” Meles said, reiterating that Ethiopia would never attack first.

“This will be the most unpredictable war and I don’t think the outcome will be beneficial to anybody, but I think that the leadership in Asmara would probably lose more than anybody else.”

Eritrea accepted a ceasefire during the last conflict after Ethiopian forces drove deep into its territory in the fighting, in which an estimated 70,000 people were killed.

Meles, who has faced pressure from critics over landlocked Ethiopia’s failure to secure Eritrean ports, said it would be hard to judge where to stop fighting if there was another war.

“We knew where we had to stop the last war,” Meles said. “Once the Eritreans were kicked out of our territory, it had to be stopped and we stopped it, because it was about our border,” he said.

“Now it would be difficult to know when and where it would stop if it starts,” he said. “The war may not stop where it stopped last time.”

“BALL IN ERITREA’S COURT”

Meles and Isayas were once close allies whose guerrilla movements united to topple former Marxist military ruler Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991, clearing the way for Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993.

Relations have worsened since Ethiopia rejected the new border drawn up by the boundary commission, partly because it awarded the symbolic town of Badme to Eritrea.

Britain, the United States and others have urged Ethiopia to accept the ruling, but analysts say Meles would face major internal opposition if he ceded the flashpoint town.

Eritrea has called for sanctions to force Ethiopia to accept the decision of the commission, which was supposed to be “final and binding” under the terms of their peace deal.

Meles said it was up to Eritrea to accept its offer of dialogue to break the impasse over the frontier and to agree to meet with a special U.N. envoy appointed to soothe tensions.

“Because the initiative, the ball, is in the Eritrean court on both counts, there is very little that we can do to move the process one way or the other. Ultimately the key is in Asmara.”

“I hope that they don’t make a blunder, but that’s just hope, there is no certainty in it.”