The state of Ethiopian Politics: The nation is currently run by a dictator. By its very nature dictatorship will not willingly give up power without a credible threat that it cannot survive. The current dictator has a powerful foreign support because of his purported stance against international terrorists; this has in turn cowered the population into submission. The dictator has planted so much inter-ethnic animosity, and today there are many ethnic based liberation movements, who are totally immobile because of lack of realistic objectives and lack of means to achieve them.
The fate of Ethiopian politic: With a dictator who will not listen to any proposals except those which he formulates, and the opposition parties who regard each other with same jaundiced view in which they regard the dictator one does not expect any rapprochements between parties in the foreseeable future, unless something dramatic happens in the political equilibrium!
The fate of Ethiopia: With politics persisting on the current trajectory, it is not farfetched that Ethiopia’s fate may be similar to that of Somalia!
What I am about to say here may have no meaning for those who think they know all that they need to know about Ethiopia and humanity! For them what I write is a waste of time. However, there are many who, like me, are struggling with conflicting thoughts of wanting to preserve a nation in the face of a destructive force that today is in power!
Knowingly or unknowingly both those in power and their opponents have exploited this predicament felt by the masses. I hope what follows will go some way to help resolve this conflict in the minds of Ethiopians who want to find an honest solution! By the way, as far as I am concerned the members of the TPLF, EPLF, OLF, ONLF and all other Ethiopia …LFs including village-LFs are all Ethiopians with equal rights in the eyes of a just law!
Who are the EPRDF members: The dreaded EPRDF are, believe it or not, made of people! There are many categories of these people and we need to look at them:
National EPRDF Leaders
Regional EPRDF leaders
Local EPRDF leaders
Lower level EPRDF officers
Ordinary membership:
(a) Grass-root supporters
(b) Obligate membership
Like in any dictatorship, among the groups #1-4 one will find:
Those who give orders to kill, torture, or deprive the ordinary citizens and those they consider a threat to them.
Those who carry out executions, tortures and deprivations as ordered by their superiors
Those who take law into their hands and kill, torture, extort and deprive even without the knowledge of their superiors
Those whose sympathy are with the ordinary people and feel they better stay within the dictatorship structure, unpleasant as it may be, and protect the people from the full impact of the dictator’s rule.
By far the largest group of membership is in group #5. These run in millions, and the majority of this group are ordinary people who just do what their local leaders and the grass-root party activists tell them. They are farmers, herdsmen, business people and laborers. They are members of the EPRDF, not necessarily by choice but by necessity! Many of the grass-root activists may fall under same category in terms of choice, for fear of local officials who spy on them and who may end their lives and livelihood if found to deviate from the party line! This is a generic observation under a dictatorship and EPRDF will have its own peculiarities which the readers will be familiar with!
So, one sees that the majority of the EPRDF membership are ordinary people who are just trying to survive, who have to toe the line to give credibility to an otherwise liberation movement bent on dismantling Ethiopia! Within the leadership of EPRDF is the inner core of TPLF which, of course, is the real power in the organization and this most likely where the crime against Ethiopia and Ethiopians is hatched. The rest of the EPRDF is just a cover up for this core of powerful people!
So what is/will be the impact of TPLF/EPRDF action on TPLF/EPRDF?:
Hostility with an erstwhile comrade-in-arms to the North – Eritrea’s leadership
Hostility with Tigrean people who are abused by the current regime, who stays in power by exploiting them
Hostility with the oppressed people inside Ethiopia, throughout all regions
Hostility with Somalia aggravated by the on-going occupation
Crippling poverty in the country
Solutions to EPRDF Predicaments: Human relations generally fall into three different categories: friendly, hostile or indifferent. A friendly relation, of course, is the situation where all positive aspects of human life proliferate: security, health, good governance, wealth, and progress, to name a few. These developments tend to be exponential as a preceding positive action generates further positive actions in a geometric progression! On the other hand, a hostile relation perpetuates hostility as the opposing side retaliates in kind. The situation becomes dangerous and unstable when someone’s life is taken extra-judicially! The killer now expects relatives or friends of the diseased to retaliate, hence, as self protection he/she goes on a killing spree, and with each life lost or each setback suffered by one side the determination to avenge becomes acute as the fear of the culprit also becomes acute.
Under the stewardship of the current regime, so many cycles of wrongful killings have taken place, people have been turned against each other for the benefit of the few, and so many other wrongs have been done against so many people, so much so that today it is paranoia which reigns in Ethiopia and Meles has become the main victim of his designs. In Ethiopia today, one can arguably say Meles is just as much a prisoner in Ethiopia as the people he throws into jail every day! He seems to have run out of ideas and sooner or later his current knee jerk methods of control will have no effect, and he and his henchmen will be up the creek without a paddle! If one stands aside and looks at the whole Ethiopian scenario, it will not be only Meles who will be in a predicament – Ethiopia itself could be facing a mighty implosion! Unfortunately nothing Meles does or the opposition does or the population does appear to be designed to avert such a catastrophe! Yet everybody wants a better future! Yet Meles thinks by keeping company of powerful allies and by bribing a few people or nations with real estates and money, somehow he will succeed enslaving Ethiopia for the rest of his life! Yet the opposition parties by knocking each other down at every turn and by saying some prayer, things will work for them and against everybody else! Yet a nation of 80 million people have decided to just let it roll while the Almighty makes His decision to come down and deliver Ethiopia from the Woyane! The truth is, nothing will change this catastrophic path unless All Ethiopians, I mean ALL ETHIOPIANS come together and chart Ethiopia’s destiny together and this must, emphatically, include TPLF/EPRDF!
Here are my thoughts about what TPLF/EPRDF should do:
Ordinary membership: When the current TPLF/EPRDF regime falls the brunt of the disaster will hit you. Whether it is in fights, disease or starvation you will be the ones who will suffer most. Don’t just follow the current leadership who have lost their way sometime back. Get together, whether inside the country or outside, confront your leaders and demand that they seek reconciliation with the nation and the opposition so that the country turns away from this catastrophic path, as a matter of urgency! Join hands with your fellow Ethiopians everywhere and protest against injustice, on May 15-18!
To the lower level officers, local and regional leaders – I appeal to you to listen to the plight of your people and Ethiopia! Share with your national leaders the pains and fears of your communities and advice your leaders to urgently change their approach to governance for the sake of all.
To the national TPLF/EPRDF: I advise you to look back to the strategies you have pursued over the last 17 years and here are some examples:
(a) You have, under the pretext of giving people regional autonomy, divided people against each other along ethnic and regional lines. After 17 years people have no autonomy and it has now dawned on them that the whole scheme was to facilitate your divide and rule policy!
(b) You have used extra-judicial killings of innocent people or those who opposed your policies as the means of maintaining power in Ethiopia. You must now realize that after using this technique for 17 years you have a whole nation that is hostile against you and that the bitterness is only getting worse!
(c) Ethiopia is now being surrounded by enemies to the north, to the east and to the west. These all came about as you flexed your muscle as a regional super-power! It must be humbling that after going into Somalia to complete a military task within a few weeks, you are still in Somalia 17 months later and the problem is getting worse and Ethiopians are losing lives in large numbers!
I can go on and on! The point I am making is this – you cannot continue playing with the lives of a nation of 80 million people for ever. While you have shown utter contempt for the people of Ethiopia, I am sure you have people and a place you care about! I am sure you must, from time to time, ask yourselves “How can we get out of this quagmire and bring peace about?” If you have not started asking this question then you must be less intelligent than you have been given credit for! Here is what I advise:
Dissolve the TPLF as an article of faith, and reassurance to Ethiopia
Get together with all sections of Ethiopian leadership – political, civic etc and form an internationally supervised National Reconciliation Committee
Accept the recommendations of the NRC’s with regards to amnesty and legal actions against individuals who may have committed criminal acts.
Accept the formation of an Administration of National Unity.
This is the only path that can lead to the safety of all Ethiopians and justice for all involved with the TPLF/EPRDF regime! If you care about Ethiopia and the future of Ethiopians you must do this. The kind of short cuts, grafts, lies, fabrications, gratifications with foreign powers, and unjust treatment of Ethiopians will only lead to a slow but sure disintegration of Ethiopia and the entire Horn of Africa – if you have a modicum of sanity – that must concern you!
