An Ethiopian owned business in DC, which generated more than 700
million dollars in sales last year, is now large enough, in a rare
feat for immigrants from Africa, to attract the attention of
anti-trust regulators. And on the west coast, a brilliant Ethiopian
bridal designer, Amsale Aberra, has crowned her phenomenal success
with a new reality show, Amsale Girls. No blue-blooded American in the
designer world could aim higher.
The presence of Ethiopian Professors on the numerous campuses of
American universities is no less impressive. There are far more PhD
Professors in the US than Ethiopia; many of them in the challenging
fields of the hard sciences. And they are nothing like the archetypal
species of redundant immigrants. America can not do without them; even
in this time of the Great Recession.
Many of them have gone to the US in search of greener
pastures—respectable wages; reasonable career prospects; decent
schools for their children and, no less, pursuit of political and
social stability. A significant minority, many of them in the social
sciences, however, are there for political reasons. And perhaps no one
represents this genre better than renowned Professor Messay Kebede,
whose thoughtful commentaries have long been important contributions
to public discourse.
Twenty years ago, Messay, who has a PhD from the University of
Grenoble in France, was chairman of the department of philosophy at
Addis Ababa University. Two years after the advent of the EPRDF to
power, however, he was callously dismissed from his position for
political reasons. But the dismissal inevitably turned out to be more
a loss to the AAU than Messay, who went on to thrive at the University
of Dayton in the US.
But like all reluctant exiles his passion for his home country, the
forbidden fruit, so to speak, has increased with distance. Like
millions of his fellow citizens he most probably patiently harbored
hopes for revolution against Ethiopia’s new tyrants for years, but was
then unexpectedly inspired by the magical possibility of peaceful
transformation in 2005, and was then suddenly beset by the collective
plunge to despair and disappointment after 2007. Meanwhile, twenty
years come to pass.
And after some reflection Messay sees an entrenched stalemate for all
sides. Thus his latest piece, a manifesto, as he calls it, Meles’s
Political Dilemma and the Developmental State: Dead-Ends and Exit, is
“not only (an analysis of) the problems of Ethiopia, but also (an
attempt ) to approach them from the perspective of the best way out
for everybody.” And a sincere and predictably brilliant treatise
ensues.
The gist of his manifesto, however, hinges perilously on the premise
that, “the birth of democratic states from an evolution of
authoritarian regimes is no less a historical trend than the
establishment of democracies as a result of the violent overthrow of
authoritarianism.” And as examples, he cites, “Asian countries that
applied the formula of the developmental state, but also of other
countries, such as Turkey, Spain, Brazil, Chile, etc.”
However, not a single example is in Africa, where the more relevant
examples for Ethiopia are and, as Hillary Clinton noted in her recent
speech to the AU, more than half the countries have become successful
multi-party constitutional democracies over the past two decades.
But most importantly, have the countries mentioned by Messay indeed
evolved organically into democratic societies from an authoritarian
past?
The Asian countries alluded to by Messay are obviously the Tiger
countries, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, and perhaps
the Tiger Cub countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and
Thailand.
The first democratic revolution was not in the most advanced Tiger
country, as any organic evolution would have entailed, but in the
least developed Tiger Cub country, the Philippines. Serious
demonstrations in support of democracy took place as early as 1983,
well before the economic malaise that was to grip the Philippines
after the assassination of Ninoy Aquino. The initial impetus was not
economic hardship but democratic aspiration. There was no evolution
here. This was a popular revolution that was to eventually inspire not
only Asia but also, in a stroke of luck to humanity, Eastern
Europeans. The rest, as they say, is history.
The most advanced Tiger country, Singapore, is still classified as
“partly free” by Freedom House, and “hybrid regime,” which roughly
means the same thing, by the Economist magazine. Even with a 43,117
dollars annual Per Capita income, which is higher than those of even
most west European countries, the evolution to democracy has yet to
show any sign of life. The reason, if there is any, begs an
explanation from evolutionary theorists. The middle income threshold
passed decades ago.
If there was ever any correlation between development and evolution to
democracy, Hong Kong, the second richest Tiger, would have been a
hotbed of democratic activism in China after 1997. Not so in reality,
though. The dominant sentiment is submission to mainland norms rather
than a push to expand freedoms to the hinterland.
There was no evolution in South Korea either. The South Koreans were
inspired by the Filipino people’s revolution in 1986, much as
Egyptians were by Tunisians, and months later hundreds of thousands of
them overwhelmed the streets. The military had to meekly submit to
popular will. There was no, to use Messay’s words, natural “transition
from authoritarianism to democracy.” This was a domino effect from the
Filipino revolution.
In Taiwan, the poorest Tiger country, it was also the Filipino
revolution that tipped the balance in favor of democracy. Months after
the Filipino revolution and at about the same time as protests were
shaking South Korea, martial law was preemptively revoked by the
authorities. This was about hope being suddenly ignited in Asia,
thanks to the Filipinos. Three decades later, this time squarely in
the age of Satellite television, the same hope was triggered in the
Middle East by Tunisia.
Indonesia, the biggest Tiger cub country, has become democratic long
before the tenets of the developmental state were ever realized. But
Malaysia, the most advanced Tiger cub country and whose per capita
income is more than 2 times that of Indonesia, is still only “partly
free.” Thailand, whose per capita income is about half of that of
Malaysia, is as free as Indonesia.
Even granted that there was no revolution in Spain, there was neither
evolution, too. The fascist state was dismantled wholesale after the
death of Franco. It was a thoroughly new beginning for Spain. Brazil
and Chile had military governments, as did many countries in South
America. The collapse of the Soviet Union explains the transition to
democracy in that part of the world, not evolution.
Only Turkey remains. And admittedly there is continuity and evolution
in the Turkish case. But given the unique history and experiences of
Turkey, the relevance for Ethiopia would be far-fetched. Perhaps it is
the Middle East that has more to learn from Turkey than Africa.
The “historical evolution” is simply not as widespread as Messay has
implied. Where it exists the relevance to Africa is at best
contentious.
But this is not the most serious flaw in Messay’s proposition. Rather,
the error lies in the presumption that the demand for democracy from
the grassroots is weak enough to be tempered by a “grand coalition of
elites.” It is not. There is real pressure for democracy from the
public, in Ethiopia and elsewhere. This is why democracy is a realty
in more than half of the countries in Africa. This is why there was
revolution in Egypt and protests refuse to die out in Syria. A
reductionist view of politics as a dialogue between elites is at best
wrong. The relevance of any elite, to use Messay’s own words, which is
“firmly anchored in the opposition camp,” is only to the extent that
it is able to articulate the needs and aspiration of the people.
And the message from the grassroots is that the EPRDF must go. No
party must be in power for twenty years. There is no room for a “grand
coalition of elites”, however well intentioned the suggestion may be.
Ethiopia needs a clean, peaceful break from the past. And if this
could somehow be negotiated as it was in South Africa, so be it. It
must in fact be given precedence. The alternative is at best
frightening, and despite appearances, given the un-sustainability of
the status-quo, inevitable.
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