This is no news to the Ethiopian people, though the international community can have a clue as what is in store should the ruling party feels challenged come election day. In the last 14 years or so, the Ethiopian people have witnessed the Prime Minister violate and change, the law of the land authored by himself or issue one in an instant to sustain his power, or ward of imagined or real threat against it. Custom-made laws were enacted overnight to imprison political opponents and the courts were made a joke of the century, as they were turned in to kangaroo courts where the police dictate the fate of the prisoner. One stark example of power hunger by the Prime Minster is the commission he created to fight “corruption”. Of the myriad prominent business and political personalities, imprisoned and harassed by this commission, not even a single individual comes from the Prime Minister’s camp. A careful scrutiny will show that all of the victims are either considered critical or associated to those considered critical of the governments policies, especially the Prime Minister’s Eritrea sickness. Now, mind you, corruption in Ethiopia is rampant and is considered one of the most corrupt systems there is today. And yet this commission implicates none of Prime Minister’s allies. We all know his Ministers are among the wealthiest in the country and many of them own villas in the range of $150,000-$250,000 (USD). With a salary a minister earns in Ethiopia, how on earth is one to own a piece of real estate so expensive even by western standards. All I am trying to say is that the government will not shy away from doing what ever it takes to stay in power.

The opposition is also trying hard to establish it self as a viable force given its vast disadvantages, for the playing field is far from being fair and level to both parties. Despite this disposition, the opposition could have done better in terms of coordinating its efforts and could have gained much strength from a united platform. Still I believe it has failed so far to capitalize on the governments Achilles’ hill, the issue of Ethiopia’s Red sea littoral and the border issue. The opposition is yet to articulate and tell the Ethiopian people how this government, primarily it’s Prime Minister betrayed Ethiopia and relentlessly worked to have it land- locked, made every thing possible for Shaebia wage war against it, sabotaged every effort made to expel Shaebia from the territories it occupied and saved it from it’s eminent destruction, giving it a lease of life as a perpetual threat to Ethiopia’s security and national interest, and finally, worked to hand over Ethiopia’s territories to Eritrea, including by passing crucial documents which support Eritrea’s claims, as the EEBC stated in its ruling, while on the other hand excluding important documents from Ethiopia’s legal presentation.(as could be deduced from the recent testimony of H.E. Leul Ras Mengesha Seyoum)

More than any thing else this coming election should be but about sovereignty. The relevance of the opposition should also be seen mainly from that perspective. I have read and heard some people argue about the content and relevance of the programs and issues presented by the various opposition groups. There are some who are disappointed by the opposition and resigned to hope that some how the ruling party matures and brings change. And still there are some who are uncomfortable with some rhetoric form some quarters in the opposition, and therefore espouse the belief “the devil you know is better…” My argument is, at this point in time the role of the opposition should be seen primarily, in light of the issue of sovereignty and the prospect of overall change in the long run, rather than on the merit of the current program the opposition presents, for the following reasons:

1. Even if the opposition did not win, it will still be a great advantage to the country, should it emerge with a substantial numbers of seats in parliament and emerge as a strong opposition. This is due to the fact that it will at least act as a deterrent to the regime’s disastrous habits of compromising the country’s sovereignty. On the other hand, should Meles emerge with an overwhelming seats, there is no doubt in my mind that he will declare as having won the mandate from the people and proceed to hand over our territories to Eritrea and close the Assab issue once and for ever. This is the anticipation of the West and where else would they get this idea except from the horse’s mouth. The same anticipation prevails in Shaebia land as well.If there are people who still think otherwise and believe he has changed his stance, they are in for a big disappointment. It is tantamount to expect some one to be cured from drug addiction without undergoing a rigorous rehabilitation and therapeutic program. I am not aware of Meles undergoing through such therapy, as far as Eritrea is concerned.

2. On the other hand, though remote, should the opposition win, we will still be in a better position overall, even if we were not satisfied with their programs. First and for most, we stand to secure the country’s territorial integrity including it’s legitimate access to the sea. 2nd we will have a better leverage to bring change and have a better chance of communicating with and influencing them, as opposed to dealing with an entrenched power hungry totalitarian system. And again, in the likely scenario, where the ruling party maintains power, lots of damage control could be achieved if the opposition emerged with a sizable minority slot in the parliament, as I mentioned above, as we could use them as a pressure group and as bridge to the movement of change.

3. There is good reason to state that Meles cannot bring democracy to Ethiopia, and that is without even mentioning his anti-Ethiopian track record, just putting him in equal footing with his peers. I have yet to see a dictator bring democracy to a country. As far as Meles, using his cronies, continues to amass power, we will continue to receive a dose of this and a dose of that cosmetic changes in the likes of “Abiotawi Democracy” and the famous “Gimgema”, an Orwelian nightmare. Had we invested the time, energy and money spent on 14 years of Gimgema, on well intentioned development program, it would not be exaggerating to say that, on the minimum we should be able to feed the 12 Million or so Ethiopians who ilk life at the border between life and death. One of the main reasons dictators dread change is that change entails accountability. They are afraid that all the sins they committed against society would be exposed and see the light of the day.

4. We need to achieve an accelerated development, a growth of almost double digit (I mean real GDP growth as opposed to Meles’ growth statistics where we are told have been growing 6% on the average…and yet WB/IMF books show we are still stuck at $100.00 per head) if we are to bring real food self-sufficiency and economic and social stability. A review of how other countries like those in SE Asia succeeded growing so fast show us a very critical factor we are either missing or missed to utilize. We will clearly see that more than any thing else, nationalism or national cohesion played a crucial role. The most successful people such as Carnegie and Napoleon Hill, to name two, also tell us that people achieve most when their motivation is the collective good rather tan the self. There is no doubt that there is enough nationalism in Ethiopia, despite the onslaught of the Derg and EPRDF for the last 30 years. But nation wide mobilization is required. Meles is a polarizing Machiavellian and not a unifier. Here as well, I believe we fare better with the opposition either being in the lead should they win or at least as balancing factor as a minority party if they gather substantial seats. There is no doubt there is a lot they need to learn, but they should be in better position. At least they are not coming through the gun and we don’t see the arrogance embedded in Meles/EPRDF.