ADDIS ABABA (May 6) –
A plot is defined as “a plan made in secret”, but even by the usual shadowy nature of such matters around Africa, the recent conspiracy to overthrow the Ethiopian government has been hard to see clearly.
The story broke two weeks ago when the government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said 40 men had been arrested for planning a coup after police found guns, bombs and “written strategies” at their homes. But a few days later the government communication office was asking journalists not to use the word coup anymore. The “desperados”, they said, had planned to “overthrow” the government by using assassinations and bombings to create enough chaos to get supporters on the streets to topple the government.
The sensitivity surrounding the language and the details of what was actually going on highlight the caution that still exists in sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country after a disputed 2005 election ended with police and soldiers killing about 200 opposition street protesters who were marching on government buildings.
Understandably, many Ethiopians are sceptical that people would take to the streets again. And others question whether the will is still there to march against a government that most analysts consider the most effective the desperately poor nation Horn of Africa has ever had.
The suspected involvement of an Ethiopian-American university professor was a detail that caught the interest of the international media. Berhanu Nega, who called the accusation “baseless”, was elected mayor of Addis Ababa after the 2005 poll but was imprisoned along with about 100 other opposition members when the government accused them of orchestrating the street protests.
He was released in 2007 after a pardon deal and soon fled to America, where he teaches economics at Bucknell University in Philadelphia. Another leader released as part of that pardon, 36-year-old former judge Birtukan Mideksa, was rearrested last year after the government said she violated the terms of the pardon. She remains in prison.
Ethiopians love to talk politics in the bars and cafes of capital Addis Ababa — often in very hushed tones, which is perhaps a hangover from 17 years of brutally repressive communist rule that ended when the rebel group led by Meles came to power in 1991.
And the “coup” is now the subject of those whispered chats. Some say there was a real threat to the government that came from Berhanu and his allies in the sizeable and vocal diaspora. Some say there was dissent in the military and Berhanu simply provided a convenient excuse for the government to move against that in its early stages.
And one opposition leader even told me that the government may have invented the coup plot so it could arrest potential politicians ahead of national elections due in 2010.
“Without third party verification I can’t believe there was a plot,” said Bulcha Demeksa, leader of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement.
Amnesty International now says the government is arresting more people in secret.
This intriguing story will surely develop over the weeks to come as the Ethiopian government has said it is preparing evidence that will be presented before “an independent judiciary” and has promised the 40 accused will appear in an Addis Ababa court next week.
Addis Ababa (May 6) –
Ethiopia’s next national election is a year away, but tensions are already increasing. At least two opposition politicians have recently been jailed, both possibly facing life in prison, and security forces have arrested dozens of others, accusing them of plotting against the government. Both government and opposition leaders are expressing concern about the potential for election-related violence.
No Ethiopian needs reminding about the horrors that followed the disputed 2005 election. Nearly 200 protesters killed in the streets by security forces, more than 100 opposition leaders, arrested, convicted of treason and sentenced to life in prison before being pardoned.
When government spokesman Bereket Simon kicked off the 2010 election season, he said a top priority of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party would be preventing violence. “This election must be peaceful. Government must do whatever it takes to ensure that our election will be peaceful,” he said.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi warned that government forces would have little tolerance for street protests. “The 2005 experience was experience enough for anybody to be able to learn from, and so I’m sure our law enforcement entities will be much better prepared for any eventuality than they were in 2005, not only in terms of handling riots, but also in terms of deterring and preventing riots,” he said.
Opposition activists are equally concerned. It was their supporters that were killed in the streets four years ago. Many fear 2010 could be as bad or worse than 2005.
Already, several government opponents have been jailed. Among them, Birtukan Mideksa, a charismatic young former judge who was among those sentenced to life and then pardoned after the 2005 election.
Birtukan had been touted to be a potent force in the 2010 vote. But she was re-arrested and ordered to serve out her sentence after saying she had not asked for the pardon.
Another prominent member of Birtukan’s party, Melaku Teferra, was among 40 people accused last month of involvement in a coup plot directed by Berhanu Nega, who was elected mayor of Addis Ababa in 2005.
Berhanu and Melaku were also among those jailed for life after the last election. Melaku stayed in Ethiopia after being freed. Berhanu fled to the United States, where he teaches economics at a Pennsylvania university and heads a political group that advocates the overthrow of the Meles Zenawi government.
Merera Gudina is another political science professor who doubles as an opposition leader. Merera teaches at Addis Ababa University. His party is among eight opposition groups banding together in hopes of mounting a serious challenge to the ruling EPRDF.
Merera worries, however, that next year’s vote may turn into a replay of last year’s local and bi-elections, in which the EPRDF and its affiliates won all but three out of nearly 3.6 million seats being contested. Most opposition parties pulled out of the contest in advance, complaining the rules were written so only pro-government parties could win.
Merera says given that the EPRDF now controls all local administrations, this election will be a struggle to prevent Ethiopia from becoming a one-party state.
“Our role is… to make sure this government cannot rule without accepting the rules of multi-party democracy. We are in a struggle. This government is not ready for change, and this government is cheating left and right and its ultimate agenda is revolutionary democracy. We know all these things, and in fact people who were with (Prime Minister) Meles, who used to play those games and clearly know these games, are now with us,” he said.
Seeye Abraha Hagos is a former member of Prime Minister Meles’s inner circle. He was military commander of the guerrilla force that brought the Meles government to power. After a falling out with the government, he was convicted of corruption and spent several years in prison. But he is still popular among his former military colleagues
Seeye is now a member of the coalition of opposition groups know as the forum. He says the only ways of breaking Ethiopia’s long tradition of violence-plagued elections is to ensure opposition parties and their supporters know change is possible through the ballot box.
“There is always violent opposition in Ethiopia. Even if you take out the 2005 elections, there was violent opposition in this country. So if we are ever going to control violence in this country, the only way out is to chart a peaceful political transition. No peaceful elections, no peaceful political transfer of power would mean there will be continuous violence in this country, and this can take this country down the drain given our poverty,” he said.
A year before the May, 2010 election, Ethiopia displays all the outward signs of calm. Despite grinding poverty, frequent power cuts, and a severe foreign exchange shortage that has seen imported goods disappear from stores, there is little evidence of the country’s violent past.
But opposition leaders and political analysts caution that the outward appearance masks a deep-seated longing among Ethiopians for freedom of political expression. Former defense minister Seeye Abraha likens the country to a dormant volcano. It might look calm, but even a small disturbance could set it off.
