There are major problems with any effort, by anybody, to influence the conduct of a national election in Ethiopia as long as Meles is wielding power! Meles and his protégés see themselves as being in mortal danger immediately someone else takes power from them, and I have explained the reasons in the previous article! Hence, however he may wish to find a solution to the current impasse, the first consideration will be his safety and the safety of those who misruled Ethiopia along-side him for the last two decades! I don’t think anybody deliberating with him today has the authority or the wherewithal to guarantee Meles’ safety. I doubt if they even appreciate Meles’ predicament regarding an EXIT STRATEGY for himself and his retinue!
Anyhow, the problems of Ethiopia today are multifaceted and, frankly, Meles is only a small part of it. By that I mean, if Meles leaves today, the depth of Ethiopia’s crisis will be such that many of us will wish he stayed a bit longer to allow us time to come to grips with it! I am not talking from the view point of any inside knowledge of Meles’ regime – my predictions are based on the history of similar beats! I shall enumerate some of the facets of Ethiopia’ problems, the list is far from exhaustive and I am sure you can add your own:
The Regime problems: It is an illegitimate regime which came to power by force, and has been repressing the population for the last 19 years. It created a constitutional havoc whereby regions and peoples are turned against each other leading to conflicts and dislocations throughout the country. It has set up a tribal administration where one ethic group dominates every sphere of public life. It has participated actively in the dismemberment of Ethiopia in the effort to secure its own survival and recently has been selling Ethiopia’s arable land to the highest foreign bidders while Ethiopians starve for lack of land to till! Ethiopia’s wealth has been used to produce millionaires and billionaires while the country is perpetually starving. Many innocent people’s lives have lost directly or indirectly as the result of Meles’ governance! Meles’ crime against Ethiopia and its people is so huge that no amount of forgiveness and apologies from his former victims, now working with him, will be sufficient even to begin to address. Neither Meles nor those who are negotiating with him have the mandate of Ethiopia’s populace! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
The Opposition Problems: The opposition has become a fascinating phenomenon in its own right! The come in many shapes and forms: There are true opposition leaders who will die for the ordinary Ethiopians irrespective of their backgroud, if they have to. These are dead, in jail or in exile. These are Meles’ nightmare, whether they are dead or alive! Hence, today, Meles nemesis is the frail lady whom he has locked up in a dungeon! If you are not dead, in jail or in exile, it means Meles sees you as harmless little toy to play with! Then there are those who participated in Meles’ political process either in the belief that they would change politics in Ethiopia by participating in Meles’ Parliament, or for other reasons. They are now largely discredited, and many feel their fates are somehow tied to that of Meles! There are those whose sole goals are to take away their regions and declare independence. No dialogue is possible here as matters stand. There are tribalists, very much like the current thugs in power, who masquerade as national movements. Their activities are being watched by those who are sharp enough to dicern, in utter shock, disbelief and disgust! So, the sad fact is that there is no meaningful, or credible opposition out there now to pull together the country and help bring about justice! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
Population Problems: The current tribal regime, for its own survival worked hard to create distrust and hostility between the different sections of Ethiopian population. They split people against each other along tribal, religious, and regional lines. They often actively joined sides or looked the other way as neighboring tribes or religious entities slaughtered each other! The regime cynically manipulated and turned people of the same identity against each other by giving perks such as businesses and opportunities to some, while the majority suffered. So, the population has major problems of identity, and trust is sorely lacking! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
Regional Hostilities: The regime dismembered Ethiopia quite early in their misrule, to ensure their survival, rendering the country landlocked! They invaded Somalia, a historical enemy Ethiopia, and left behind chaos in which terrorists are breeding like never before. Sudan, a possible home for Meles’ when the day of departure arrives, is just carving up Ethiopian territories at will, while the poor Ethiopian farmers are uprooted from their ancestral homes! Egypt would give anything to keep Ethiopia perpetually in civil strife so that it can peacefully feed itself on the water of the Nile while Ethiopians die of starvation because of lack of water! At the slightest opportunities all these entities would pounce on Ethiopia and wipe out what is left of it in a blink! Wining and dining by an illegitimate administration with discredited opposition will not fix this malady! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
Natural calamities: In spite of all the natural resources, the policies of the current regime has kept Ethiopians poor and perennially starving. We are told that famine as harsh of 1980s is looming on the horizon. Disease and poverty are ravishing the vulnerable. Wining and dining by an illegitimate administration with discredited opposition will not fix this malady! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
Global Problems: The Suez Canal and the Red Sea make the region a vitally important international entity because of large Maritime traffic. There are Somali pirates terrorizing sea-farers, and Somalia is breeding fundamentalists which threaten peace and stability of the region and the world! In the absence of viable alterantive to Meles, the foreign countries will try to work with the current regime, until such a time that Ethiopians stand up and bring forth true representatives of their nation. Wining and dining by an illegitimate administration with discredited opposition will not fix this malady! This needs full participation of Free Ethiopians to fix!
A Possible Road-Map: The basic requirements of any effort to get Ethiopia out the current predicaments must include, but not limited to: Protection of Ethiopia’s sovereignty; Protecting all Ethiopian citizen, whichever political side they are on; setting up of a Reconciliation and Amnesty Commission under the auspices of the UN to work-out the ways and means of handling the atrocities of the last two decades; creation of an Administration of National Unity; Draft constitution by the ANU; and finally Free, Fair and Democratic Elections.
Such an approach will allay the fears of those in the current administration so that they may get out of this trap they have built around themselves, with guarantees of protection under the law; those in the opposition may get their acts together and work for the betterment of the country and its people its peoples while being guided by the wishes of the people; the people will have confidence in the process and the leadership since they will have a say in what is done in their name; the hostilities of the neighbors may be mitigated by the mere departure of the hostile regime and the knowledge that Ethiopians are standing together to defend the integrity of their nation; and the international community will have a democratic partner in Ethiopia with whom to work for the betterment of Ethiopia and the whole region.
The fundamentals of such a road-map can be put in place by utilizing civic organizations such as Solidarity Movement for New Ethiopia (SMNE) whose leader, Obang Metho has been working tirelessly to bring all sections of Ethiopians under one roof to find a way forward. There are other organizations which can come together and start working on the frameworks of such an approach, rather than competing against each other, a fact that has been the main reason why Meles is still in power in Ethiopia today!
