LONDON – There is high expectation the Ethiopian government may pass a guilty verdict over the more than 100 opposition leaders and journalists though sentencing may not take place before the mid-2007, the Economist Intelligence Unit has disclosed.
“The ongoing trial of more
than 100 people, including the leadership of the Coalition for Unity and
Democracy (CUD), as well as journalists, academics and members of civil
society organisations, will continue to stoke political tension and fuel
uncertainty. The defendants are accused of a range of offences, including
treason, genocide and fomenting a coup,” according to the 2007 report.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has refused all requests for the prisoners’ release on bail, insisting the legal process must take its course, the Economist‘s Intellingence Unit said.
Following is an excerpt from the 2007 report of the Economist Intelligence Unit:
“At present, the expectation is that most of the prisoners
will be found guilty and sentenced to serve time in jail. Under this scenario, the
best case in terms of maintaining political stability would be if most were
quietly released after serving a few years of their sentence, once their political
powers had been drained. The most pressing concern is that there are a number
of elderly defendants with pre-existing medical conditions and there is a risk
that some will not survive internment, which could spark a new bout of
political unrest,” the report said.
Despite this, the government has managed to negotiate a working agreement with the
bulk of the parliamentary opposition. The EPRDF signed deals in June 2006
with the two main opposition blocs covering parliamentary procedure and
rules of conduct, and these represent an important step towards reconciliation.
Prior to the deal, in April, the rump CUD formed a new political entity, the
Coalition of Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP), which has been registered
and accepted by the electoral authorities. The rump CUD (that is, the CUDP)
now appears to have completely broken with the imprisoned CUD leaders.
Parliament reconvened early in October after a three-month recess.
The activities of opposition forces outside parliament will remain equally
important during the forecast period. In a key development, the more radical
elements of the original CUD, which have refused to join parliament (in line
with the imprisoned leaders’ wishes), formed a new opposition grouping in
May. This grouping, named the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD),
was formed with outlawed opposition formations’ such as the Oromo
Liberation Front and the Ogaden National Liberation Front that have waged a
low-level war against the government for over a decade. The AFD is likely to be
a cause of some disruption, as some elements will attempt to scale up the
armed conflict, although their capacity to do so will remain limited.
Political Scene
The final official report of the commission of inquiry into post-election
violence in June and November 2005 admits that 199 people were killed (including six
policemen), mainly as a result of gunfire, and that about 30,000 people were
arrested. This compares with the previous official death toll of about 60, and an
unofficial toll, cited by the media, of about 85. The report was commissioned by
parliament in January 2006, and reported to parliament in October, several
months later than planned.
In a controversial judgment, however, the report
absolves the security forces of using “excessive force”, describing their actions as
broadly appropriate to the needs of defending national security. The report
nevertheless concedes that some human rights abuses took place (without
elaborating) and recommends that security forces receive proper riot training.
According to the former deputy chairman of the inquiry, Judge Wolde-Michael
Meshesha, the inquiry’s final report was a watered down version of the
original draft. The jurist fled to the UK in October 2006 and leaked a copy of
the draft version to the press, citing pressure to amend the draft, including death
threats, as his reason for fleeing. The death toll was the same in both reports,
but the draft accused the security forces of using excessive force (by an
8-2 margin, in a vote among inquiry members), whereas the final version did
not. The original chairman of the inquiry, Firehiwot Samuel, has also left the
country, and a third member of the inquiry may have followed. Only five of
the original ten-strong team were present at the unveiling of the official report,
although the new chairman, Mekonnen Disasa, defended the findings.
The opposition in parliament, including the United Ethiopian Democratic Front
(UEDF), the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) and the Coalition
for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) rejected the report’s conclusion that
excessive force was not used. Opposition officials were also angry about being
denied access to the report before it was published, as had been promised. One
positive aspect to the affair is that the report was subject to a debate and vote in
parliament – although the government has a comfortable majority and acceptance
of the report’s findings by parliament was never in doubt: a motion
to reject parts of the report was voted down by 276 votes to 116.
A senior judge, Teshale Aberra, the president of the Oromo Supreme Court, fled
to the UK in late October 2006 seeking asylum, citing threats and harassment.
He also accused the government of being responsible for “thousands” of killings
since coming to power in 1991, especially in Oromia, and talked of a “systematic
massacre”.
Mr Teshale further claimed that illegal detention and torture were
commonplace, and that the government was currently engaged in appointing a
swathe of friendly judges. The judge’s flight is the latest in a series to have taken
place in recent months, including from the military and the diplomatic service.
More recently, Getachew Jigi, a member of
the OFDM executive committee and an opposition member of parliament, left
the country in November alleging a “reign of terror” and moves towards
dictatorship. The secretary-general of the Council of People’s Representatives,
Foto Bedane, is also reported to have fled.
