Editor’s Note – Meles Zenawi, who has been in power for 18 years and says he wants to step down, is to get started “public campaigns” that will oppose his self-proposed ‘resignation,’ – the opposition Voice of Ginbot 7 disclosed on Thursday.
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – Ethiopia’s Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi wants to step down after 18 years running
sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country.
But Meles says he is “bored” of questions about this, and
will only repeat he needs the permission of his ruling party
before he can leave.
So when might he go? And what will happen if he does?
Here are some possible scenarios:
MELES GOES AT SEPTEMBER PARTY CONGRESS?
* Unlikely. The 54-year-old needs the permission of the
ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)
party’s annual September congress before he can move aside. But
it is doubtful he will ask for its blessing this year, analysts
say. And, even if he did, they probably would not accept it a
year before Ethiopia has its next national election due in June
2010.
OPPOSITION WIN 2010 ELECTIONS, MELES LOSES POWER?
* This would be a shock. The 2005 elections — touted as
Ethiopia’s first truly democratic poll — ended in violence when
Meles claimed victory, the opposition shouted fraud and about
200 protestors were killed by police and soldiers. Meles said
they were trying to march on state buildings and topple him.
* More than 100 opposition leaders, journalists and aid
workers were jailed after the government blamed them for
orchestrating the violence. Despite the prisoners’ release in a
2007 pardon deal, the opposition has remained weak ever since.
* They say that is because the government harasses them.
Meles denies that and says the opposition criticises the
government to ruin its image and provoke the rich world into
cutting the aid on which the desperately poor country relies.
* Whatever the truth, the EPRDF is likely to win a big
victory in the 2010 election, analysts say. This would mean a
continuation of economic policies that brought increased growth
through foreign investment and commodity exports before the
global recession undid much of that progress. A ruling party
triumph would probably please Western powers and investors who
are used to doing business with Meles and his ministers.
* If the opposition wins, the future will be uncertain for
one of Africa’s biggest potential markets. With no obvious
alternative prime minister, potential investors might play
wait-and-see. Foreign powers and international lenders like the
IMF and the World Bank would jostle for policy influence.
MELES WINS IN 2010, OPPOSITION CRY FOUL?
* There are fears of a repeat of violence if Meles wins the
next election and the opposition protest again. But any
allegations of fraud in 2010 would be harder to believe than
last time, analysts say. If the opposition parties go into the
election as weak as they are now, they may find it difficult to
convince Ethiopians and the world to support their claims.
* If the opposition was to strengthen before 2010 and
credibly claim fraud, people would listen. After the violence of
2005, some countries withdrew aid. But — worried about hurting
some of the world’s most vulnerable people — they quickly
reinstated it. Ethiopia is the key U.S. ally in the volatile
Horn of Africa region and sent troops into neighbouring Somalia
in 2006 to oust an Islamist group who controlled the country.
* But despite Ethiopia’s close relations with the West,
allegations of fraud or violence would be more difficult for the
international community to take a second time and the country
could see its aid slashed, plunging it deeper into poverty.
EPRDF WINS ELECTION, NO VIOLENCE, MELES RESIGNS?
* This is the most likely scenario. The weakened opposition
will not be a serious threat at the next polls, most people
believe. Meles will probably resign within two years and be
replaced by a party loyalist who will continue his domestic,
economic and foreign policies.
* Stepping down mid-term would raise interesting questions.
The EPRDF is made up of four parties, each representing one of
Ethiopia’s biggest ethnicities. The Tigryan ethnic group — of
which Meles is a member — make up only 6 percent of the
population but dominate the country’s political and military
establishment. With Meles gone, the ethnic Amharas — who have
traditionally made up the Ethiopian elite — will argue one of
their party members should take over. The country’s most
populous ethnic group, the Oromos, who have never held power,
will offer a compromise candidate.
* Bearing this ethnic tension in mind, the most important
task for whoever takes over will be maintaining party unity. If
the ruling party broke up, Ethiopia’s future would become
uncertain and investors and the international community may
worry.
MELES SERVES ANOTHER 5-YEAR TERM, RUNS AGAIN?
* Some Ethiopians are claiming Meles saying he wants to
resign is a ruse to make him appear more democratic than he is.
If he vacates the top chair, he would be the first Ethiopian
leader in modern history not to have been violently overthrown.
* But most analysts say the much-repeated intention is
probably genuine. Meles is unlikely to serve another five years
and even less likely to ever run again beyond that. If he were
to continue indefinitely, opposition would grow and some may
seek to overthrow the EPRDF.
A group of 32 mostly former and serving military officers
are on trial in Addis Ababa accused of attempting to oust Meles.
* If he gives up power soon, analysts say he will leave a
legacy of economic progress and improved relations with the
West, marred by accusations of human rights abuses.
