The Ethiopian opposition: On keeping the momentum

June 30, 2013

For the last two decades, the ruling party, EPRDF, set the agendas for political
discourse, putting the opposition to a clear defensive position. The former drafted,
ratified, and implemented rulings and laws solo several of which are calculated to
contain and neutralize any form of public dissent. The opposition has had nothing to
do about it but to mildly shout that the political playing field was and is too narrow to
play. Discourses related to national economics and development were/are also the
exclusive business of the ruling party. Moreover, it was/is the EPRDF only who re-
defined/s our border lines and our relations to neighboring countries. The opposition
reacted in some forms to such maneuverings. Generally, one could safely argue that
the EPRDF and the opposition have respectively assumed their offensive and
defensive roles for years.

Very recently, we happen to witness bits and pieces of developments that conjointly
point to a different scenario where the opposition seem to manage to put their
agendas on table. The public demonstrations called up on by the Blue Party last May
just broke the silence. Although the event itself was neither an outcome nor an
output, it was found significant in several ways. Several writers excellently lamented
its implications and I also managed to outline some of the important lessons learnt
from it in my May short commentary (http://tekluabate.blogspot.no/2013/06/keep-rallies-
up.html#more). Stated simply, the rallies could be considered an ice breaker; they
effectively teared down that big blanket of fear and silence from the Ethiopian
political horizon.

And that spirit of claiming natural and constitutional rights does not stop there. The
Blues vow to come back to the streets again and again until their demands are met.
They sort of have given the ruling party a three-month grace period to act. Moreover,
the Unity for Democracy and Justice party (Andinet) are also coming to the fore
again. They are planning rallies that are to take place in regional towns first and
finally in Addis Ababa. Other parties and fronts might join hands and make serious
and series of demonstrations that could put EPRDF at the defensive. If the regime
does not effectively respond to the demands, the sizable rallies could have huge
potential for bringing a massive and peaceful popular uprising that could be lethal to
the ruling party. In a way, the refreshed demands of the opposition seem to appear a
nuisance to the ruling party- they tend to defend this time around.

Before the opposition reach at that stage, a stage where they clearly and in a
sustained way take the offensive position, they must identify and deal with a whole
array of challenges and hurdles put forward by the EPRDF. The power of the
opposition to maneuver and to bring their efforts in scale would define the trajectory
of Ethiopian politics for years to come. The opposition (here I refer to those based in
Ethiopia) need to regularly and well ahead of time reflect up on a host of challenges
and issues.

Several writers created possible scenarios and offered recommendations. To me, if
the opposition adequately, timely, in a sustained way, and at scale do or meet the
following, success (genuine democratic governance, freedom, the rule of law, and
justice) is very likely to come. The recommendations below relate to the content and
method of peaceful struggle as well as the nature of leadership deemed appropriate
for the time.

Injustice as the enemy

We know that the ruling party is behind the state of affairs wherein Ethiopia finds
itself since 1991. Still, the enemy of the Ethiopian people is not EPRDF/TPLF as such.
Any peaceful and meaningful political struggle must thus aim at combatting such real
enemies as injustice, corruption, killings, nepotism, random detention, persecution,
lack of freedom, backwardness, stagnation, unaccountability, and the like. If struggles
aim at EPRDF as an entity, there would not be any guarantee that we would have
democratic culture once the regime is gone. Plus, if struggles focus on the real
enemies, those in the EPRDF circle might feel that they are not singled out and hence
they might, after some time, decide to change their political lanes. This way, it is
possible to create a future where the opposition, EPRDF sympathizers and members,
and the general public live in peace and tranquility. This is what we could learn from
Nelson Mandela of South Africa, to forgive for the sake of cohesion and lasting
change. Fight to bring justice and freedom and not to liquidate a group.

National reconciliation

Yes, because of EPRDF’s policies and propaganda, we suffer a lot. We tend to look
through ethnic lines only. We fought each other several times and thousands are gone
forever. And many still languish in such earthly hells called Kaliti and maekellawi.
And many have left their country to escape from everything. Despite all these, the
opposition must tolerate and preach peaceful co-existence. Ethiopia should be home
not only to those who fight to bring change but also to those who are very responsible
for all the mess. That spirit of forgiveness must be at the core of any political struggle.
We cannot bring lasting peace by killing or persecuting the oppressors but by
forgiving them. Of course, those few at the top of the EPRDF power echelon might be
held accountable to their deeds through a free and fair justice system. But a national
reconciliation that includes all groups and parties and individuals is for sure a
panacea for solving every other problem. And this is not a tried and tired approach in
Ethiopia. The opposition could benefit if they consider this as an option.

Inclusiveness

Nearly all EPRDF seminars and conferences at home and in the Diaspora are
reserved for supporters and members. That created the gulf between the regime and
the populace in general. The opposition must be significantly different from the
ruling party in this regards, too. Reconciliations, workshops, conferences, seminars,
and other party moves must accommodate all. The youth, the elderly, the rural and
urban population, the educated, the business people, EPRDF members and
sympathizers, and the Ethiopian Diaspora need to be considered while planning,
implementing, and evaluating programs or projects. If struggles are dubbed peaceful,
there is nothing to hide from EPRDF people. By inviting them to opposition forums,
it is possible to show transparency and accountability and to enter in to discourse.
Let’s create that culture of debate as it is the opportunity to positively influence and
be influenced.

Practical and strategic

To win the hearts and minds of the people, the opposition need to focus on the now
and the future simultaneously. Problems and concerns include poverty and
starvation, corruption, nepotism, lack of freedom of all sorts, imprisonment, exodus
of the youth to the Arab world, scramble of our fertile lands by irresponsible
investors, forced eviction of people, our border lines and relation with neighbors and
internationally, and the like. The opposition must come up with their plans as to how
to solve all these bottlenecks. The people want to see smarter solutions that
outachieve EPRDF’s. Meaning, political struggle is as intellectual and discursive as it
is pragmatic. This of course requires quality leadership and resource pool.

Competent leadership

Leadership plays a crucial role in bringing change. Unfortunately, we happen to see
some of the most incompetent leaders in several of the political parties back home.
They are usually made leaders based on family ties, ethnic considerations, seniority,
and even gender. Some assumed leadership for decades and still claim that no one is
competent enough to replace them. Others seem to ‘own’ political parties through
infusing their private resources into party activities. They expect any decision to be
made in accordance with their tastes. These kinds of guys should be stopped
systematically. If the opposition aspire to succeed, they must make sure they are
being led by some of the most competent workforce. People who do not have the
knowledge, skill, know-how, and sincerity should not be allowed to enter the
leadership rank. As they would retard and at worst divide the struggle. Youngsters
must be recruited, trained, and given the opportunity to lead for a very fixed term.

Leadership contracts

Regularly but in a stable way changing leadership might work well in the Ethiopian
context for several reasons. One, it would discourage long-time rule and dictatorship.
Two, leading political parties cost a lot in terms of resources, time, energy, and other
sacrifices including imprisonment and persecution and prosecution. Changing
leadership regularly is tantamount to sharing the burden. Three, it would be a
challenge to the ruling party to jail and prosecute all the generations of leaders. Four,
it would send to the public a message that the opposition is governed by rules and
limits. Five, leaders would not have the energy and time to create their own personal
networks as they know that they would step down soon. Six, new leaders could
perform with all their energy and competence. Seventh, this formula will produce a
great number of experienced leaders in the end who could easily influence the public
at various levels.

Involve the people

Ideally, parties are created by the people to the people. But once leaders assume their
positions, the public is relegated to making financial contributions only. There is little
opportunity to the populace to get involved in decision making and usually lack the
means to ensure accountability and transparency of the leadership. To me, the people
must be educated to lead themselves. A political awareness program should be
created so that 1) people know their rights and obligations quite well, 2) people could
defend themselves against injustices of all sorts, 3) people could continue the struggle
even when their leaders are jailed or persecuted, 4) the governing party could not
imprison the entire or majority of the population but to surrender to their demands
or to step down. In fact, the opposition should work a lot on this as it is the absolutely
powerful way of bringing, sustaining, and scaling up democratic governance and real
changes in economic and social realms. This is the least tried approach in Ethiopia.

Democratic practices

Some parties complain that EPRDF is undemocratic and oppressive. This is true but
they themselves are equally undemocratic and oppressive. The way they elect their
members and leaders, the way they make decisions, and the way they relate to their
members is hardly democratic most of the time. Several of the divisions among the
parties could partly be explained by this cause. If they could not govern their small
parties well, how are they going to rule over the great nation? Democratic culture
seems to be checked by egoistic tendencies, ignorance, and stubbornness. It is hard to
bring meaningful change if parties remain secretive, divisive, and autocratic.

Stay collaborative

Inter-party collaborations are crucial as they could ensure resource and spirit
mergers. We happened to see fronts and forums that membered several political
parties. But they did not bring the struggle to the next higher level. If lasting and
inclusive change is to be brought about, there must be a genuine and lasting alliance
of some sort. We observed that some parties were reluctant to officially recognize or
endorse the rallies called by the Blue Party. Others finally decided to join hands.
Although each party has its own plans and resources, failing to collaborate with other
parties on issues of national importance is simply unexplainable. Parties could
identify areas (e.g. staging rallies) where they could work together while staying near
and dear to their own routines.

Networking

Peaceful struggle requires resources, patience, courage, and networking. Those
parties back home need to jointly develop projects and communicate them to the
Ethiopian Diaspora for support including possible funding. Supporting and funding
joint projects is more efficient and easier than supporting each and every political
party. Information and communication technologies could be used to reach the
otherwise unreachable.

Final notes

I tried to highlight the issues and challenges the Ethiopian opposition need to deal
with if they aspire to bring meaningful political change. I want to make several points
in relation to that though. One, I am not saying that what I presented is the only
magic formulas for success. Two, I am not claiming that the opposition do not know
or enact them at all; am focusing on scalability and sustainability. Three, some of the
points raised have sharp double-edges: they require change both from the opposition
and the ruling party. Four, some of them require making sacrifices of some sort from
opposition leaders and supporters. Fifth, some of them require time and investment
before seeing any result. Lastly, one could be fairly certain that meeting the
aforementioned qualities could bring genuine and lasting changes to the political
scene in Ethiopia. The opposition must keep the momentum and put the ruling party
at the defensive. That way, they could force EPRDF either to play free and fair or to
leave the political scene for good.

—-

The writer could be reached at [email protected] and also blogs at
http://tekluabate.blogspot.no/