Thus came the end of history (at least in our time) for the socialist world under the weight of its own contradictions and untenable political notions. The fact that such an ideology with so much promise of emancipation of the human socio-economic condition was to crash and burn for denying and suppressing man’s free will was one of the tragedies of the 20th century. As if on cue, the single party dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party is now sadly playing a spoiler’s role in undercutting the West’s tepid call for the respect of human rights, and insists on recasting human needs in terms of bread and butter alone.
Enter the 21 century. The same leftist orientation has metastasized into social democracy beginning at the end of the 20th century, especially in Latin America, (European social democracy was there all through the 20th century as a much junior partner in the leftist at times -acrimonious- alliance) and has rehabilitated the damage done to the ideology by restoring democracy to the political calculus. This strategy has successfully rescued the leftist ideology there as attested by it garnering the peoples votes (not though on a 99% scale yet!) in one country after another -Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala and yes, Venezuela.
However, old habits are threatening again. The seduction of power that philosophers from ancient times to the present warn against is rearing its selfish head. In Honduras, the leftist president who was lawfully elected to office tried to unlawfully change the constitution to get a third term and triggered a political crisis there in 2009/10 that ended in his being overthrown and a defeat for leftist forces there. In Venezuela, the same drama continues with Chavez still on top, but his power threatened on multiple fronts, again for stubbornly seeking infinite terms for himself and his party. Ah! the magnetic pull of political power!
One of the Enlightenment’s contributions to stabilize modern societies is the fact that it laid the foundation for all sectors of a polity to be civically considered and be valuable members of a society. We have seen above how Communism opposed this view (along with Nazism) and their fates in history.
That is where we come face to face with the fateful number of 99% in Ethiopia’s 2010 elections. The direct meaning is that our society has been so homogenized since the last election in 2005, it reminisced and ruminated on the days of homogenization under Mengistu where there was no competition, and fondly settled for EPRDF now with a full and unambiguous 99% mandate -so unnatural, so out of history. Papers like the Reporter even hinted as the cause for the opposition’s ‘defeat’ the fact that the opposition is led by the old guard while EPRDF is passing the leadership baton to a younger generation. The issue of leadership age is a red herring. Cross-generational leadership that balances the experience of the old guard while bringing in new blood has been the operating principle of the opposition. More disturbing is the feeble attempt by some EPRDF partisans to support and justify this fraudulent margin, a few by citing the Dominican Republic and Singapore (sic) as examples where the ruling party received such overwhelming support. Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore – emblematic of a dictatorship under a Big Man -being cited as an example! This simple -mindedness coming from voices within the EPRDF camp a few of whom, to their credit, at one time called for Birtukan’s release, makes their now make- up foul call more stunning.
The late Polish philosopher Leszek Kolakowski once said that however much intellectuals yearn to be both prophets and heralds of reason those roles cannot be reconciled. “The common human qualities of vanity and greed for power” are particularly dangerous among intellectuals, and their longing to identify with political causes often results in an “almost unbelievable loss of critical reasoning”.
The lesson for our side, our team -the democratic side in Ethiopian politics – must be clear: Even for our side, we will never aspire and accept even if such out-of-history 99% plus vote was to come our way. It is demeaning to us, it denies that we have worthy opponents that may show us the truth in times of our hubris as a result of intoxicating power. It speaks volumes when so far not a single voice from the EPRDF side had stepped forward to castigate, if not the fraudulent win, at least the laughable margin.
Since coming to power in 1994, the African National Congress has garnered on average about 65% of the votes. The ANC is without a doubt the most democratic party in Africa. As a result of the votes, it has been forced for a decade and half to work in coalition governments although it has the majority seats. Even though the 65% average vote that catapults the ANC into power every 5 years is legitimately gotten, democratic forces all over should worry about a one-party state heading into two decades of power. This is not healthy for democracy. The group that split from ANC was hoped to offer more varied choices to South Africans, but it quickly disintegrated into infighting.
But first things first: our biggest worry is about an ill-gotten and unnatural 99% plus votes. As previous writers in this media have correctly reminded us, this is an opportunity for Ethiopia’s opposition to learn a lesson and close ranks. We have seen the futility of signing a meaningless Code of Conduct. Lessons have to be learnt from this. We also should be weary and wary of Lidetu’s EDP carving a vacuous “Third Way” in Ethiopian politics. While that party in its release describing election 2010 has done a thorough job of documenting 31 irregularities, its insistence on being the third force is delusional. It is premised on indicting the rest of the opposition as an extremist twin of the ruling party. That is simply false, and if EDP were to continue on this path, it would engage in shadow boxing and always asking itself “how can I see this differently from the mainstream opposition to maintain my 3rd way status?” Instead, time to close ranks. There will come a time in post-EPRDF Ethiopia for third and fourth ways. That time is not now. There are no significant differences in the political programs of the opposition parties who might continue to contest elections in the coming years, however futile participation might be.
A recent study by Matthew Frankel, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, titled “Threaten but Participate: Why Election Boycotts Are a Bad Idea” is ominous. The author studied 171 threatened and actual election boycotts between 1990 and 2009 (including Ethiopia’s) and concluded that other than a few rare exceptions, electoral boycotts generally have disastrous results for the boycotting party, rarely result in desired international attention or sanction, and often further entrench the ruling party or leader.
The strategy of participation is not limiting by itself when it is just one tool, and not the only tool, for the opposition that has a single center.
Finally, a parting point: what might be driving EPRDF into such unnatural, and Stalinist societal control{ternafi/teternafi type] is the fear of losing power and the ensuing accountability issues. Going forward, election in Ethiopia without a modicum of National Peace and Reconciliation, is going to be a competition of life and death, a competition of wits. The opposition have repeatedly called for a dialogue with EPRDF only to be spurned off by the power holders. This is where the donor community have to use their leverage to nudge EPRDF to sit with the opposition to reform the electoral edifice, and close the history of enmity.
We must not lose sight of the fact that the oppressed people of Ethiopia have history on their side. The working people of Ethiopia, whom the Economist magazine recently described as disciplined, will have the final say. EPRDF and its officials have been implicated in many crimes, such as the 2005 murder of 200 people ( the chairman of the commission setup to investigate this crime, Judge Frehiwet Samuel, recently has shed additional light on the death of the 7 police officers as an incident meriting further independent investigation that could implicate some regime officials). The International Criminal Courts has indicted Sudan’s Bashir, and is now seeking indictment of about 6 Kenyan officials who masterminded the postelection violence there in 2008. Even coming and residing in the US may not offer sanctuary for EPRDF officials. Just this month, the US Supreme Court in a solid 9-0 ruling rejected a claim of immunity from former Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Ali Samatar and ruled for Somalis who sued the Prime Minister under the Torture Victims Protection Act of 1991.
On its part, the Ethiopian opposition has to consider ways and means to guarantee EPRDF its vital role in a free and democratic Ethiopia where the requirements of justice and reconciliation would be met. Without peace and reconciliation, future elections are doomed as theaters of struggle for survival and continued dominance for EPRDF, and democratization for the opposition, with the results already preordained.
