Tigray economics and Ethiopian politics

The question is: to what extent these assertions hold water? That TPLFities have a grip
on power is never contentious. Elusive and less grounded was the argument related to
Tigray’s overall economic performance. How and to what extent the region performs
economically compared to other regions? This was never answered authoritatively only
until we happened to get a new empirical study conducted by the International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The National Economy

In its January 2013 book entitled Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and
Policy Challenges, the IFPRI provided “…empirical evidence to shed light on the
complexities of agricultural and food policy in today’s Ethiopia, highlight major policies
and interventions of the past decade, and provide insights into building resilience to
natural disasters and food crises” (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-and-
agriculture-ethiopia).

According to the IFPRI, the editors of the book, Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid “tell
the story of Ethiopia’s political, economic, and agricultural transformation”. The overall
conclusion of the book is that Ethiopia is seeing better economic performances and that
the agriculture development-led strategy is “sound”. “In fact, since 2001 the per capita
income in certain rural areas has risen by more than 50 percent, and crop yields and
availability have also increased. Higher investments in roads and mobile phone
technology have led to improved infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets,
commodities, services, and information” (IFPRI website).

It is interesting that Ethiopia is making developments in several key areas. This must be
duly acknowledged and commended. Praising good beginnings and criticizing
malfunctions should be the business of any reasonable and responsible citizen. There is
no doubt that infrastructure is developed and productivity is improved. What is
unfortunate is that the high cost of living (with double-digit inflation) is neutralizing the
changes brought about. Although per capita income increases, purchasing power
alarmingly deteriorates, putting households in a near perfect gain-loss scenario. Of
course, the degree of income distribution at household and regional levels is also not
even. The government and its sympathizers and the opposition should not exclusively
focus on the amount of national income and rate of inflation, respectively. Both need to
be considered for a meaningful characterization of our national economy.

Tigray Economy

The most important part of the book that caught the attention of media is, however, the
one related to the comparative economic performance of Tigray. Compared to other
regional governments, Tigray is performing pretty better in nearly all indicators and
measures including access to and utilization of fertilizer, irrigation, technology,
infrastructure, and crop production. The difference between Tigray, Amhara, Oromoia,
and Southern Ethiopia is, according to the IFPRI ubiquitous and substantial.

The important question to ask is not why Tigray grows faster and stronger but how it
does that. Meaning, given common macro-economic policy, how does Tigray
outperform other regional governments in infrastructure development and crop
production? It is well known that the weather and topography in Tigray are not any
better conducive for crop production- we have there many arid, rocky and mountainous
areas. In fact, one finds hectares and hectares of arable and fertile land in the other
regions. It is difficult to argue that the labor force in Tigray is much more skilled and
productive compared to in those other regions. The only significant factor that should
explain at least much of the variation must be related to the degree of investment made.
Tigray must have enjoyed the highest resource pool over the last yesteryears. And this
seems in direct parlance with the popular cry that the region is the ruling party’s favorite
stop for its economic train.

This is hard to refute. Some members of the top TPLF leadership have been talking to
what extent Tigray is progressing. The most recent account is one which came from
Azeb Mesfin. She eloquently talked of Meles’ vision and plan to turn Tigray into a truly
industrial zone in just few years. The opposition and other people interpreted this as a
mere political maneuvering made to create tensions between the Tigray people and the
other Ethiopians. To me, her talks just talked of the truth.

Generally, the fact that Tigray is found to be the most ‘prosperous’ region in Ethiopia
has serious ramifications. Seen from compassionate and moral grounds, it is good to see
that part of the country to make improvements, for it ‘hosted’ several wars that involved
Ethiopians and foreigners. Citizens from all parts of Ethiopia participated in heroic wars
but Tigray, in addition to its soldiers, suffered a lot in terms of infrastructural damage
and environmental and psychological realms. If all the investments took into
consideration this reality of Tigray, it sounds justifiable. However, it would have been
more edifying and blameless had it been done in absolute clarity, transparency and
based on national consensus.

Implications

That Tigray is economically leading the other regions means a lot. The IFPRI’s finding
could be used by all interested stakeholders as a solid base of evidence in support of the
structural inequality persisting in the country. The difference between Tigray and the
other regions is as psychological and moral as it is economical. Meaning, it is morally
wrong to grow one region faster than others. The difference could also stimulate and
sustain psychological uneasiness between Tigryans and other Ethiopians. The already
worrisome psychological climate might get intensified. Moreover, Ethiopians might
have hard time discriminating between the ruling party and ordinary Tigryans. To the
many, TPLF might mean Tigryans and Tigryans might mean TPLF. This hitherto hard-
to-refute-and-accept perception might now look grounded. This situation in turn might
force innocent Tigryans to identify with TPLF. That in the end means a protracted and
undifferentiated struggle between TPLF/Tigryans and the rest of Ethiopians and would
unnecessarily complicate matters. All these psycho-moral tensions might be considered
barriers for future peace and cooperation between Ethiopians.

What to do

Empirical studies naturally appear credible and authentic. The comparative study
reported by the IFPRI is likely to be considered a yardstick to measure how regions in
Ethiopia perform economically. All stakeholders must see the case seriously to avoid any
unnecessary complications. The government, the opposition, the media, Tigryans and
the entire Ethiopian population must face the reality. The government must accept the
reality and demonstrate its readiness to treat all regions fairly in the future. Bluffing
and/or getting rough on this issue would not do any good. The educated, regardless of
their political affiliations, would be influential in creating a common platform for all
Ethiopians based on the reality on the ground. Workshops, seminars, conferences
and/or publications that involve and consider the government, the opposition, Tigryans,
and all other people are crucial.

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The writer could be reached at [email protected] and also blogs at
http://tekluabate.blogspot.no/.