The preparation for the elections in May 2010 was more than a year in
the making in the PM’s office. Abay Tsehaye, once a fixture in popular
imagination as one of several mystic leaders who were really running
the EPRDF behind the public persona of Meles Zenawi, but later to be
demystified, publicly humiliated and now a grateful underling with a
ministerial portfolio as national security advisor approached the PM’s
office every morning with a judicious expression. Invariably, he was
impeccably attired, and frequently held a thin folder in one of his
hands. And for what time they deemed necessary, Abay had almost
exclusive access (but not always) to the PM while he briefed him on a
range of national security developments, but which, according to
sources, often ended up being dominated by the approaching elections.
In the meantime, Meles had insisted on preparing thoroughly for mass unrest,
particularly in Addis, with a contingency plan even for an emergency
evacuation of the palace. Tens of thousands of security personnel were
trained and deployed in and around Addis: the latest vehicles and
firearms were purchased and intelligence (both human and electronics) was
beefed up. All part of a concerted effort “if possible, to deter; if
not, to contain and crush riots.” Indeed, each stage of the plan had
gone faultlessly; gratifying habitually worrying Meles. And they were
all to be rewarded when Election Day came and went peacefully.
But what neither Meles Zenawi nor his security apparatus prepared for,
nor foresee, was a party machine that was to deliver more than it was
meant to (the 99 .6% “victory”) – a Pyrrhic victory that has shattered
the moral foundation of the system.
Meles Zenawi approached the election by the book. He set a strategy:
win the election by any means necessary. He afforded an efficient
management: look no further than the tens of thousands of security
personnel deployed with clockwork precision. He articulated a unique
political vision: revolutionary democracy, as he eccentrically calls
it. And he tried to establish a personality cult: women and youth were
encouraged to wear t-shirts bearing his image. (Everyone stopped
wearing them after the first day.)
What failed spectacularly, while he was busy elsewhere, was the
judgment of his party underlings. Their obtuse single-mindedness has
pushed the system to the brink by giving it an electoral “victory”
that could be believed by none. This illustrates the chronic lack of
quality middle-rankers—the true believers— that is precariously
dogging the EPRDF. In the hysteria that followed the 2005 elections,
millions of new recruits were literally conscripted in to the EPRDF
with no regard to standard recruitment guidelines. Many of them have
moved up the ladder to middle ranking positions owing to superior
education over long time members. There was an implicit, though not
quite formally articulated, understanding to their mass enlistment:
they will serve and they expect to be rewarded in return. It’s
strictly a utilitarian relationship. And that is what essentially
prevailed in this election. They were asked to deliver(by whatever
means necessary); they did, and they expect to be rewarded. Beyond
that, it’s for the real politicians to pick up the pieces.
The EPRDF leadership slyly recognizes that the absence of overt
protests by the public is not an acknowledgment of the new status quo;
which has palpably slammed the door on peaceful dissent in all but
name. Neither does it need to be reminded of King Menelik, who after
proclaiming one of his edicts inquired about the public’s reaction
only to be told by thrilled aides that there were none, reportedly
said, ‘ Ah, this means they are against it,’ to dramatize the public’s
dangerously suppressed anger. This anger will sooner or later seek an
outlet; it will not remain bottled up forever. And the indefensible
“result” of the election has also fortuitously reduced the EPRDF
grassroots—who, unlike the party’s top brass, live amongst the
people— in to an emotional wreak. No one is winning from this
election “result.” This is where the role of Meles Zenawi is
imperative to thwart a looming disaster for his party and the nation.
His domination of his party is no more simply intellectual. A bungled
election has elevated it to an emotional level as well. The party
grassroots look up to him to lead them out of moral wilderness. He
should rise up to the call of leadership and foresight.
Here is a roadmap for the EPRDF out of the quandary: even with the
specious legal wrangling over a re-run over, it’s still possible for
the EPRDF to legally realize fresh elections within the coming six
months. What is needed is only the political will—really the will of
Meles Zenawi—to dissolve the new parliament in accordance with Article
60 of the Constitution.
Here is the Constitution in its own words:
Ethiopian Constitution: Article 60
Dissolution of the House
With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the
dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to
hold new elections.
The President may invite political parties to form a coalition
government within one week, if the Council of Ministers of a previous
coalition is dissolved because of the loss of its majority in the
House. The House shall be dissolved and new elections shall be held if
the political parties cannot agree to the continuation of the previous
coalition or to form a new majority coalition.
If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this
Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its
dissolution.
The new House shall convene within thirty days of the conclusion of
the elections.
Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing
party of coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker
government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and
organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations,
regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.
(End of Article.)
Sub Article 1 is evidently originally tailored for the enduring EPRDF
strategy to hold onto power up to the last minute, and when on the
verge of being overwhelmed negotiate within the confines of the
Constitution. But whatever the Machiavellian intent of its framers may
have been, it also gives both the PM and the EPRDF the legal framework
to correct the present crisis brought about by the ridiculous margin
of “victory”. They need to seize it and employ it to the advantage of
the nation.
As is clearly stipulated in sub-Article 1, the PM can dissolve
parliament by the consent of its majority for what ever reason he sees
fit. And what better raison d’être than an election result discredited
by even those who voted for the “winning” party. Only a simple
majority is required for dissolution, not a two thirds super-majority.
But even if the law had required a super majority, no doubt that EPRDF
parliamentarians can be counted on to deliver every single vote
required. Parliamentarians are expected to vote for the party line at
all times. Unlike most democracies, conscience is belligerently
discouraged from playing a role in how they vote. In fact, party
teaching maintains that seats won under the banner the party belongs
to the EPRDF; for it to use as it thinks best. A diversion is defined
as a breach of contract between voter and parliamentarian. The penalty
is a swift recall, as had once happened against Seye Abraha et al
after their fallout with Meles Zenawi. Parliamentarians will challenge
the ethos only at the certain peril of their political careers. Few
will dare to tread on that path if the EPRDF leadership is to opt for
a re-run. But in all likelihood, it is safe to assume that they are
less than enthusiastic about joining a thoroughly discredited
parliament and would welcome a fresh election that offer them some
chance of being elected legitimately.
Once a vote of dissolution is carried out successfully, what will
remain is fresh elections in accordance with sub-Article 3 within six
months. Such an opening for the nation and the EPRDF, entirely within
the legal and constitutional framework, something the EPRDF is adamant
about, is what Meles should be encouraged to do by his true friends—
his true local and international friends.
