“Protesters Absent as Ethiopia Marks Anniversary of Meles Rule” read
the title of his May 28th dispatch from Addis. “Tens of thousands of
Ethiopians have turned out in Addis Ababa’s main square to mark PM
Meles Zenawi’s 20th anniversary in power. A day of rage
counterdemonstration planned by democracy activists failed to
materialize,” reported Peter. But, he notes, somewhat perplexed, “the
capital (Addis) is known as a hotbed of anti-government sentiment.”
And, say insiders, much to the chagrin of officials who accredit him
to work in Ethiopia, he goes on, “the turnout at Addis Ababa’s Meskel
Square was a fraction of the one million predicted (by the
EPRDF.)”(This is a sober estimate of a journalist who covered Red
Square parades in Soviet times.)
Teasingly hailed as “EPRDF’s Pravda” by democracy activists because of
controversial post-2005 reports, Reuters, on its part, relayed the
opinion of a 23-year-old university student, “I don’t think there’s an
appetite in Ethiopia for an uprising after 2005. I think even most
opposition supporters believe a gradual process is the only way now.”
May 28th 2011 was supposed to be Ethiopia’s “day of rage,” when
thousands of protesters were supposed to peacefully challenge EPRDF’s
two-decade autocracy. The inspiration came from North Africa.
Interestingly, though, the world’s first day of rage was not in
authoritarian Egypt as is conventionally assumed but, curiously, in
comprehensively democratic US. The Weatherman, a tiny but forceful
faction of Vietnam-war protesting students, organized a string of
three-day-long protest rallies in Chicago in late 1969, and famously
dubbed it “days of rage.”
The students failed miserably back then, but forty-two years later
unwittingly inspired copycat protests in Egypt, which culminated in
the spectacular collapse of Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Democracy
activists in almost all Arab countries have since proposed their own
days of rage. Some have gained trajectory with a mixture of hope and
tragedy, as is the case with Syria and Yemen, but others have botched
mysteriously, as is the example of Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Sub-Sahara Africa, no more the exclusive bastion of dictatorships of
yesteryears, has less room for days of rage than the Middle East.
Democracy has firmly taken root in many parts of the continent. But
democracy is also plainly absent regionally in the Horn, too, with
trend-setter Ethiopia serving as mainstay of the archaic status-quo.
No surprise then that with the exception of Somalia, which is still
stateless, days of rage had been planned for all Horn countries – Sudan,
Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia.
All have more or less imploded almost from the outset, though there
were some protests in Sudan and Djibouti. The reasons vary; each
country has to be addressed individually.
Ethiopia’s planned May 28th day of rage kicked off as an online
campaign after the dramatic fall of Mubarak in Egypt. Broadly rallying
under the catchy “Beka” (enough, in Amharic) slogan on facebook,
thousands signed up with amazing swiftness. “There is no reason why we
cannot have the Arab uprisings in Ethiopia,” they said. And indeed the
clear alignment of political repression, chronic unemployment and high
inflation favored their assertion.
But unlike Tunisia and Egypt, where local activists used social media
to trigger and sustain mass protests, it was the Diaspora, as opposed
to local activists, who launched and to a large extent sustained
Ethiopia’s cyber campaign. This is the fundamental difference between
the Arab and Ethiopian days of rage.
Though admittedly startlingly small in numbers, Ethiopia is not
entirely devoid of local democracy activists. But they were no more
significant in relative numbers in either Tunisia or Egypt, where the
pre-revolution political settings were strikingly similar to that of
Ethiopia. What sets Arab and Ethiopian activists drastically apart is
their perceptions of risk.
Risk is essentially a daring foray into unknown terrain. It embodies
the possibilities of both success and failure at the same time. Hence
it is intrinsically exciting and frightening. Depending on the
outcome, the prize could be huge, or conversely, the cost could be
devastating. Risk is thus at best unsettling.
Arab activists have amply established their keenness to take risks.
But they took calculated rather than reckless risks. In calculated
risks the stakes are systematically analyzed and unambiguous goals are
set. In the end, even with failure there is no room for regret. The
ride would have been worth it. At the opposite pole, success is even
sweeter than it would be under normal circumstances. In reckless
risks, however, the exhilaration from the plunge is savored more than
the result. It rarely has a happy ending. And with the stakes usually
involving life and death issues for democracy activists, nor is it a
plausible alternative.
Absent the courage to at least hazard calculated risks, the hopes of
Arab activists would have degenerated into a pathetic, dreary,
unattainable fantasy. But they did have courage and by taking risks
infused life into their movements, conquered their fears, created
outlets for their talents and creativities, and most importantly made
their triumph possible.
On the other hand, post-2005 local Ethiopian activists have become so
risk averse they now demand the certainty of guaranteed results before
doing anything. By deferring risk at every turn, May 28th being only
the latest one, opportunities to establish legitimacy, recognition and
stature have been squandered repeatedly.
The most oft-cited reason for the inertia is the repressive
capabilities of the EPRDF. Even calculated risks are deemed too
dangerous. And indeed, not only is EPRDF’s repressive network
extensive but there is also a particular nastiness to the EPRDF
leadership that makes it uniquely dangerous. But it is also true that
the threat is nowadays habitually overstated. It has become an excuse
to do nothing and, luckily for the regime, by the image of
invincibility it has projected, a more effective deterrent to dissent
than the secret police.
The good news for the nation is that all this could change. It will
change all in due time. Peaceful Ethiopian activists have it in them
to overcome this predicament.
