Many political
pundits and commentators give two most important reasons for their stay in
power, and these include: (1) the opposition is too divided making it easy for them
to divide and rule; (2) the West is behind the Tigrean ruling elites providing
them financial, political and moral support for their own selfish national interests.
Indeed, the above mentioned reasons are among the factors contributing for the
longevity of TPLF junta, but these factors are not the determinant ones.
According to my understanding, the Tigrean elites are in power for so long
because of their political capability to maintain power. They have a leader who
is capable of combining Marxist theoretical model with Machiavellian state
crafts and apply it without hesitation. They plan all of their political moves
and act very fast and decisively. The following points illustrate their smart
and effective political moves that kept and keeping them in power.
The TPLF dismantled
state structure and state machinery of previous regime. The Ethiopian state
structure and state machinery of previous regime were completely smashed and
completely destroyed. This is a typical
Marxist-Leninist theory translated into practice. It was a radical and
fundamental transformation of the society. According to Marxist teaching social
revolutions to be successful there should be a transfer of state power from one
class to another. In Ethiopian case, a complete transfer of power took place
from one dominant ethnic group to another emerging dominant ethnic group. A
radical transfer of state power took place from then ruling Amhara
ruling ethnic elites to Tigrean ruling elites. A Tigrean ethnic group emerged
as undisputed dominant ruling ethnic group in Ethiopia. The Tigrean elites had
no intention to share power from the very beginning; they needed a full-fledged
dominance and reap the benefits. Indeed, they are reaping the benefits in full
gear.
The
Tigrean elites used both force and cooptation methods to conquer other regions.
From the very beginning they understood that they cannot rule by only using
force, and needed collaborators from other ethnic groups. They recruited
dependable opportunists from major ethnic groups. They created forged “ethnic
political organizations” (OPDO, ANDEM, etc…). These fake ethnic
political organizations have served the Tigrean ruling elites very well and
they are still serving them with dedication and devotion.
They
totally controlled the economy of the country. They understood early on that
the economy is the foundation to maintain political power. The Marxist teaching
that the economic structure is the basis of superstructure was well pursued. They
appeared to adhere to the principles of free market economy in order to
hoodwink the Western donors. They successfully built TPLF Business Empire under
the umbrella of EFFORT. Besides, the Tigrean ethinocrats allied themselves with
the Saudi Business Magnet and the two together now control about 90% percent of
the total production and distribution of the private sector. TPLF, a single
ethnic political organization in power, controls a 100% government employment.
Anyone contrary to the Tigrean interest, risks his/her job. A full acceptance
of the Tigrean domination is expected from all government employees. Moreover,
in Ethiopia land is owned by TPLF. They are the victors and the land of the
vanquished belongs to them. It is “a victor takes all philosophy.”
The Tigrean elites can give you a plot of land, can willy-nilly evict the
farmers and sell it to “foreign investors”; they can give it as a
gift to neighboring states to buy favors; and they can extend the borders of
Tigrean region to any direction of other Ethiopian regions, particularly, to
Gondar. The Tigrean elites are the masters of their destiny; they achieved more
than what they have fought for; it is no more a tiny republic they toiled to
establish in a barren tip of the country. Now they control a huge country with
the immense and untapped resources.
The TPLF
junta conducted and is conducting smart and very effective foreign policy. They
took advantage of current international security concerns and are wisely using
it in their favor. The US and its allies are bent to fight “global
terrorism” and have formed anti-terrorism global coalition. TPLF leaders
didn’t miss the golden opportunity and have joined the coalition from the
very beginning. Anybody confronting their rule at home is condemned as a
terrorist and being sent to jail. Their Western allies know what is going on in
Ethiopia, but they have to keep quiet and give blind eyes to all wrong doings in
order not to upset their unwavering ally in the Horn of Africa.
However, as
smart as they are, the Tigrean elites are starting doing mistakes as all
dictators before them. Their leaders and cadres have developed a sense of
invincibility testing all venues that will bring them more power and more
money. They are evicting thousands of poor families from their land and selling
them for cheap prices to foreign investors. Particularly, the crime they are
committing against innocent people in Gambella region
is attracting worldwide attention and strong local resistance. They also
started messing with the Muslim Religion. That might be the fatal mistake they
have ever done. The Muslims do not hesitate for a second to give their lives
for their religion. They are not cowards as others when it comes to their
religion. These two mistakes might cost the Tigrean elites their power.
Unfortunately enough, there is no any credible opposition force ready to take
advantage of the situation. Ethiopian opposition forces are more of talks and
less of actions; and they are only good at calling hundreds of aimless
meetings. As TPLF is the only well-organized ethnic political organization and
led by politically astute leader, the Tigrean elites might survive the current
turmoil and remain in power for more years to come.
— The writer, Dr. Ture Hirbe, can be reached for comments at
