Why Ethiopians Don’t Trust the TPLF (Part II)

Dr Aklog Birara (Photo: UDJ)

Premise

I start this section with the fundamental premise that genuine commitment to fundamental
human rights and freedom that will assure lasting peace and national reconciliation for
Ethiopia–singularly the most critical governance gaps are nowhere in sight if left to the
governing party and the divided, leaderless and clueless opposition. Why is this so important?
In this century, durable peace and stability cannot be imposed from the top down by force by
any elite to serve itself permanently. Recurring violations of human rights and freedom,
manipulation of elections and recurrent rent-seeking by public and private officials diminish
Ethiopia’s considerable potential to become a great and prosperous country. Skeptics wonder if
Ethiopia would ever become a great and prosperous country. I have no doubt that it can be. For
example, Ethiopia can serve as a major hub of agriculture-based industry producing world class
textiles, leather goods, grains, processed and other foods to meet domestic demand and for
export. It can serve as major tourist destination attracting millions of tourists each year and
generating permanent employment for hundreds of thousands. It has substantial potential to
export electricity and water to neighboring countries while satisfying domestic demand multi-
fold. All these and more means new employment for millions, a strong domestic private sector
and a growing middle class. For the government, it would mean more and reliable taxes and
freedom from foreign aid. These and more require dramatic reorientation of governance, fair
and free elections, a free press, shift in the paradigm of thinking and greater attention to and
investment in civil society participation that is not encumbered by elite and intellectual
manufactured barriers and divisions. These man-made barriers are hurting the country and the
vast majority of the population.

The ruling party is not alone in deterring fulfilment of Ethiopia’s enormous potential. Equally,
the quarrelling political and civic opposition groups abroad and at home have ceased to serve
the national purpose of defending and advancing Ethiopia’s vital long term interests and
promoting solidarity, national cohesion and shared prosperity. Whether they live abroad
or at home, most of those who are educated have fallen into the TPLF trap of
thinking, organizing and acting as members of tribes and sub-groups rather than
as Ethiopians. These gaps
in the way we think, organize and act towards one another have made the country more
vulnerable than anyone of us is willing to admit or accept. We are all accountable for this in one
form or another. We do not have to be Jeff Sachs, the well-known economist, who talks
endlessly about sustainable and equitable development. Those of us with a modicum of
education should know that sustainable and equitable development emanates from good and
accountable governance and from the participation of committed and hardworking citizens
who care for one another and for their country. Opposition groups and the Diaspora have failed
to place Ethiopia’s and the peoples’ interests ahead of themselves. They therefore share the
blame with the governing party.

It is true that “double digit” growth can occur in any country that receives substantial aid but
the benefits rarely trickle down; the primary beneficiaries are those who run the state and or
are aligned to the state. No matter how one looks at it, 90 percent of Ethiopians are sickened
by a state that is rotten to the core and would reject the current ruling party if elections were
held today and administered freely, openly and fairly. Why is this so? The World Bank showed
twice in 12 months that state institutions and officials are corrupt to the core. Nepotism,
bribery and corruption are debilitating Ethiopians regardless of ethnic, religious or demographic
affiliation. Given this debilitating picture, who stands for the national interest? Who really cares
whether Ethiopians live a better life than the current one or youth are employed or forced to
flee in search of a better life abroad? Who is accountable and responsible for the welfare of the
country and its people? For people to behave and act as responsible and patriotic citizens,
especially at times of national threat (the current situation), they must feel that they are
treated fairly and with dignity and that the benefits of growth are shared. It is uncommon for
Ethiopians to leave their country in droves as destiny.

Ethiopia is a country of resilient people. They have enormous pride in their country and have
confidence in its potential to prosper. Yet, there is no trust in the governing party and officials
know it if they open their eyes and ears. People have been expressing their desire and demands
for justice, equality of treatment under the law, fair access to opportunities and freedom to
debate, to vote and to negotiate. If the governing party and the rest of us wish a strong
Ethiopia, it behooves us to accept the simple notion that Ethiopians deserve to be heard by
their government. They deserve to live without fear and with the provision of basic necessities.
Enduring peace emanates solely from a just, inclusive and participatory government and state.
The acid test today is whether or not the ruling party is confident, bold and nationalist enough
to open social, economic, political and cultural space for everyone. I say this because the
TPLF/EPRDF paradigm of ethnic and religious division and supremacy is offering Ethiopia’s
traditional enemies, especially Egypt, windows of opportunity to weaken and dismantle it.
Some in the opposition repeat the same mistake by aligning themselves with the country’s
traditional enemies that wish to weaken and or dismantle it once and for all. The chorus of anti-
Ethiopian sentiment I heard in Doha represents this threat. It is real and imminent. The Saudi
official on a visit to Khartoum who made threatening remarks about the Great Renaissance
Dam on the Abbay River is not an isolated phenomenon. It is a coordinated chorus.

What is the imminent danger?

Listen to what Egyptian generals, political leaders and intellectuals and their backers are saying
and make conclusions for yourself. One general made the unbelievable remark that Egypt “has
legitimate claim to one-third of Ethiopia.” How did he come to this conclusion? Who has he
coopted to do Egypt’s dirty proxy-wars? Is there a secret deal in the same way as the TPLF deal
with the Sudanese to cede Ethiopian territory? What we know is that the sieve through which
this strategy to weaken and dismantle Ethiopia is the ideology of ethnic elite divide and capture
that angers millions of Ethiopians left out from the benefits of growth. For this reason alone,
ethnic politics must be replaced by national or Ethiopian politics and institutions fast. Eroding
Ethiopian values is a recipe for disaster. Egypt and others are using ethnic elite divisions and
political elite aspirants to weaken and dismantle what is left of Ethiopia. The current
government leadership and equally the opposition would be wise to set aside differences to
save Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people from misery and man-made destruction.

In addition to the repression by the governing party on which much has been said, continued
divisions, petty rivalry, jealousy, individualism and in-fighting among Ethiopian opposition, civic,
faith, political and intellectual groups is eroding what is left of Ethiopia’s proud culture of
patriotism, bravery, sense of community and ability to stand up and fight for the greater good
rather than for self, group and other narrow interests. The diminution of core Ethiopian values,
for example, undeterred commitment to Ethiopia’s unity and territorial integrity, the country’s
right to use its national resources to improve Ethiopian lives, the capacity and willingness to
defend human rights and freedoms of citizens at home and abroad without any distinction, etc.
diminish our collective will and strengths as a society. I find this to be a more compelling
weakness in Ethiopia’s resiliency to withstand external threat than any other variable. Just think
of this simple preposition. The ruling party did not have the wisdom from the start to anticipate
that ethnic divisions and ethnic elite political and economic capture will ultimately cost. Simply
put, the TPLF core and its allies implanted an intolerant political, social and religious society.
One cannot expect a different outcome through hate, arrogance, dismissive and accusatory
thinking. It is therefore not farfetched to see danger in this construction of governance that fails
to serve an enduring national purpose. Ethiopia’s traditional enemies thrive on this. Remember,
this is how the TPLF took power. Ethiopia’s enemies have always relied on proxies within to
achieve their goals. The secession of Eritrea and the rise of ethnic elites to power is illustrative.
Go to any social or political or even religious meeting in the diaspora. Division is everywhere
and people think and assume that it is healthy. I am not talking about diversity and diverse
thinking; both are healthy. We live in a diverse America. India is diverse and tolerant. Our
divisions are scary and damaging to the fabric of Ethiopian society and endanger the very
existence of the country. They are antagonistic. What is tragic is that such divisive world views
are not limited to the governing party. The culture of division is widespread. The Diaspora is a
prime example. Can anyone come up with a reason why Ethiopians with advanced education
and who live in Western democracies are incapable to sit together around a conference table,
debate ideas and come-up with viable options for their country? Why are opposition groups
that reject the TPLF/EPRDF incapable of setting aside non-strategic differences and offer the
Ethiopian people a better alternative? Why are civil society groups unable to learn from
Armenians? The Irish? The Palestinians? The Jewish community etc. in forming formidable
multiethnic civic, human rights and political groups? We cannot attribute the phenomenon
solely to the TPLF/EPRDF. The vast human capital of Ethiopians in the Diaspora has done little
to nothing to bridge differences and to promote healthy conversations and offer policy
alternatives. It has sunk to the status of being self-serving.

We are our own worst enemies

Back to the Egyptian example. I realized in my discussions with many Egyptian experts (in Doha,
the GCC and Egypt) that, unlike Ethiopians, Egyptian society is united and speaks with one voice
concerning Egyptian hegemony over the Nile. Egyptians seem to understand that Ethiopian
society is polarized by political elites and non-caring intellectuals. Egyptians and Saudis are
exploiting this division to maximum advantage by financing various groups. In short, Egyptians
have a national purpose. On the other hand, the Ethiopian ruling party is more preoccupied
with suffocating all forms of dissent using all kinds of pretexts and prolonging its power than in
serving Ethiopia’s national interests and the welfare of its diverse population. For example, 23
years after it took power, it has done nothing to allow let alone create an empowering political,
social, economic and religious environment that strengthen a sense of Ethiopian community
that transcends ethnic and religious affiliation. It has not set in motion the critical conditions
that will create national cohesion as Ethiopians. In my estimation, it is such national cohesion
and shared prosperity that will serve as buffers against any foreign aggression whether
Egyptian or other. Adwa is a prime example. It was a victory of all Ethiopians regardless of
wealth, religion or ethnicity. Unfortunately for Ethiopia and its 94 million people, this cohesion
won’t occur under current governance. Why? The governing party is incapable of reforming
itself. It is afraid of any form of peaceful dissent. I say this for a reason. The danger is all out
there for us to see. This phenomenon is much aggravated by a divided civil society and
opposition and by a dysfunctional ruling party that does not read the dangers on the horizon
and continues suffocating all forms of human rights and freedom. The ruling party’s singular
and blind preoccupation with sheer political power and economic capture by the few for the
few is a recipe for an impending crisis for which everyone will pay a price.

Is there peace and stability?

Briefly stated, Ethiopia has the appearance of peace and stability. Social and political fissures
are everywhere to see. Diversity is used as a wedge rather than as an asset. Evidence shows
that government has not tapped fully into the country’s immense diversity, natural resources,
strategic location as a hub of the African continent and as a bridge to North Africa and the
Middle East. It has not offered its youthful population—64 percent under 35—employment
opportunity. It has not harnessed modern information technology that is transforming poor
societies to tackle poverty, boosting the middle class and increasing incomes (Bangladesh,
Kenya) etc. etc. The Ethiopian government is one of the few anywhere in the world to retain
state control of the telecommunication sector, a cash cow. “The absence of competition has
seen a country of 94 million lag badly behind the rest of the continent in an industry that has
generally burgeoned alongside economic growth…with mobile phone penetration of 70 percent
in SSA compared to a paltry 2.5 percent in Ethiopia; internet access of 40 percent in Kenya.” 4/

Modern IT opens windows for private enterprise and employment. It enhances freedom and
facilitates knowledge transfer. It serves as an essential tool for youth to better themselves. It is
at the heart of the quest for choice and freedom from poverty and oppression. Government
unwillingness to give space; to be all inclusive; and to unleash the creative potential of the
country’s youth and to harness the peace, gender (females) and information technology
dividend, including freedom of expression, have diminished national social cohesion,
productivity and the emergence of a robust national private sector. Africa Business quotes
Guang Z Chen, World Bank Country Director, Ethiopia, who asked the Ethiopian government “to
allow the private sector to play a bigger role in the economy.” Chen says, “For the country to
continue to grow I strongly believe industry has to take a much bigger role because there is no
other country that I am aware of, aside from resource-rich countries, that can grow to middle
income status with still 50 percent of GDP on agriculture.” The private sector suffers from lack
of access to credit, foreign exchange, land, licenses and permits. Procurement of goods and
services is not transparent or competitive. “Making credit available for the private sector is
certainly one area the government can do more. The trend that worries us is that while the
public investment (the biggest source of bribery, favoritism and corruption) as a share of GDP is
increasing, the private sector as a share of GDP is decreasing” as are savings. Illicit outflow of
scarce capital continues unabated, reducing capital resources. 5/

By all measurements, the government fails to empower and unleash Ethiopia’s productive
potential. It gives preferences to foreigners at a cost to Ethiopian entrepreneurs. It counters
national cohesion and integration, the opposite of global trends. A 2010 Gallop Poll shows that
trust in government and its institutions is among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Those with
wealth make money without generating employment and without creating national wealth for
the country and its people. Some fear that a nationalist government would go after their ill-
gotten wealth. Some say that they are leaving the country in droves and voting against the
government by not investing in their homeland. Whatever the motive, it is the people who are
being bled dry. The only institutions in which there is a high level of trust is in faith institutions:
Christianity and Islam. However, both are under constant harassment by the ruling party.

Reform must be relentless, inclusive and empowering

Ethiopia is one of the few countries in the world where social change has always come from
within. The 1974 Revolution was a result of the Ethiopian Student’s Movement that galvanized
the entire society. It was national and not ethnic or religious. It was transformative but not well
designed, planned or executed. In this sense, the country has gone backwards: from a national
to that of an ethnic political and social culture. I have argued that this type of social and political
culture entails risks and unintended consequences. Observers within and outside Ethiopia agree
that the Socialist Military Dictatorship that toppled the Haile Selassie government in 1974 and
ruled the country with an iron-fist for 17 years was among the most oppressive. Its leaders,
leftist groups with different ideologies and motives, foreign sponsors, ethnic-based liberation
movements, supporters of the defunct Imperial system and others turned the country into a
blood bath. An entire generation was lost. Hundreds of thousands of young people were
murdered; and hundreds of thousands fled. This period triggered the first wave of human
capital flight at a massive scale. A trend was established. Before then, Ethiopians sent
overseas for further education returned home. Today, an estimated 5.5 million Ethiopians—
almost all with high school education and 1/3rd with college education–live and work in the
two Sudans, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand
and numerous Sub-Saharan African countries. Ninety one percent of domestic workers in the
GCC are Ethiopian females aged 20-30. In 2009, 42,000 Ethiopians, most of them young, left
through Yemen. According to one Canadian institution, between 1991 (when the TPLF/EPRDF
took power) and 2006 (after the 2005 elections were reversed), Ethiopia trained 3,700 medical
doctors. Of the total 3,000 left the country. This brain-drain continues unabated. An estimated
80 percent of educated and trained Ethiopians leave the country. Simply put, no matter how
much money we remit each year ( In 2011, the World Bank disputed Ethiopian lower
government data and estimated that Ethiopia’s growing Diaspora remitted more than $3 billion
per year), Ethiopia’s national growth will be diminished by brain-drain for decades to come. It is
true that many in the diaspora have vested interests and contribute to the glitz economy.

Has the ruling party lost its ways?

It seems that way. In political science, they say that “Power corrupts and absolute power
corrupts absolutely.” This is the case with the TPLF/EPRDF core. It has no soul. It sees nothing
wrong with the current unjust and unfair distribution of wealth and incomes. There is no doubt
that when it took power the TPLF dominated ethnic-coalition offered a promising start toward
democratization. The world community accepted it as a positive force in doing what is good for
the entire society. However, like its predecessor, it failed to seize opportunities to advance
genuine democracy. Most people, especially youth, were jubilant when the new government
seized power in 1991 for four reasons. First, the repressive regime was removed through
collective revolt; second, a new Constitution with democratic content was promulgated; third,
ethnic-regions were granted autonomy; and fourth, a new era of growth, justice, peace,
inclusion and political pluralism was proclaimed. All these have evaporated.

The selling point of the new ethnic elites in power was this. The Transitional Government of
Ethiopia (TGE) offered a compelling argument that “it stood for human rights, press freedom,
political pluralism, the rule of law, equality of all nations etc.” While donors praise Ethiopia’s
remarkable growth, albeit from a low base, human rights groups and unattached development
experts question the spread of social benefits. “Meles engineered one party rule in effect for
the TPLF and his Tigray inner circle, with complicity of other ethnic elites that were coopted
into the ruling alliance….Ethiopia’s much praised economic development is not as robust or
cost-free ….as the international community believes…The system was entirely dependent on
central authority or command and control.” This does not mean that there is no growth. It will
be impossible to receive aid without showing some growth. Education opportunities have
expanded. But quality is low. In recent survey, Ethiopia ranked 126 of 127 in access and quality
of education. The number of colleges and universities has increased. Roads, bridges,
hydroelectric dams, etc. have been built. Equally, it will be unthinkable to siphon-off capital
unless there is something to siphon or steal. 6/

Sharp criticism of “Ethiopia’s renaissance” is buffeted by others. Following the death of Prime
Minister Meles in August 2012, Halvorssen and Gladstein of Forbes critiqued donors and the
Ethiopian government’s Anti-Terrorist Law. “Those in the West heaping praise on Zenawi—all
living in societies that suffered so much to achieve individual liberty are engaging in dramatic
hypocrisy. In a 2009 UK Department of International Development sponsored study of
Ethiopia’s growth Stefan Dercon and Ruth Vargas suggested that “The magnitude of this growth
and the fact that it has been achieved with little change in input use suggests something is not
right with the data on agriculture,” the leading sector in the country. In 2012, the IMF
questioned Ethiopia’s growth sustainability. “The sustainability of Ethiopia’s growth model over
the medium term is uncertain, given the constraints on private sector development, the
absence of savings incentives, lack of financial reform, etc.” Despite these policy and structural
limitations, the government argues that export-driven growth is possible without the domestic
private sector. Critics argue that mega projects (hydro) to export and generate foreign
exchange do not respond to the real need of improving smallholder agricultural productivity,
domestic agriculture-based industrialization and employment generation. In other words, state
and party-led growth alone cannot create sustainability without competition and participation.

If we accept the thesis that Ethiopia’s development story is not “as robust and cost free” as the
government and donors claim, what is the root policy cause? It is lack of freedom and
predictability that private property is protected by law and cannot be affected by political
decisions. Private sector development in Ethiopia is virtually impossible without a favorable
investment regulatory system that levels the playing field. The rule of law and the judicial
system must be above the party, sacrosanct and predictable. In 2013, the country ranked “49.4
percent, making its economy the 146th freest or among the least free in the world. It has gone
down by 2.6 %; lower in 6 of 10 indices: trade, workers’ rights, financial movement, investment,
etc.” It ranks 32nd of 46 African countries. “Regulatory efficiency remains weak, creating an
unfavorable climate for entrepreneurial activity…The foundations of economic freedom are
quite fragile, and particularly because of pervasive corruption and a deficient judicial
system…Corruption further undermines the foundation of economic freedom.” It goes without
saying that this suffocating environment limits productivity and efficiency severely. As a result,
both the country and consumers suffer. 7/

Human Rights Watch has done more than any human rights organization to show the flaws of
Ethiopia’s authoritarian governance in general and the nexus between massive aid inflow on
the one hand and discrimination, nepotism, corruption and repression on the other.
“Development aid flows through, and supports a virtual one-party state with a deplorable
human rights record. Government practices include jailing and silencing critics and media,
enacting laws to undermine human rights activity, and hobbling the political system.” Aid is
routinely used to punish opponents and reward supporters. Massive amounts of money is
siphoned-off for private gain. The effect of this on the population is substantial. “The Ethiopian
population pays a heavy price for this approach in development” in economic, social and
political terms. The 2005 elections that the opposition won and then lost through political
decision is a prime example. Similarly, in 2010, “the EPRDF won 99.6 percent of parliamentary
seats,” making a mockery of the electoral process. Competition was not allowed. 8/

Continued suffocation of human rights and freedoms is dangerous for Ethiopia

Hope among Ethiopians that the ruling party would be open to reform has evaporated. It shows
no inclination to reform itself. “Ethiopian authorities have subjected political detainees to
torture and other ill-treatment at the main detention center in Addis Ababa. In a 70 page
report, Human Rights Watch “documents serious human rights abuses, unlawful interrogation
tactics…beatings, torture and coerced confessions.” The US Department of State’s 2013 report
is dire as ever. Ethiopia is home to one of the largest political prisoner populations in the world.
It is also one of the top ten jailers of journalists. The court system caters to the party alone.
“Ethiopia’s courts are politicized and lack independence.” Their role is to serve the ruling party
and not to administer justice. “Beatings, torture and coerced confession are no way to deal
with journalists or the political opposition.” It does this against in violation of the country’s
constitution. “Ethiopia’s Constitution and international legal commitments require officials to
protect all detainees from mistreatment….Real change demands action from the highest levels
of government against those responsible to root out the underlying culture of impunity.” The
system validates and sustains impunity. This impunity is expansive. Bribery, ethnic-based
nepotism, high corruption and illicit outflow of funds stem from the system itself. High officials
and top military officers operate above the law and all are vested in the system that enriches
them. In short, the system survives by bribing, paying, rewarding and enriching those who are
hired to serve the county and the public. 9/

Top officials of the governing party do not see anything wrong with their manipulation of the
Constitution and with violation of human rights contained in international agreements.
Following the aftermath of the 2005 elections in which 200 young and innocent Ethiopians
were massacred, Ana Gomes, member of the European Parliament and Head of the EU Election
Team to Ethiopia saw the danger of impunity as a political culture. She concluded, “As long as
the Meles regime is in power, I will never believe in an election in Ethiopia.” Meles is gone but
his legacy remains intact. Measured in terms of freedom, human rights, transparency, fair and
open political and economic competition and rampant and systemic corruption the country is
worse off than it was in 2005 and 2010. To his credit, Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn is
fully cognizant of the dangers the country faces in one area of poor-governance, namely,
corruption. A few high officials have been arrested. However, the system breeds corruption
and those at the top who use the state to make themselves, their families and friends rich are
central to the problem. They operate above the law. The public sector investment led strategy
of relentless public borrowing, aid, remittances, commercial loans etc. offers a window of
opportunity for theft, graft, kickbacks, corruption and illicit outflow through procurement,
customs etc. As the system is infected from the top down; it will not stop until and unless the
system is overhauled radically. This requires wisdom and political openness and competition; a
modern monitoring system; and the establishment of an independent oversight consisting of
civil society and prominent individuals with impeccable integrity. Transparency International,
UNDP and Global Financial Integrity provided documentary evidence showing systemic
corruption that requires real commitment to hold corrupt officials at the top and private
individuals accountable, including freezing their assets and going after their ill-earned wealth
abroad. Why? “The people of Ethiopia are being bled dry. No matter how hard they try to
fight their way out of absolute destitution and poverty, they will be swimming against the
current of illicit capital leakage.” 10/

Ethiopia faces intractable vulnerabilities and risks

The hurdle Ethiopia faces on the economic front is equally prevalent on the human rights front
and social development. “Rather than working to build a development strategy grounded in
human rights, the Ethiopian government is attempting to hoodwink its human rights record,
leaving unmentioned its Villagization Program and the Anti-Terrorist Proclamation—both used
by the government as significant justification for forced resettlement, arbitrary detention, and
politically motivated arrests. Tools used in implementing projects reinforce violation of human
rights and the uprooting of indigenous people from their lands all in the name of development
“without freedom.” The lack of people-centered development contributes directly to the
prevailing phenomenon of growth for the few and a gaping inequity that will feed into and
cause social unrest similar to Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and rest. This feeds to the threat the
country faces.

Here is the good news, Ethiopian society has overcome its veil of fear imposed by the system.
Opposition groups, spiritual leaders, some members of the governing party and others are
openly critical of the government. Women showed their courage recently demanding justice,
inclusion and democracy. Peaceful protests are common. Some of the party’s hard core
supporters are critical of corruption and open favoritism in hiring and licensing. While this may
be a trend, think tanks such as Human Rights Watch and Oakland Institute do not see
sustainable development unless human rights and freedoms are protected by law and enforced
by the government. Undeniable is the trend that the genie of corruption and fear is out of the
box and the quest for freedom is unstoppable. The option is not more repression. It is opening-
up political and social space sooner than later. Those in the Diaspora and opposition groups
within the country have the moral responsibility to focus on those policy issues that they share
as Ethiopian citizens and have the courage and will to challenge the ruling party.

In sum, “No Human Rights=No Development. No human rights and fundamental freedoms=
No national Cohesion, Solidarity and Stability. 10/

The regime breeds enemies rather than friends

Ethiopia is most likely to face immense challenges in the years ahead from a man-made
governance hurdle of ethnic and religious divisions, a regime that is unwilling to change and an
opposition that lacks a national purpose and suffers from fragmentation and wise leadership.
“It is probable that the new government will be more fragile, the security forces more
influential and internal stability endangered,” says ICG. This is generally true in the Ogaden,
Gambella, the Omo Valley, Oromia and pockets of the Amhara and Beni-Shangul regions. In its
2013 report to the UN, the Ethiopian Women’s Human Rights Alliance (EWHRA) points out that
“The Anti-Terrorist Law allows the government to promote policies which foster ethnic and
religious hostilities and to label opposition groups as terrorist organizations, thereby
eliminating all dissent and creating an environment of fear of reprisals for challenging the
government.” Especially worrisome is deliberate provocation of ethnic conflict that pities one
group against another; and ethnic cleansing and displacement that forces people to revolt.
“Ethnicity permeates politics of the country and the ruling party has been unable and unwilling
to create a broader political base in this complex and diverse country. The current party
dominates the political scene and governs through limited popular participation.” 11/

In short, for Ethiopia to protect its national unity and territorial integrity, the TPLF/EPRDF has
no other choice but embrace Ethiopian nationalism and Ethiopian long-term interest. It must
recognize that trust of the vast majority won’t occur without genuine reform. The history of the
core group, the TPLF, which commands political and economic power will not happen through
fear and repression. It facilitated the secession of Eritrea and made Ethiopia land-locked. It
mobilized Ethiopians, sacrificed the lives of 70,000 to 100,000 lives and squandered billions of
Birr for a war whose end game proved to be a disaster. I should like to ask the reader a simple
question. If the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his cohort had the resolve to defend
Badme, an Ethiopian territory in the Tigray Region, what motivated his successor, Prime
Minister Haile Mariam Dessalegn to cede Ethiopian territory that previous governments
defended to the Sudan? I refer to the secret deal of transferring Ethiopian territory to the
Sudan and by offering the false argument that it was simply “implementing agreements
reached by previous governments.” The new PM offers no credible evidence.

Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, former President of Ethiopia and the only surviving head of
state rejected the story and asked the ruling party to provide concrete evidence. Therefore, the
ruling party has no integrity. In the later example, it decided to take the Sudanese position
rather than siding with the Ethiopian people and defending Ethiopia’s national interests.
Ironically and regardless of the rhetoric the Sudanese Government has close military ties with
Egypt. Given looming dangers, especially threats from the Arab World (Egypt is the leader), the
governing party must change its ways now. It must listen to dissenting voices and
accommodate all stakeholders in order to survive and to gain legitimacy. Ethiopia possesses
untapped resources and deserves to join breakout nations that are on the way to prosperity. In
the 1980s and early 1990s, Sub-Saharan Africa was considered a “basket case.” Today, the
region is home to some of the fastest growing economies in the world. Ethiopia is included in
this newly emerging club. However, as the above analysis shows, it lags behind in numerous
critical areas, freedom, political pluralism, the use of information technology for development,
per capita income, etc. Ninety percent of the population is poor. Thousands of young people
leave the country each year. This in itself shows that the foundation of its growth is shallow. “A
nation can climb the ladder (of growth) for a decade, two decades, three decades, only to hit a
snake and fall back to the bottom, where it must start over again, and may be again and again.”
There is no doubt that quantitatively, Ethiopia grew fast in the late 1960s and fell in the late
1970s, 1980s and early 1990s. It began to climb up again since 2005. There is no certainty that
growth will continue at the same level unless fundamental reforms are carried-out. 12/

(Commentary Part III will focus on why squandering Ethiopia’s natural resources is dangerous for
the governing party)