In Part
Five (a) of this series, I presented what I believe is a compelling case why
the current political and socioeconomic system is inimical to the vast majority
of the Ethiopian people. Among other things, the system has literally
disempowered and disenfranchised them. It arrests, jails and persecutes those
who stand for human dignity and honor, for peace, justice, fairness, equality
and the rule of law and for political pluralism without let up. Let us not be
naïve. A governing party that concocts data and information and arrests,
charges and sentences those who advance the cause of freedom and political
pluralism one by one has something to fear. A confident system does not do
this. Fear comes only from one source: mistrust of the
population and popular uprising, especially the country’s youthful
population that constitutes the majority. It comes from the young and restless
that stands firmly for the fundamental principles of fair
and equitable treatment under the law, justice, individual
freedom and political pluralism that will usher in a new era expressed through
institutionalized supremacy of the electorate.
As a
backdrop and before making a set of concrete recommendations for consideration
in Part Six , I suggest that hunger, destitution and poverty will not be
removed from Ethiopian soil; and a promising future of sustainable and
equitable institutionalized and rooted unless and until the Ethiopian people exercise
their free will and elect their leaders and representatives. It is only then
that they can hold them accountable for economic and social outcomes. The
TPLF/EPRDF core knows this very well and will do everything in its power to
continue minority-ethnic elite based political governance. The democratic
camouflage of an assortment of ethnic-elite parties that consist of the EPRDF
is a clever arrangement to give it a semblance of democracy and inclusion. Only
ethnic elites benefit from this arrangement.
There are
some who still believe that the TPLF/EPRDF core can reform itself and
accommodate the hopes and aspirations of the vast majority. The probability of
radical reform toward genuine freedom and democracy is close to zero. Why and
what is the evidence? The governing party continues to violate its own
Constitutional provisions on human rights and freedoms. It persecutes and
arrests, sentences and jails human rights advocates and democratic activists
routinely. Here is why. The best political, social and
economic space for the TPLF/EPRDF core is one that is devoid of national
leaning and educated talent, opposition and civil society in the country. The
contrary is also true. A country that consists of weak, poor, ‘mindless’,
hungry, poor, divided, dispirited and disempowered populace is good for dictatorial
governance. In this environment, it is fairly easy for the top leadership to
use any excuse, including “anti-terrorism” to terrorize and oppress a peace
loving population; and advocates who struggle for peaceful change.
Anyone and everyone who stands for country, unity in
diversity, human honor and dignity, justice, equitable treatment and access to
economic and social opportunities, freedom and political pluralism is
ultimately subject to the “terrorist” doctrine. An increasingly ‘terrorist
like’ state is in a position to reverse the table and accuse those who advocate
peace, freedom and political pluralism of plots against the state and the
constitution. Defense of the Constitution is now used to reinforce Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi’s almost state of siege like method of command and
control in all areas of public life. The fact that the country that his party
leads ranked 174th out of 185 countries in the latest UN Human
Development Index does not bother him or the rest of the governing elite. Only
11 countries in the world are ranked worse than Ethiopia, the largest aid
recipient in Africa. Here is the cruel fact. The effect of this repressive,
oppressive and discriminatory governance is singularly felt by Ethiopia’s
youth, who constitute the vast majority of the population. Youth that UNFPA
defines as those between 10 and 24 years of age constitute 35 % of the
population; 60 % of Ethiopians are under 30 years. This youthful population
needs millions of jobs and other economic opportunities to survive. Those
surveyed say that they see no future in their country; and leave the country in
thousands.
Between January and October 2011, 52,000 young
Ethiopians, most of them girls, left their country through Yemen. Others travel
through Sudan via the Sinai to Israel and other destinations. Many die
en-route. One
think-tank on global diaspora populations and the brain-drain estimates that 75
percent of Ethiopian professionals—medical doctors, nurses, pilots, mechanics,
teachers, business women and men and others—left the country over the past
decade alone. If you think Ethiopia is not hemorrhaging from this brain-drain
think again and again. It suits the governing party. After all, those of us in
the Diaspora remit more than US$3.5 billion per year and support at least 5
million Ethiopians through direct remittances. We leave the political, social,
economic and cultural space to the governing party and its allies. The
brain-drain is one of the costliest occurrences under the Military-Socialist
Dictatorship and under the TPLF/EPRDF. It just got worse.
If the
country is ranked 174th out of 185 countries under Prime Meles
Zenawi’s watch for almost 21 years, and if the country is losing thousands of
its highly trained and experienced talent each year, and if Ethiopians girls
and women are treated like 21st century slaves and victimized by
their masters in the Middle East and North Africa, what evidence is there that
the future will be better than the past under the same system? The core
leadership of the governing party is unwilling and unable to give-up power or open
up the system and share power with others for one simple reason: economic and
financial interest. If Ethiopia today is identified-not by the opposition but rather
by global independent and global institutions–as “one of the hungriest, unhealthiest
and un-freest” countries in the world,” why is the governing elite unwilling to compromise?
As
important, if opposition parties and civic groups accept the notion that the
country is in a dire state, why are they unwilling to cooperate and collaborate
with one another and save the country from ruin?
Albert
Einstein is quoted saying that he “would spend fifty-five minutes defining the
problem and only five minutes finding the solution.” It is amazing to me that
most political and civic actors in the opposition camp, especially those
outside the country, assume that they have diagnosed and have established a
shared understanding of Ethiopia’s problems. Have they? If yes, how come they
have not yet arrived at a solution that places a higher premium on love of
country and its diverse population over ego and party; and cooperation and
collaboration over constant friction and rivalry? It is these basic
requirements in organization and leadership that prompted me to write the
series “Why Ethiopians Must Unite.” Only a high degree of cooperation would
lead to a clear definition and shared understanding of the problem the country
and its 90 million people, especially youth face today and will face in the
decades to come. The tendency to arrive at simple and readymade solutions
before arriving at a shared understanding of the problem leads to never-never
land and prolongs the life of the governing party. The core leadership of the TPLF/EPRDF
knows this strategic weakness on the part of opposition groups; and thrives on
its ethos of divide and rule. A divided opposition allows the longevity of the
governing party. This is why it can afford to be brutal. This is why it is
unwilling to reform peacefully. The burden is on opposition groups and civil
society.
I argued
in a series on the “Ethiopian fascination with the Arab Spring” that Prime
Minister Meles and his government are more like leaders in Libya, Yemen and
Syria than Tunisia or Egypt. Gadhafi, Salah and Assad never appreciated the
power of social forces, especially youth, which galvanized the population.
Gadhafi never learned from Ben Ali of Tunisia and died in disgrace. Assad of
Syria turned his weaponry against his own people and forced members of the
defense forces to side with the popular uprising. The core value of dictators is
to hold on to power at any human and societal cost. They rarely spend time
diagnosing the social, economic and political ills of the society that despises
them and rejects them. Their solution is more repression.
I have given the material reasons why the
TPLF/EPRDF core leadership resorts to instruments of repression rather than to national
reconciliation and peaceful transformation for the sake of the country and its
diverse population. In short, it has everything to lose. The rest of us must
grasp the reality that dictatorships rarely give up power. This is why they are
dictatorships. They are relentless in making sure that the full force of the
state machinery is deployed to silence opponents no matter where they reside. None is safe unless and until everyone is
secure. This is why unity of purpose within
the opposition is so vital.
There are so many baby steps opposition groups, including
civil societies could take that one wonders where the priority lies. Creating
organizations is easy. Giving them relevance, renewing them, sustaining them
and connecting them to one another is the hardest part. This is why many belong
to the museum of ideas. This is why the Ethiopian people lose confidence and
trust in them. It is not enough to blame the governing party for divisions,
conflicts and hijackings. Those in the opposition camp do as much damage to
themselves as the governing party does to them. It is within their power to
change this now.
Division is our Achilles heel
Our division in general and the inability of political
and civic groups to reflect and think outside the box is the single most
important hurdle that allows a repressive regime to rule as it pleases. “In
Ethiopia today, political space for electoral competition, the free exchange of
ideas, and independent civil society organization is virtually non-existent.
Ethiopia is a strong and effective authoritarian state with a ruling party that
dominates nearly all aspects of public life,” concluded Terrence Lyons last
summer. Economic and social life is the worst it has ever been in the country’s
history. Accordingly, the moral authority for democratic change is on the side
of the opposition camp—whether political or civic. Who wants his/her mother,
father, daughter, son, sister, aunt, uncle or friend to flee the homeland in
search of opportunity abroad? It is a matter of honor and dignity that this
atrocity that comes from poor and repressive governance is halted. The only potential force
that could stop this nightmare is the Ethiopian people themselves. The rest of
us can only help in a variety of ways that I will present in Part Six next week.
The Ethiopian youth bulge discussed
earlier is among the social forces, perhaps the key that will ultimately
transform the country. Youth must struggle peacefully. For this to materialize,
it must establish a new and inclusive order that will empower it and is rooted
in within the country. Exile must not be the ultimate solution to unemployment,
hunger and poverty. For this to happen, youth and the rest of us must have the
courage to empower all to be patriots as Ethiopians–beyond ethnicity,
religion, gender or age–to believe in the future of the country and its
diverse population; to accept the vital role of the rule of law and democratic
choices; and to practice these core principles in our daily lives and
interactions with one another.
My
own generation must accept responsibility that it has done very little to
transmit knowledge to; mentor and coach; and prepare this and the coming
generation for the difficult journey ahead. Because of division and parochial
interests, we fail to recognize that continuity of a bold, courageous and
patriotic generation of Ethiopians is at risk. It has no national leadership
model to emulate. This gap must be given urgent attention and overcome. A
purposeful, well-coordinated and financed grassroots civil society movement
will go a long way in countering the assault on Ethiopian democratic
activists—whether party, civil society, youth or individuals. The governing
party is well financed and tries to penetrate and divide activists outside the
same way it does inside.
The governing
party does everything in its power to prepare its successors, consistently
alienating and separating them from the rest of the society. It invests heavily
into a cadre of likeminded individuals whose loyalty is to the party and
endowments, self-interest, and to their own narrow ethnic bases. That the party
is not trusted by at least 90 percent of the population is documented by
various sources, including donors in their internal and confidential documents.
It tries to fill the trust gap through a variety of instruments: coercion such
as denying fertilizers, seeds and lands to peasant farmers; forcing students to
join the party and providing jobs as incentive; using licenses and permits to
buy loyalty; using humanitarian aid to reward friends and to punish opponents
and so on. Sheer survival forces individuals to join the party and give it
support. These are not indicators of free choice. Fear and the need to access
sources of livelihood are substantial reasons for joining and supporting the
governing party. In light of this, support to the party is narrow and shallow.
The TPLF/EPRDF’s
aversion to national activists
The core leadership continues to arrest, sentence and
jail or force to flee human rights activists, journalists, politicians,
academics, and democratic dissenters for strategic reasons: to deny Ethiopian
society of courageous, creative and nationalist leaders. Eskinder Nega and his
wife Serkalem Fasil were both accused of treason and jailed following the 2005
elections. Reflect on the fact that Serkalem gave birth to their first child,
Nafkote, while in prison. Only a heartless and inhumane political leadership
will deny a mother the dignity of giving birth to a child in a more hospitable
condition. In a repeat of the same fiasco, Eskinder was again accused of
promoting ‘terrorism;’ arrested in September 2011; and sent to prison. His five
year old son, Nafkote watched with horror and fear the dehumanizing experience
of his father snatched away from him. Imagine the trauma of seeing a father
“handcuffed” and dragged away in broad daylight. This is a haunting experience
that no child should go through in his or her formative age. Imagine that it
could be you or me or our child. I will never ever forget what this child asked
with the innocence that only a child would. “Where are you taking my daddy?” How many Eskinder Negas and Nafkote’s
can the country and the society afford?
I do not
expect an answer from a regime that torments democratic and national-leaning
human rights activists. Our individual and collective response must be to
answer the cry and plight of the Nafkotes of Ethiopia through coordinated
actions. The struggle is about him and the millions like him. His father’s
crime is to stand firm for human rights, justice, fair and equitable treatment,
the rule of law and political pluralism. Eskinder Nega is a part of a wave of
arrests and persecution that continues unabated. Between 2001 and 2009, 41
journalists were forced into exile and 24 were imprisoned. Mesfin Negash of
Addis Neger was jailed in 2009 and his news organization closed. Daniel Kebede
of Action Aid and Netsanet Demissie, founder of Social Justice in Ethiopia were
both arrested. The governing party knows that an empowered and informed society
poses enormous risks; and hence the constant and relentless campaign to
terrorize anyone who advocates freedom and democratic governance.
A new
generation of activists
Ethiopian youth
whose future is at risk, and the rest of us express admiration for the courage
and principled positions of Andualem Aragie, Asaminew Birhanu, Bekele Gerba,
Nathaniel Mekonnen, Olbana Lelisa, Reeyot Alemu, Woubshet Taye, Zelalem Molla
and Eskinder Nega, Yenesew Gebre—who paid the ultimate sacrifice–and the
thousands of political prisoners in Ethiopia’s dungeons. We share their vision
and the values they stand for: human dignity, justice, freedom and political
pluralism for all Ethiopians. The regime can silence these champions of
freedom. It can traumatize Nafkote and millions of children who have no home or
hope. I predict that it cannot halt the inevitable march for human dignity,
honor, justice, the rule of law and political pluralism.
What do
Ethiopians really want and wish for?
The above
Ethiopian heroes and the many before them want the same thing that millions
stood and fought for during the 2005 elections; close to 50, 000 innocent
Ethiopians, most of them young were jailed for; 200 lives lost for; and for
which an untold number flee their homes and country in search of a better life
that comes only from economic and political freedom. When I suggest that
Ethiopians must unite across ethnic, religious, gender and demographic lines, I
recognize that this will not be easy. There must be
a change in the paradigm of thinking. At the same time, I am not aware
of any country where human dignity and honor for all; justice and equitable
access to economic and social opportunities; the right to vote in a free and
fair election process; and the power to hold representatives and government
officials accountable comes easily and or is delivered on a silver platter. The
supremacy of ordinary citizens (together) over their government and elected
leaders comes from people’s will and resolve, organization, patience and
perseverance, organization and disciple and their belief in their own future
and the future of their children. Ethiopia’s
youthful generation and those of us in the Diaspora who support their wishes
and aspirations have to cooperate and collaborate if we genuinely choose the
fundamental right to speak, associate and move freely and overcome constant
fear, disempowerment, disenfranchisement, hunger and poverty. This is why I
suggest that division is our Achilles heel.
In a
rejoinder to my series that an individual Ethiopian posted on Websites, he more
or less endorsed the material and strategic reasoning behind “Why Ethiopians
Must Unite;” and questioned how this could be done. This is a fair point; I had
planned to suggest alternatives that activists could consider. I shall present
them in Part Six next week. I am sure talking heads will counter the
recommendations by stating the obvious. By this, I mean, the mindset common
among Ethiopians in the Diaspora of “I know it; and what is new?” Keep in mind
what ordinary Ethiopians who live under constant fear would ask you. If you
know the problem that should take “fifty-five minutes to diagnose; and arrive
at a solution that takes only five minutes,” how come you have not resolved it?
Those who ask these kinds of questions fail to recognize that establishing any
organization with vision, mission and priority goals is not the same as
delivering outcomes. The most effective criteria of success are the result that
it produces. The judges of success are solely the Ethiopian people and those in
the forefront of the struggle.
As an a
prelude to next week’s provocative set of recommendations, I would like to
suggest that activists in the Diaspora have the requisite talent pool in every
conceivable field; the professional, technical and managerial knowledge and
experience; the diplomatic leverage; and the financial resources to advance the
causes of human rights and civil liberties, freedom and political pluralism in
their country of origin, Ethiopia. What is needed
is unity of purpose and the will, commitment and responsiveness, strategic
thinking and results orientation, steadfastness, agility and flexibility, discipline,
a sense of urgency; and the wisdom to appreciate the power and value of
cooperation and collaboration in advancing the interests of the Ethiopian
people.
