WikiLeaks: Egypt’s secretive approach to Ethiopian dams on Nile

The Egyptians are keen on maintaining their cool. They want to avoid
repeating former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat’s threat to dombard
Ethiopia. Sadat’s unfortunate remarks have had soured the two countries’
relations since then. The Egyptians believe the Ethiopians are mainly
aiming at causing Egypt to respond wrongly by calling for postponing the
construction of dams and hydraulic power plants instead from returning to
the negotiating table to resume the search for an agreement.

Certainly. Umar Suleiman accompanied prime minister Ahmad Abu al-Ghayt
during his visit to Khartum last week. The Egyptians do not want to see
the southern Sudan becoming independent. They feel that the independence
of the south will increase Egypt’s problems with regard to to the waters
of the Nile. The Egyptians are also interested in ending darfur’s crisis
and stabilizing the Sudan. They see the stability of Sudan extremely vital
for Egypt’s national security. The Egyptians believe the solution of the
Nile crisis must be diplomatic and inculde the head water and riparian
countries. They believe joint developmental programs provide the ultimate
answer to sharing the waters of the Nile. The problem is that most of
these countries are very unstable and are not ready for serious and long
term regional cooperation. Umar Suleiman wanted to see if Umar al=Bashir
was willing to allow Egyptian troops, including commando units, to be
quietly stationed in Sudan for the unlikely possibility of surgical action
such as blowing up dams under construction. I might want to emphasize that
these sources insist the Egyptian government will do all it could to avoid
this type of action to resolve the crisis. They argue that Egypt needs
more water from the Nile and less and that the only way to get more water
is through regional cooperation that includes the provision of more
technical assistance to them by Egypt.

These dams will have no impact on the water shares of Egypt and Sudan
since the waters that will be stored behind the dams for power generation
will eventually be returned to the river. A source says Ethiopia has
pledged, and submitted documents to that effect, that it would never store
water behind the dam for irrigation purposes. He also says that when
Ethiopia builds all 40 dams (this will need many years before completion
since it does not have the money or the financing), the shares both of
Egypt and Sudan would be reduced by about eight billion cubic meters of
water.

Egypt cannot deny Ethipoia’s right to develop and build dams for power
generation and irrigation. This is the reason why they are playing a very
calculated diplomatic game. They do not want to make mistakes.

Many Egyptians are seeing a calamity in the making. Its effects will be
felt in 20-50 years. Diplomacy is the best approach they can pursue.
Nevertheless, they are making contingency plans for the worst, including
surgical commando operations. It is most unlikely that they will resort to
them in the foreseeable future. The Egyptians are confident that
international donors will not invest in controversial water projects along
the Nile unless the concerned countries reach unanimity on the matter.
Egypt is proposing long term polans that include the development of
African countries along the Nile so that Egypt could purchase its food
and cattle from them.